Falcons vs Panthers TNF Prop Bets: QBs Struggle to Get Going In the Air

Bettors could be seeing another slow-paced low-scoring affair tonight as the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers meet for the second time in three weeks. 

The first meeting saw 71 total points scored, but a change in venue with some possible weather restrictions coupled with poor quarterback play is giving bettors some value in the NFL player props market.

Find out my best NFL player prop picks for Thursday Night Football between the Falcons and Panthers on November 10. Be sure to also check out Jason Logan's TNF betting picks and predictions before kickoff!

Falcons vs Panthers props

• Mariota Under 163.5 passing yards
• Walker Under 182.5 passing yards
• Allgeier Over 32.5 rushing yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Falcons vs Panthers TNF props

Slow and steady

With a game featuring Marcus Mariota, P.J. Walker, possible double-digit winds, and rain, bettors shouldn’t be getting their hopes up for a pass-heavy prime-time game Thursday night.

On the season, the Falcons are one of the slowest-paced teams in football, ranking 30th in sec/play and 32nd when playing with a 7-point lead or more. They are also the slowest first-half team in football and run the ball at the second-highest rate in the league at 57.7%.

Atlanta also got Cordarrelle Patterson back last week and ran him, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley pretty evenly in a game that had a very neutral game script. This heavy running attack now faces a Carolina defense that gave up 153 rushing yards to Joe Mixon last week, who increased his total rushing yards by 26% with the performance.

Add in some rain and wind and we’re going to see a ton of running from the Falcons, meaning Mariota won’t be asked to do much in the passing game yet again. He’s been held to Under 150 yards passing in five of his last six starts. The Only Over was vs. the Panthers indoors at home in Week 7.

Bet365 is giving us 163.5 yards at +110 to the Under while some other books are as short as 159.5. He’s 7-2 to the Under on the season and this total is the same as the Week 7 game vs. the Panthers.

Mariota’s 61.7% completion percentage is just below Carson Wentz’s and ranks near the bottom of the league. There also isn’t much difference in his xComp% which indicates this is who he is as a passer. Even with a heavy rushing attack, the Atlanta QB isn’t taking advantage of it as he ranks as the 27th-most accurate passer using play action, per Player Profiler.

With an inaccurate QB, a healthy running back stable, and a projected slow pace of play with possible rain, I have no issues fading Mariota on the short week.

Marcus Mariota Prop: Under 163.5 passing yards (+110) 

Walking on eggshells

The steam is coming on P.J. Walker’s passing yards. His total opened at 185.5 and is low as 178.5 as of Wednesday. He was benched in the second half last week after completing just 3 of 10 passes with his team trailing 35-0 after 30 minutes. Baker Mayfield came in as relief and Walker’s leash could be really short once again.

Many will look to Walker’s performance two weeks ago in Atlanta when the Carolina QB finished with 317 passing yards, but he still completed just 19 of his 36 passes and finished with the lowest completion percentage above expected of the week. He’s completing just 61% of his passes from a clean pocket and 59% on the season. The passing conditions in his Week 7 effort were also much better than those he’ll face this week.

His passing total for that Week 7 game was also 183.5, making this week’s Under an easy play. THE BLITZ is projecting him for 156.23 yards and the threat of getting benched looms large in this game. 

The Atlanta secondary is dealing with some issues of its own but kept Justin Herbert in check last week to 5.7 yards per attempt and 245 yards indoors.

With a projected snail's pace of a game, it could also be difficult for the QB to find a rhythm. Carolina had just 34% of the time of possession last week vs. the Bengals and is converting third downs at the lowest rate in football at 27% on the season (25% last week).

With a short week, a QB who might not see the second half for a second straight week, and a Week 7 performance that wasn’t as good as it appeared, I’m happy doubling down on another QB Under here and would play it down to 170.5. 

P.J. Walker Prop: Under 182.5 passing yards (-120)

Second fiddle

Even with Corderrelle Patterson back last week and closing as 2.5-point underdogs, Tyler Allgeier still took 10 carries for 99 yards — including an early 44-yard run. Atlanta ran the ball over 58% of the time last week and despite a three-RB approach, still created output for all three of the backs.

With Thursday's conditions and game script, Allgeier should see 10-plus carries again on Thursday night vs. a defense that allowed 6.2 yards per carry on 39 rushes last week to the Bengals, who came in as one of the worst rushing teams in football (Joe Mixon was averaging 3.3 ypc before Week 9).

With a modest rushing total of 32.5, the dependable Allgeier is a great target for bettors predicting a slow and run-heavy approach from the Falcons on Thursday.

The fifth-round rookie has also been more efficient with Patterson in the lineup as he is averaging 6.6 ypc (238 attempts) while splitting snaps and had 3.19 ypc in the four weeks Patterson was out.

Top-12 RBs in yards after contact/att in Week 9:
1) Allgeier 6.7
2) Michael Carter 6.1
3) Henry 5.0
4) Conner 4.4
5) Mixon 4.1
6) Jacobs 3.9
7) Pierce 3.8
8) Isaiah Spiller 3.3
9) Henderson 3.25
10) Sanders 3.2
11) Brian Robinson 3.15
12) Jeff Wilson 3.11

Per @TruMediaSports

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) November 7, 2022

With Atlanta keeping its backs fresh and Allgeier having as many 40-yard rushes as Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry on the year, the more explosive back could hit the Over early Thursday night. He might not start nor finish with the most carries, but I like his probability to hit the Over on his rushing total much more than Patterson (51.5).

Tyler Allgeier Prop: Over 32.5 rushing yards (-110)

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