The regular season is coming to an end, and now we’re seeing teams start to rush to wrap up their spot in the playoffs. We’ve got a smaller NFL odds Sunday slate than usual with more games taking place earlier in Week 15, but we still have plenty of action to wager on.
We’re studying the first touchdown scorer markets to find three players who offer the perfect mix of value and opportunity to deliver some healthy returns.
Here are my best free NFL picks for first touchdown scorers on Sunday, December 17.
Week 15 first touchdown scorer props
- Bijan Robinson first touchdown (+650 at BetMGM)
- Jaylen Waddle first touchdown (+800 at DraftKings)
- Rashee Rice first touchdown (+800 at DraftKings)
Picks made on December 15 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 15 first TD scorer props
Prop bet #1: Here's to you, Mr. Robinson
The Falcons are 3-point favorites on the road to the Panthers, the worst team in the NFL. We’ve only seen Bijan Robinson pick up seven touchdowns so far this season, which is no doubt below the number that most people expected, but he’s clearly the best RB on the Falcons roster and should get the bulk of the carries here.
Getting the bulk of the carries against the Panthers means that the Bijan Robinson odds of being the first player to score a touchdown greatly increase. This Panthers have allowed a staggering 21 touchdowns to running backs, with 18 of those coming on the ground. That’s a league-high figure, and the Falcons will surely focus on using Robinson against the Panthers’ weak rush defense.
Bijan Robinson prop: First touchdown scorer (+650 at BetMGM)
Prop bet #2: Emperor penguin
When you’re looking at games to pick for a first touchdown scorer, one of the first ports of call is to look for the biggest spreads, which should help you narrow your player choice if there is one team far less likely to be scoring first. The Jets are 9.5-point dogs on the road to the Dolphins, the second-biggest spread of the week.
The Jaylen Waddle odds leap out among Dolphins players. Yes, the Jets’ pass D is very good, but with Tyreek Hill questionable to play, you’d have to think that Waddle should get plenty of work. Raheem Mostert, the lead running back, is a far shorter price, so at +800 I feel you’re getting real value here.
Jaylen Waddle prop: First touchdown scorer (+800 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Nice Rice
My favorite of the three first touchdown scorer bets is this one, the Chiefs’ Rashee Rice to open the scoring at a big +800. The Chiefs have been far below their usual standards recently but they’re a far better team than the Patriots, who are the lowest-scoring team in the NFL with an average of just 13 points scored per game.
If the Chiefs are going to score first, you instantly assume Travis Kelce will do it, but +450 doesn’t feel like good value when you learn that the Patriots have allowed just one TD to a tight end all season. Now consider the Rashee Rice odds of +800, a far bigger price on a player who is seeing his role in the offense grow. This past week he had an 82% route rate, his highest of the season. He offers by far the best value against a terrible Patriots team.
Rashee Rice prop: First touchdown scorer (+800 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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