This weekend's Wild Card odds slate reaches its conclusion tonight when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers — a surprising playoff pairing in the NFC.
Philadelphia seemed destined for at least the No. 2 seed in the conference as an early-season Super Bowl odds leader, but a late-season freefall has the Eagles lugging a 1-5 SU slump (0-6 ATS) into the postseason.
Tampa Bay, on the other hand, was able to do enough to secure the NFC South title and the home playoff game that comes with it, closing the regular season on a 5-1 SU streak (4-2 ATS). Despite the hot form, the NFL odds have the Buccaneers as home underdogs for this 8 p.m. ET kickoff.
I dissect the spread and betting total for Monday night's Wild Card matchup and give out my free NFL picks and predictions for Eagles vs. Buccaneers on January 15.
Be sure to also check out our Jalen Hurts odds' spotlight and Eagles vs. Buccaneers props.
Eagles vs Buccaneers odds
Eagles vs Buccaneers predictions
One of my first bets of the Wild Card Weekend was grabbing the Under on the total for his Wild Card Weekend finale.
That bet was made at 45 points on Sunday evening in the seconds after odds became available, but even with the dip in the total, I still think the Under is the right side.
A lot of the Eagles’ issues have been on the defensive side of the ball, but the offense has been just as inept during Philly’s faceplant.
The playbook has been bland and predictable, as well as too reliant on deep strikes to move the chains. Opponents caught on and stymied that downfield attack. And with the defense unable to keep foes from scoring, Philadelphia has had to play from behind and abandon its vaunted rushing game.
Even without those late-season issues front of mind, the Eagles — namely Jalen Hurts —have had troubles with Tampa Bay and Todd Bowles’ defensive schemes.
In three matchups versus Bowles and the Buccaneers, Philadelphia’s passer owns a QB rating of just 63.01 with three touchdown passes to five interceptions. Tampa has also done a good job bottling up Hurts on the ground, holding him to 44 rushing yards or less and an average of only 3.96 yards per run.
The Bucs bring their best on defense inside pirate waters this year. Tampa Bay allows just over 17 points against per home stand while checking foes to the fourth-fewest yards per play. It also boasts the third-best red zone defense in the land, giving up a touchdown on only 42.6% of RZ stands.
Offensively, the Buccaneers can help out their stop unit by playing possession football and keeping the Eagles offense on the sideline. Tampa Bay isn’t the most high-powered attack (sixth lowest points per play at home in the NFL), but it is efficient.
The Bucs ranked No. 3 in EPA per play on third/fourth downs and finished Top 10 in third down conversions percentage on the season. The Eagles defense, as it would be, finished 31st in EPA allowed on third/fourth down, allowed a 50.9% success rate on those crucial downs (31st), and watched opponents convert on third down at a 46.35% clip (second-highest).
Adding to potential for a low-scoring finish in Florida is a forecast calling for rain and thunderstorms all day Monday and continuing throughout this primetime kickoffs. Humidity could also wear on teams as the game goes on, with the humidex at 90% and “feels like” temperatures around 80 degrees.
Both the Bucs and Eagles have totals trends that lean toward the Under, with Tampa Bay going 2-6 O/U at home and Philadelphia finishing 2-7 O/U as a visitor. These clubs have also stayed below the closing total in their last three meetings going back to 2021.
My best bet: Under 43.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Eagles vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Under 43.5
Chris Godwin Over 56.5 receiving yards
Jalen Hurts anytime TD
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Tampa Bay plays “keep away” and the Eagles offense continues to come up short, all played in less-than-ideal conditions. Sounds like an Under.
Chris Godwin has had good games versus Philly and his player models call for 60-plus yards Monday night.
If the Eagles get a short-and-goal situation, you know the “Brotherly Shove” is coming. Hurts has scored three rushing TDs vs. the Bucs in his three career matchups.
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Eagles vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
Philadelphia was fighting to get right in the Week 18 finale with the New York Giants, but a disastrous first half continued the Eagles’ late-season swoon and dealt this already banged-up depth chart some unfortunate injuries.
Star receiver A.J. Brown went down with a knee injury, and Hurts suffered a dislocated middle finger on his throwing hand, while safety Sydney Brown left the game with a season-ending knee injury.
Given Philadelphia’s misfortunes and Tampa Bay securing the NFC South crown and subsequent home game, oddsmakers opened the Buccaneers as short as 1.5-point home underdogs last Sunday evening.
That spread didn’t last long, however. Once the schedule for Wild Card Weekend was released and Philadelphia was given an extra day to rest with this game set for Monday night, the market moved to Eagles -2.5.
That line stayed put for a couple days until positive reports out of Philly on Brown’s knee, as well as some other members of the offense made their way to the media. Books took action on the Eagles and moved to a field goal spread on Tuesday evening.
That’s where the current number is parked, with Tampa Bay getting +3 inside Raymond James Stadium. According to Covers Consensus, 58% of picks are backing Philadelphia as of Thursday afternoon.
Which Eagles team shows up is the big question. Philadelphia started the season as expected, jumping to the top of the NFC. However, a very challenging second-half slate saw the wheels wobble and then come fully off in the final six games.
Philly has ranked among the worst teams in the NFL since Week 13, sitting middle of the road in EPA per play on offense (going from No. 5 to No. 14) and falling all the way to 31st in EPA allowed per play during that span.
As for the Bucs, they leaned into their defense down the stretch, yet did play plenty of pop-gun offenses to close out the 2023 campaign. Tampa Bay ranked 14th in Defensive DVOA and 18th in EPA allowed per play, but that metric jumped to 10th since Week 13. That improvement coincided with a number of defensive starters recovering from mid-season ailments in time for the postseason push.
This Over/Under total opened as high as 45.5 and quickly took Under money in the minutes after opening, with bettors trying to get out ahead of any injury news around the Eagles stars.
The number slid as low as 43.5 points before getting some buyback to sit at 44 points O/U most of the week. According to Covers Consensus, 55% of early picks are backing the Under.
With rain showers and humid temperatures expected for Raymond James Stadium on Monday night, there has been recent movement back down to 43.5 points at some operators.
Eagles vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
Philadelphia is 2-7 Over/Under on the road while Tampa Bay is 2-6 Over/Under at home this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Eagles vs. Buccaneers.
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Eagles vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Monday, January 15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN, ABC |
| Opening odds: | Buccaneers +3, 45.5 O/U |
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