Commanders vs Seahawks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 10: Closer Than They Appear

It’s a coast-to-coast contest when the Washington Commanders cross the country to face the Seattle Seahawks and settle the Week 10 odds.

Washington earned just its second win in the last seven outings at New England last weekend and now travels for the second straight game, which also serves as its fourth road trip in the past five weeks.

Seattle, on the other hand, is still stinging from its worst showing of the season. The Seahawks were blasted by 30 points in Baltimore last time out and hope the return home can help them cover the NFL odds before a daunting schedule stretch ahead.

I break down the spread and Over/Under total for this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff and give my free NFL picks and predictions for Commanders at Seahawks on November 12.

Commanders vs Seahawks odds

Commanders vs Seahawks predictions

If you follow me each week, you know I’m jumping into the opening NFL odds the second they hit the board on Sunday nights with my weekly Bet Now/Bet Later column. One of the first Week 10 wagers I placed was taking the Over 44 points for this game.

This total has since climbed to as high as 45.5 points, but there are some books dealing this number as low as 44.5 Over/Under. I strongly believe the potential for plenty of points is there.

The Commanders offense is turning a corner at the midway mark of the schedule, with QB Sam Howell picking up the pace of his passing and avoiding drive-killing sacks that sandbagged this offense in the first seven weeks.

Howell and the offensive line have given up only four total sacks the last two games – versus an average of almost six per game to start the season – and his passing numbers have improved. Howell has thrown for a grand total of 722 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions against solid defensive opposition from Philadelphia and New England.

Those efforts have the Commanders ranking No. 8 in EPA per play since Week 8, versus a rating of 22nd in the first seven games. That advanced metric would be higher if Washington had cashed in more of its red zone trips against the Patriots last Sunday, finishing the day 1-for-4 inside the New England's 20-yard line.

The Seahawks defense could remedy that issue for the Commies. Seattle has been steady in some defensive measurements but bottoming out in other key stats like third-down defense and inside the red zone. The Seahawks have allowed touchdowns on 66.67% of their competitors' shots inside the 20-yard line (28th in the league).

As for Seattle’s offense, it sees a major spin in quality of opponent in Week 10. Quarterback Geno Smith’s numbers took a hit versus the likes of Cleveland and Baltimore — two of the top-rated stop units in the land — but gets a big break against the Commanders.

Washington has been burned by opposing passers so far in 2023, giving up the second-most air yards and an average of 7.2 yards per attempt (28th). The Commanders pass rush has been gutted by the trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat, which means Smith will have time in the pocket to let deeper plays develop.

Smith averages 8.1 yards per attempt when kept clean (seventh-highest among QBs) which is a situation he hasn’t seen much of, entering Week 10 as the fifth-most pressured passer in the NFL. Despite that, Geno still ranks Top 10 in completed air yards and has hit 16 passing plays of 25 yards or more this season.

This is definitely a “buy low” spot on two offenses that put forth low-scoring showings in Week 9. Both teams have much more firepower than the market is accounting for, especially with the poor quality of defense taking the field in Seattle Sunday afternoon.

My best bet: Over 44.5 (-117 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Commanders vs Seahawks same-game parlay

Over 44.5

Brian Robinson Over 46.5 rush yards

DK Metcalf anytime TD

50% boost available

+625 +937 at bet365

With Washington's offense showing life and its defense giving up big gains through the air, this will be a shootout in Seattle.

Brian Robinson is coming off two strong showings on the ground, and player projections have him going for 60-plus yards in Week 10.

The Commanders allow the most passing touchdowns, and DK Metcalf is bound to break a big one for six points on Sunday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Commanders vs Seahawks spread and Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead line, before the events of Week 9, listed Seattle as a 6.5-point home favorite. But with Washington scoring a victory and the Seahawks getting slammed by the Ravens, the official Week 10 opener hit the board at Seattle -6.

My NFL power ratings produced an unadjusted spread beyond a touchdown for this game and Covers Consensus is showing 64% of the early picks laying the points with the home side.

Before even getting into the matchups, this Week 10 stop in Seattle is the final chapter of a daunting stretch of schedule for Washington. Not only is this the team’s second straight road game but it will be the fourth away game in five weeks and the fifth road stop in the past seven games, going back to October 1.

The second half of the season will be an interesting one for Washington, which was actively shipping out key players during the recent trade deadline. The defense lost top pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat and faces a formidable offensive opponent in the Seahawks.

Seattle has plenty of ways to hurt you, bringing a balanced attack to the field and sitting 14th in EPA per play and 10th in points per play on the season. However, it has stalled out a bit in recent weeks, dropping to 24th in EPA per play since Week 4.

Could the Commanders defense be the wake-up call Geno Smith & Co. need? Washington sits near the bottom in most advanced defensive metrics and is allowing the third-highest points per play measurement in the land.

The pass rush used to be the heart of this D.C. stop unit but that hasn’t been the case in 2023, as Washington’s pressure rate per dropback sits in the second half of the league and had its biggest fangs ripped out at the deadline.

Luckily, the Commanders have been able to counter with improved offense from Howell. After getting blasted by sacks in the first seven games, Howell is doing a much better job getting rid of the ball and avoiding those crippling losses in the last two outings.

He’s passed for 300-plus yards in those efforts and has Washington in the Top 10 in EPA per dropback since Week 8. The Commanders left plenty of points on the table last week, finishing 1-for-4 inside the red zone in the 20-17 victory over the Patriots.

This Over/Under total opened as low as 44 points on Sunday night and quickly jumped to as high as 45.5 points, as of Tuesday. Covers Consensus shows 52% of early picks on the Over Sunday afternoon.

The forecast for Lumen Field is calling for light rains, which will at least be there in the first half of this 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff. Winds were looking stronger in the extended forecast but aren’t expected to top gusts of 10 mph as we get closer to the weekend.

Washington is 4-5 Over/Under on the season, having topped the total only once in the past four outings. The Commanders sit in the middle of the pack in terms of tempo but have been known to utilize more no-huddle than most teams.

Seattle boasts a 3-5 O/U count in 2023, staying below the number in four of its last five games. The Seahawks sit 10th in terms of pace (seconds per snap) and average more than four points extra at home compared to the road. 

Commanders vs Seahawks betting trend to know

Seattle head coach Pete Carroll is 48-29-4 ATS when coming off a loss during this time with the franchise (since 2010). Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Seahawks.

Commanders vs Seahawks game info

Commanders vs Seahawks latest injuries

Commanders vs Seahawks weather

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