New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones could be running for his life when the Pittsburgh Steelers host the G-Men on Monday Night Football.
Jones was blasted for seven sacks in last week’s loss and faces a disruptive Steelers defense in the Week 8 finale. That will have Jones relying on his legs to escape pressure and pick up gains on the ground.
I dissect the spread, total, and Giants vs. Steelers prop picks in my Giants vs. Steelers predictions for Monday Night Football and give my best NFL picks for October 28.
Giants vs Steelers MNF prediction
My best bet
Daniel Jones Over 25.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
My analysis
As mentioned above, it was a long day for Daniel Jones in Week 7 with the New York Giants giving up eight sacks to the Philadelphia Eagles, seven of which were on Jones before he was yanked in the fourth quarter.
Those pass protection problems aren’t going to be remedied in time for this showdown with the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday, especially with tackle Jermaine Eluemunor nursing a rib injury and fellow starting T Andrew Thomas on IR.
New York entered Week 8 ranked 16th in pass block win rate at ESPN and has allowed a pressure rate of 25% per dropback — seventh-highest — which has led to 22 sacks against. That lack of protection has seen Jones tucking and running more often than he’d like.
Jones is already a viable option on designed running plays. He’s carried the ball 50 times for 184 yards so far this season, which is enough to garner the attention of Pittsburgh’s defense and standout linebacker T.J. Watt, who told reporters he’ll be “ball searching” when Jones takes off.
"He's a big quarterback, fast guy," Watt told the media this weekend. "I think he's hit some top speeds over the past couple of years. A guy that doesn't seem to want to slide, he has that competitive edge to him where he's always trying to get to the line of gain."
Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed many rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season but hasn’t really played many any QBs capable to breaking off the same gains Jones can. The Steelers have faced the likes of Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Joe Flacco, Aiden O’Connell, and Aaron Rodgers.
In its limited snaps versus “dual-threat” passers, however, Pittsburgh allowed 25 yards on four carries to Denver rookie QB Bo Nix and gave up 24 rushing yards on four runs to Indianapolis’ Anthony Richardson before he left due to injury in Week 4.
Jones has rushed for 20 or more yards in five of seven games, and before carrying five times for 20 yards against the Eagles last Sunday, he had twin 11-run efforts for 38 and 56 yards in Weeks 5 and 6.
Week 8 player projections for Jones range from 21 to 33 yards, with my number coming in just shy of 31 yards rushing for the Giants’ quarterback. That’ll get my best bet of Over Jones’ rushing yards total of 25.5 O/U.
Giants vs Steelers MNF same-game parlay
Daniel Jones Over 25.5 rushing yards
Wan'Dale Robinson 25+ receiving yards
Najee Harris anytime TD
Jones’ pass protection is poor and that could have him running more, with projections are high as 33 rushing yards.
Even with Malik Nabers back, Wan'Dale Robinson is drawing his share of targets and models call for as many as 44 yards on MNF.
The Giants run defense got mashed last week and with Russell Wilson under center for Pittsburgh, Najee Harris will get the goal line carries instead of Justin Fields vulturing those RZ carries.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Giants vs Steelers odds
Giants vs Steelers live odds
Giants vs Steelers opening odds
- Spread: New York +4.5 | Pittsburgh -4.5
- Moneyline: New York +205 | Pittsburgh -250
- Over/Under: Over 37.5 | Under 37.5
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Giants vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis
• This spread opened as big as Steelers -6 early Monday morning, with the Steelers putting together an impressive two-way win over the New York Jets on Sunday Night Football. That bumped the initial line to -6.5.
• However, that half-point hook took action on the Giants and dropped to Pittsburgh through the key number of six to as low as -5.5 for Week 8. As of Sunday afternoon, this spread is bouncing between Steelers -5.5 and -6 with Covers Consensus showing 72% picks on the home team.
• As for the total, it opened at 37.5 points and has dipped to 36 points with play on the Under. According to Covers Consensus, 64% of picks are backing the Under on MNF.
Giants vs Steelers betting trend to know
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is 47-25-1 SU and 42-31 ATS (57.5%) in non-conference regular season games during his tenue in Pittsburgh (since 2007). Find more NFL betting trends for Giants vs. Steelers.
Giants vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Monday, 10-28-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN or ABC |
Giants vs Steelers latest injuries
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