The reeling Jacksonville Jaguars head to Ford Field to face the Detroit Lions on Sunday afternoon.
Detroit is expected to roll to victory, which is why my Jaguars vs. Lions predictions are betting on a low-volume game from quarterback Jared Goff.
Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 11 clash on November 17.
Jaguars vs Lions prediction
My best bet
Jared Goff Under 29.5 passing attempts (-130 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Detroit Lions are 8-1 straight up and 7-2 against the spread and lead the NFL in average scoring margin at +12.6 points per game. They tend to perform even better at home, and this week they host the Jacksonville Jaguars, who are 2-8 with an average scoring margin of -6.2 points per game.
Add in the fact that Jacksonville will start backup quarterback Mac Jones after he threw for just 111 yards with two picks last week, and it makes sense why this spread is so large.
What doesn't make sense is why Jared Goff's passing attempts are listed at 29.5 in Week 11, in what's expected to be a blowout victory for Detroit. Goff barely exceeded this number last week by finishing with 30 pass attempts, and that was with a negative game script since the Lions were trailing 23-7 at halftime.
Goff had gone well below this number in his previous six contests and averaged just 21.3 pass attempts per game over that span. This is a Lions offense that ranks fourth in the league in rushing play percentage (51.1%), and their tendency to run the ball is even more emphasized in lopsided wins.
Jaguars vs Lions same-game parlay
Jared Goff Under 29.5 passing attempts
Lions -13.5
Evan Engram Over 5.5 receptions
This is a lot of chalk to swallow but the Lions have been ATS darlings, especially at home where they've gone 22-9 ATS during the Dan Campbell era. They were laying 13 points against the Titans in Week 8 and easily covered in a 52-14 victory.
It's also worth mentioning that Detroit is coming off an ugly five-interception start from the usually reliable Goff and still managed to beat a good Texans squad on the road. Meanwhile, the Jags benefitted from a brutal three-interception performance from Sam Darnold last week and still found a way to come out on the losing side.
Jones struggled last week but every weak-armed quarterback needs an outlet receiver and Evan Engram led the Jags with six catches. Jones finished with just 22 pass attempts in an ugly low-scoring game, and eight of those throws went Engram's way.
In what should turn into a negative game script, Jones will throw more this Sunday — which means even more targets for his tight end.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Jaguars vs Lions odds
Jaguars vs Lions live odds
Jaguars vs Lions opening odds
- Spread: Jacksonville +13 | Detroit -13
- Moneyline: Jacksonville +550 | Detroit -800
- Over/Under: Over 47.5 | Under 47.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jaguars vs Lions spread and Over/Under analysis
- The lookahead line for this game had the Lions at -10, but with Lawrence ruled out again, Detroit has moved as high as -14.
- The lookahead O/U was initially listed at 50.5, but it dropped to an opening of 47.5 following Jones' brutal start for Jacksonville.
- Although the Jags have just two wins this year, they've covered in four straight contests.
- Edge rusher Za'Darius Smith will make his Lions debut and should bring pass-rushing juice to a defense that has greatly missed Aidan Hutchinson.
Jaguars vs Lions betting trend to know
Detroit is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Lions.
Jaguars vs Lions game info
| Location: | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Jaguars vs Lions latest injuries
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