The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Rams are heading in opposite directions in the NFL power ratings and clash in a coast-to-coast contest on Monday Night Football in Week 10.
Miami lugs a three-game losing skid to the left side of the country where it faces a red-hot L.A. squad on a three-game winning streak inside SoFi Stadium. Despite carrying one of the taller totals of Week 10, tonight's Dolphins vs. Rams predictions back the Over.
Find out why in my NFL picks for Monday, November 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 at Sofi Stadium in Inglewood, with the game airing on ESPN.
For more, don't forget our Dolphins vs Rams props and a special spotlight on Tua Tagovailoa odds.
Dolphins vs Rams MNF prediction
My best bet
Over 48.5 Points (-115 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Since returning quarterback Tua Tagovailoa from a concussion, the Miami Dolphins offense has looked extremely strong.
In Tua’s two games back, the Fins have finished with 54 combined points on 750 total yards, picking up more than six yards per play in those outings. The Dolphins also play nice with the advanced metrics, ranking No. 2 in EPA per play and No. 1 in success rate per snap since Week 8.
Miami faces a Los Angeles Rams defense that isn’t as stingy as it looks on the surface. Los Angeles has allowed just 55 total points during this winning streak but caught breaks with a mid-week matchup with Minnesota at home and a disjoined finish in the win over Seattle in Week 9.
Los Angeles gave up 424 yards to the Seahawks but thanks to two red zone interceptions from Seattle QB Geno Smith — one of which was returned for a pick-six — the final score doesn’t show just how much L.A. bent last Sunday.
The Dolphins’ budding blend of run/pass presents a tough test for the Rams, especially if WR Tyreek Hill is healthy. While the injury report lists the speedy receiver as questionable, Hill posted on social media from the team’s plane and sounded like he was ready to play Monday night.
The Dolphins will need all the points they can get, considering how bad their defense has done. Miami has allowed 58 points against the past two games and is susceptible to potent pass attacks, ranked 25th in EPA allowed per dropback.
As for the Rams, returnees have also sparked Los Angeles’ scoring, with WRs Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacau coming back from injury during this three-game run. The Rams have put up 56 total points in the past two outings, ranking 10th in EPA per play since Week 8.
Miami’s defense isn’t presenting much pressure on opposing passers, rated 11th lowest in pressure rate with the second-fewest sacks on the season. That bodes well for L.A. quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is among the top QBs in the NFL when kept clean (but sees a significant slide when under duress). The veteran passer also prefers playing indoors, as we see a significant split in production between venues, and he’ll let it fly on the fast track inside SoFi on Monday.
This total currently sits at 48.5 after coming down from 50.5 earlier in the week. With Hill’s status worth at least a point to the number and rumblings saying he’ll play, we’ll likely see this climb up on game day. The Fins have easily toppled totals since Tagovailoa’s return and the Rams' offense will be able to trade blows.
Dolphins vs Rams MNF same-game parlay
Over 48.5 Points
Puka Nacua anytime touchdown
Matthew Stafford 2+ passing touchdown
You have two offenses heating up and two ho-hum defenses playing on the fast indoor surface of SoFi. It makes for plenty of points.
Nacau should be anxious to get out there after getting tossed in the second quarter of last week’s win over Seattle. Fresh legs will find the end zone.
The Dolphins are dreadful versus the pass, allowing five passing touchdowns in the past two games. Stafford has struck for six TD throws in the last two games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Dolphins vs Rams odds
Dolphins vs Rams live odds
Dolphins vs Rams opening odds
- Spread: Miami +2.5 | Los Angeles -2.5
- Moneyline: Miami +115 | Los Angeles -130
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Dolphins vs Rams spread and Over/Under analysis
- Oddsmakers opened this game with Los Angeles as a 2.5-point home favorite and that slimmed up quickly to L.A. -1.5, where it has stayed most of the week.
- According to Covers Consensus, 69% of picks are laying the short points with the Rams.
- The total opened at 50.5 points and dipped as low as 48.5, with Tyreek Hill showing up on the injury report. However, we are seeing some movement back to 49.5 O/U.
- Covers Consensus shows 55% picks on the total siding with the Over.
Dolphins vs Rams betting trend to know
In 20 regular season road games under head coach Mike MacDaniel, Miami is 13-7 Over/Under – playing Over the total in 65% of those away tilts. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Rams.
How to watch Dolphins vs Rams
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Monday, 11-11, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
Learn how to live stream Dolphins vs. Rams for free.
Dolphins vs Rams latest injuries
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