Jets vs Bills Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 11: Offense Stuck in Mud

The Buffalo Bills have moved on from offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey and promoted Joe Brady to the position on a short week ahead of Week 11’s matchup with the New York Jets who enter as a 7-point road dog with a total of 40 on the NFL odds board. 

Brady is not going to drastically change this offense and a matchup with the No. 1 defense since Week 5 isn’t going to help with Buffalo’s scoring issues. There are also some weather concerns that have me looking to fade the Buffalo offense in this divisional matchup.  

I break down the Week 11 NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Jets at Bills on November 19. 

Jets vs Bills odds

Jets vs Bills predictions

The move to Joe Brady is not going to drastically change this offense nor is he going to fix a Buffalo Bills defense that has looked awful late in games and could be missing Leslie Frazier more than people think.

Ultimately, this is a Buffalo offense that is averaging seven points in the first half since Week 5, hasn’t scored more than 25 points since Week 4, and 21% of its drives since Week 5 have ended in a turnover. 

Josh Allen is completing just 39% of his passes with 15-plus air yards since Week 6 and although this is an offense that ranks in the Top 3 in EPA/play, yards per play, and completion percentage, sustaining drives without errors is seemingly impossible. 

The Buffalo quarterback leads the league in turnovers and Brady is only going to be there to help him between the ears this week with only five days to prepare for a divisional game. Brady’s track record looks good at the collegiate level when he was the passing game coordinator at LSU, but he also had Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson. He did nothing in Carolina under Matt Rhule except get canned mid-season, and his move to QB coach to the Bills hasn’t done much for Josh Allen to this point. 

Bettors should expect the same Bills team this Sunday and that includes a shoot-yourself-in-the-foot offense and a defense that can’t get off the field. It’s an offense that ranks 30th in pace of play and hasn’t produced with its scripted offense to begin the game. Now it faces the No.1 defense in EPA/play and success rate since Week 5 and a defense that held Josh Allen to 19 points and just two red-zone trips in Week 1. 

The New York Jets’ defense also knows that it has to play lights out to get a win thanks to an offense that has eight TDs in nine games. 

On a short week, with a struggling offense, a new OC, and facing the No.1 defense of late, the Bills getting to the 24-point mark Sunday is a tough task. Add in some 17-mph winds and a low chance of rain, this Under could take some money later in the week, too. 

My best bet: Buffalo team total Under 23.5 (+105 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jets vs Bills same-game parlay

Buffalo team total Under 23.5

Zach Wilson Under 0.5 passing TDs

Josh Allen Over 30.5 rushing yards

+1,000 at bet365

The market is starting to fall on this Buffalo team total as it should. This will still be the same slow, unable-to-pass-the-ball-downfield offense on Sunday vs. the No.1 defense in football that held Allen to 236 yards in Week 1 including three picks. Heavy winds and possible rain aren't going to help.

Zach Wilson is possibly one more bad half away from being benched for Tim Boyle and the QB has just one passing TD over his last five games.

Finally, Allen's Over rushing is giving me a sweet multiplier here as it is being graded negatively correlated to the team total Under. This is not a big number and if that weather is an issue, the QB could use his legs more. THE BLITZ is projecting 43.8 rushing yards for Allen.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Jets vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bills sat as 6.5-point favorites on the look-ahead and have bounced between -6.5 and -7 this week. The Dorsey firing has done very little in building confidence with the Bills who could be without WR Trent Sherfield (who exited in Week 10) and DB Micah Hyde who was inactive last week. 

The Jets had linebacker and defensive leader CJ Mosley hit the blue tent late last week but coach Robert Saleh told the media that he could have returned if needed. Missing Mosley could be enough to move this from an expensive -6.5 to -7. 

Outside of the injuries, the weather could play a factor on Sunday afternoon at Highmark Stadium in Buffalo. There are expected 17-mph winds that would hurt Zach Wilson more than Josh Allen but affect both offenses nonetheless. There is also a 20% chance of rain which means this could take some late Under money on the current 40-point total which was just 40.5 on the look-ahead without the potential weather priced in.  

The last meeting in Week 1 saw a 45-point closing total in a game Aaron Rodgers was starting. New York was +2.5 in that game. Wilson did start vs. the Bills last year in the Meadowlands in a New York 20-17 win with a closing total of 46 and the New York QB has two wins over three games vs. the Bills in his career but both of those wins have come in New Jersey. 

Saleh has stated that Wilson will be the starter so backup Tim Boyle will have to continue to wait in the shadows. It's hard to get much worse than this offense that just released RB Michael Carter and 

Allen continues to struggle to get the ball downfield and Wilson ranks dead last in EPA/play since Week 5. If the Jets’ defense can continue to make Allen go underneath — something he seems bored with and then ultimately turns it over with a bad deep pass — then bettors could see a ton of punting Sunday in Orchard Park. 

Field position will be key but potential 17-mph winds could make things difficult for both passers. I’m not expecting anything different philosophy-wise from the Bills under Brady and Buffalo limiting mistakes is easier said than down — especially against an elite defense. I like the full game Under better than betting on Wilson and the offense at +7. 

Jets vs Bills betting trend to know

The New York Jets have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 18 games (-13.15 Units / -68% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Bills.

Jets vs Bills game info

Jets vs Bills latest injuries

Jets vs Bills weather

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