Two teams on opposite ends of the NFC food chain collide in Week 11 odds, with the Dallas Cowboys laying double figures when they visit the Carolina Panthers this Sunday.
The NFL odds have set Dallas as 10.5-point road chalk, marking the second straight week the Cowboys have been double-digit favorites. They made good as 17.5-point home faves in Week 10, blasting the New York Giants and improving favorites of -10 or higher to 8-2 ATS on the season.
Meanwhile, Carolina has just one win to its name at 1-8, and its record against the spread isn’t much prettier.
The Panthers enter Week 11 at 1-6-2 ATS but enjoyed a mini-bye after losing last Thursday. That means they could have some extra bodies back on defense in time to battle Dallas’ high-octane offense.
I run down the point spread and Over/Under total for this showdown in Charlotte and give my best NFL picks for Cowboys vs. Panthers on November 19.
Cowboys vs Panthers odds
Cowboys vs Panthers predictions
The Dallas Cowboys have been involved in some of the most one-sided wins so far in 2023.
Dallas started the season with a 40-0 flogging of the New York Giants in Week 1 and has since smashed the Jets by 20 points, pounded the Patriots by 35 points, rolled the Rams by 23, and most recently gave the Giants another ass waxing with a 49-17 victory last Sunday.
All but the Week 1 win came inside AT&T Stadium, where Dallas averages 40 points per game. However, while the Cowboys have been one of the highest-scoring home teams over the past four seasons, they do see a massive downtick when taking this offense on the road.
The Cowboys’ scoring rate slips to 21.8 points per road game and Dallas has averaged almost 10 points less away from Arlington over the past four seasons.
It’s why “America’s Team” is 4-0 Over/Under on its team total at home in 2023 (22-8 O/U since 2020) and just 2-3 O/U versus its TT on the road (15-15-1 O/U since 2020). The Cowboys’ Week 11 team total sits at 26.5 Over/Under in Carolina.
Dallas hasn’t surpassed this bar in four of its five road games, and even in that 40-0 win in the season opener in East Rutherford, the Cowboys' offense was responsible for only 27 of those points (they scored a blocked FG return for TD and had an INT for TD).
In the role of visitor, Dallas sees a drop in yards per play, third-down conversions, and red-zone touchdown percentage. Granted, it has faced some formidable defenses away from home — like San Francisco and Philadelphia — but it also comes out flat against porous stop units like the Cardinals and the Chargers.
The Carolina Panthers aren’t among the defensive elite, sitting near the bottom in most advanced measurements, but they do tend to slow down foes in Charlotte. They’re allowing just 20.3 points per game as a host versus 32.2 as a visitor and are expected to get key starters back in the secondary, as well as top linebacker Brian Burns.
Another reason why we could see fewer points from Dallas in Week 11 is the game script set up by this big spread, as well as the situational spot for the Cowboys, with their annual Thanksgiving Thursday showcase just four days away.
The lofty spread says Dallas should be up big, which means the offense will play a much slower tempo, run the ball, and protect that lead in the second half.
We’ve already seen head coach Mike McCarthy pull his starters in the second half of blowouts. With such a tight turnaround to Thursday’s game, he will be very mindful of any additional rest he can provide his stars this Sunday.
I expect Dallas to come out swinging, build a lead, and then coast to the finish line, staying below its team total of 26.5 points.
My best bet: Dallas Cowboys team total Under 26.5 (+104 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Cowboys vs Panthers same-game parlay
Cowboys team total Under 27.5
Cowboys first half -6.5
Dak Prescott Under 251.5 passing yards
The Cowboys aren’t the same offense on the road and the Panthers will provide more pushback with some key defensive players back on the field.
Dallas boasts the best 1H scoring attack in the land and will come out swinging in the opening 30 minutes, trying to build a cushion before the break. Dak Prescott sees his splits slip on the road and in outdoor venues and will be handing off a lot in the 2H with the potential to rest in the final frame.
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Cowboys vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis
The look-ahead line before the results from Week 10 was as low as Cowboys -8.5. But with Carolina losing to Chicago on Thursday Night Football and Dallas dominating the Giants, the official Week 11 opener hit the board at Cowboys -10.
That spread jumped off the key number and climbed as high as -11 before buyback on the Panthers trimmed the spread to Dallas -10.5. According to Covers Consensus, 71% of picks are backing the road team as of Thursday morning.
While we see one-sided play on the Cowboys, there is a situational edge for Carolina to consider in Week 11. The Panthers have 10 days off after playing last Thursday and Dallas is in a potential lookahead spot, with its annual Thanksgiving Thursday homestand in four days.
Simply measuring these two teams quickly explains why oddsmakers are gifting Carolina more than 10 points.
The Panthers offense is out of its depth against a disruptive Dallas defense and Carolina is going through another transition, with play-calling duties returning to head coach Frank Reich after offensive coordinator Thomas Brown couldn’t kick-start the offense.
Carolina sits 29th in EPA per play and 31st in Offensive DVOA at FTN — the two leading advanced metrics for measuring a team’s true fortitude. The Panthers have scored more than 20 points in only three of their nine games, with rookie quarterback Bryce Young struggling to keep pace in the pro game.
Young and the passing attack sit second lowest in yards per attempt, with the first-year QB getting blasted by opposing pass rushes. Young has been sacked 29 times and has been under pressure on more than 23% of his dropbacks.
Dallas’ defense isn’t as dangerous as in past seasons, but this pass rush is the beating heart of Dan Quinn’s defense. The Cowboys are No. 1 in pass rush win rate at ESPN and that chaos up front has forced foes into making mistakes, leading to 10 interceptions on the season.
As for the Cowboys offense, those extra possessions have helped power a group rank No. 5 in EPA per play and average just under 30 points per contest. That said, Dallas does see some notable scoring splits on the road, putting up just 21.8 points as a visitor versus 40 points per homestand.
The Panthers defense, which sits 26th in DVOA, has been riddled by injuries in the first half of the season but is expecting starters back at a few levels this Sunday.
The secondary got safety Xavier Woods back last week and is hoping corner C.J. Henderson will be in action in Week 11. Top linebacker Brian Burns was back at practice as well, after missing Week 10 with a concussion.
The Over/Under total for this Week 11 matchup opened at 42 points and has bounced between that number and 42.5 points this week. Covers Consensus shows 68% of picks taking the Over.
The Cowboys have been able to crush weaker foes with strong first halves, before taking their foot off the gas and resting starters in the final 30 minutes. Dallas owns a 6-3 O/U count on the season but has gone 3-2 O/U on the road.
Carolina is 3-6 Over/Under, with a 0-4 O/U mark inside Bank of America Stadium. The Panthers do run one of the quicker tempos in the NFL (28.1 seconds per snap), which is more of a reflection of the team trailing in most contests and having to play quicker from behind. Reich taking over play-calling duties means much less pre-snap motion and potentially more no-huddle.
Cowboys vs Panthers betting trend to know
Dallas is 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite since 2017, including going 2-1 SU and ATS as road faves of -10 points or more. Find more NFL betting trends for Cowboys vs. Panthers.
Cowboys vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Sunday, November 19, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Panthers +10, O/U 40.5 |
Cowboys vs Panthers latest injuries
Cowboys vs Panthers weather
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