The Carolina Panthers are set to host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday in a Week 15 odds clash at Bank of America Stadium. The Falcons are in a three-way race for first place in the NFC South with a 6-7 record, while the Panthers currently hold the league's worst record at 1-12.
Despite a sizable gap between these teams in the standings, the NFL odds for this NFC South duel aren't too far apart, with the Falcons installed as 3-point road favorites. Here are my best free NFL picks for Falcons vs. Panthers on December 17.
Falcons vs Panthers odds
Falcons vs Panthers predictions
As if this wasn't going to be an ugly enough contest between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, the weather could make things even uglier. Heavy rain is expected in this contest with sustained winds above 15 mph and gusting into the 20s.
Both of these teams have horrible passing attacks to begin with, so expect even less success through the air from Bryce Young and Desmond Ridder. That will force both teams to rely on their ground games, but Carolina might not be able to move the chains with that method either.
The Panthers are just 26th in the league in rush EPA and now face a stout Falcons stop unit that ranks second in defensive rush EPA. In theory, Atlanta should boast a much more productive rushing attack, especially with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier at running back.
Expect the Falcons to heavily lean on Robinson on Sunday. The first-round rookie has rushed for 790 yards with 4.7 yards per carry and he'll face a Panthers defense that ranks dead-last in the league in rush EPA and success rate. While Robinson was held to a total of 87 yards on 28 carries in the last two weeks against stout Bucs and Jets defenses, he'll find it easier to churn out yards against Carolina.
Due to the game script, Robinson only logged 10 carries last week. However, in each of his previous three contests, he had at least 16 carries. With the weather curbing Ridder's pass attempts on Sunday, Robinson should surpass the Over 14.5 on his carries.
My best bet: Bijan Robinson Over 14.5 rush attempts (-115)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Falcons vs Panthers same-game parlay
Bijan Robinson Over 14.5 rushing attempts
Panthers +3.5
Under 33.5
While the Panthers are the worst team in the NFL, this seems like an ideal spot to grab them with the points. Playing at home, they are catching a field goal against a banged-up team that's likely looking past them. Considering the Falcons' tendency to rarely win with a significant margin and factoring in the messy weather, I'm adjusting the Panthers' spread to +3.5 to include it in this SGP.
These have been two of the most pathetic offenses in the league all season and the brutal weather on Sunday will only magnify those issues. While the total is sitting at an extremely low 33.5, keep in mind that games that have closed with an O/U of lower than 37 have gone 10-4 to the Under this year.
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Falcons vs Panthers spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with the Falcons at -3 and has stayed at that number all week, with some books pricing the Falcons at -105. The total opened at 35 and has ticked down to as low as 33 due to the inclement weather expected for the game.
The Panthers are just 1-12 straight up this season while covering the spread just twice. All 12 of their defeats have come by at least a field goal, with three coming by exactly a field goal.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off a 29-25 loss to the Bucs. They are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games, and while they are one game below .500, they are still tied for first place in the NFC South.
Atlanta's normally strong run defense could be hindered by injuries on Sunday. Top defensive lineman Gray Jarrett suffered a season-ending injury back in Week 8. Fellow D-line starter Kentavius Street will be sidelined this week, while another lineman, David Onyemata and middle linebacker Nate Landman are both questionable. The Falcons are also hurting on the offensive line with right tackle Kaleb McGary sidelined and three other starters questionable.
Falcons vs Panthers betting trend to know
The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these NFC South rivals. Find more NFL betting trends for Falcons vs. Panthers.
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Falcons vs Panthers game info
| Location: | Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC |
| Date: | Sunday, December 17, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Panthers +3, O/U 35.5 |
Falcons vs Panthers latest injuries
Falcons vs Panthers weather
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