It’s New Year’s Eve which means it’s the perfect time to end 2023 in style by breaking down the NFL odds and cashing on on some first touchdown scorers. We’ve got a fun slate to choose from among the Week 17 odds and we’ll hopefully land a winner or two. Last week none of our three hit but two of them did end up finding the endzone in their respective games. Let’s improve on that this week.
We’re studying the NFL player prop markets to find three players who offer the perfect mix of value and opportunity to deliver some healthy returns.
Let's take a look at my NFL picks for Week 17 first touchdown scorers.
Week 17 first touchdown scorer props
- Darren Waller (+1,800 at FanDuel)
- D'Andre Swift (+700 at DraftKings)
- Brandon Aiyuk (+800 at DraftKings)
Picks made on December 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Week 17 first TD scorer props
Prop bet #1: Break through the wall
First up this week we have a massive price in the Los Angeles Rams’ trip to New Jersey, to face the New York Giants. Our selection for the first touchdown at MetLife is Giants’ tight end Darren Waller. He’s only scored once this season but has missed a large chunk with injury.
Since returning from injury two weeks ago he’s had 11 targets, hauling six of them but having been a full participant in practice I’m expecting him to be healthy and ready to rock against a Rams’ defense that struggles to contain tight ends. Darren Waller is still an athletic freak and will be a major part of the Giants gameplan again a team who have given up eight touchdowns to TEs this season, the second-highest amount in the NFL behind the Broncos.
Darren Waller prop: First touchdown (+1,800 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #2: Swift in action
D’Andre Swift is the third favorite to score in the Arizona Cardinals' trip to the Linc behind AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts. However, I believe he should be the betting favorite in this particular market. Firstly, we’re likely to see the Philadelphia Eagles score first here, they’re 11-point favorites, the highest spread in the NFL this week.
Not only that but nobody in the league has given up more rushing yardage per game, with an average of 147 yards against. That’s a dangerous sign against a talented Eagles rushing attack. Swift has just six touchdowns on the season but if there were awards for getting within a yard of the endzone then Swift would surely be MVP. I think given the weaknesses of the Cards’ defense he should be able to find wrinkles and get in the endzone here, I expect that to be early in the game too.
D'Andre Swift prop: First touchdown (+700 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #3: Eye spy the endzone
I can’t understand why the San Francisco 49ers are only 3.5-point favorites on the road to a terrible Washington Commanders team. Only the Bucs have allowed more passing yardage per game than the Commanders and since losing Montez Sweat and Chase Young, now a Niner, they have even less ability to pressure the passer.
I’m expecting to see a passing touchdown early in this game and with Deebo Samuel being limited in practice this week means he might not be at 100%. That opens things up for Brandon Aiyuk, who put up a huge 113 yards against the Ravens in their last game. Aiyuk is the team’s best deep threat and I think he could be very dangerous against this weak Commanders secondary.
Brandon Aiyuk prop: First touchdown (+800 at DraftKings)
Not intended for use in MA.
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