Jets vs Dolphins Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 15: Miami's Defense Clamps Wilson & Co.

In somewhat of a role reversal, it’ll be the Miami Dolphins coming off an embarrassing loss hosting the New York Jets after a lopsided win.

This is a rematch from three weeks ago where Miami laid the smackdown up in New Jersey, destroying the Jets 34-13 and outgaining them by 236 yards.

NFL odds have the Dolphins favored by 8.5 points with the total sitting at 37.5. The teams will look a little bit different than they did in their matchup a few weeks ago, so let’s dive in and I’ll provide you with my free NFL picks for Jets vs. Dolphins on December 17.

Jets vs Dolphins odds

Jets vs Dolphins predictions

With the benefit of hindsight, I think it’s fair to say the Miami Dolphins’ humiliating loss to the Titans had all the makings of a classic letdown spot, especially for their defense.

They were coming off three games in which they hadn't allowed more than 15 points and were starting to gain recognition as one of the league’s top defenses in the second half of the season. Offensively, they were flying again after dropping 34 points against the Jets on Black Friday and 45 points in Washington the week after.

Combine the stellar play that earned them the top seed in the conference with lots of positive buzz from their in-season feature on HBO’s Hard Knocks and Tua’s entertaining appearance on the MNF ManningCast, and it’s fair to say that this team was feeling themselves a little bit too much.

Now, it’s back to reality against a division rival that’s coming off their best game of the season — a 30-6 win over the Texans where Zach Wilson threw for a season-high 301 yards.

Oddsmakers don’t appear to be reading too much into each team’s most recent performance though as the Dolphins are still a sizable favorite, but each team will look different from their matchup three weeks ago.

For starters, Wilson didn't start in that last matchup. Tim Boyle did and he was so bad during his time as a starter that he's no longer on the team. On the other side, Tyreek Hill was limited in the Titans game after suffering an ankle injury. He's day-to-day and his status for this game is currently undetermined. 

Combine that with the handful of injuries to the offensive line and there are a ton of unknowns for the Dolphins offense. As such, I can’t confidently recommend a spread bet on either side, so let’s narrow the matchup and my best bet down to Miami's defense against New York's offense.

I think it’s fair to call that 30-point performance against Houston an outlier — especially when you consider all 30 points were scored in the second half. Even with those 30 points, the Jets are averaging just 8.5 second-half points per game.

The bigger sample size shows that New York’s offense is one of the worst in the NFL, and they’re god-awful on the road.

In four of their five road games this season, they scored 13 points or fewer. On the road, they’re scoring a touchdown on a pathetic 10% of red zone trips and are converting on just 20% of third-down conversion attempts. Each is easily the worst in the NFL.

Before the final three minutes against the Titans, the Dolphins defense was rolling. They had only allowed 13 points up until that point of the game and had allowed just 49 points over the four previous games. They rank ninth in yards allowed per play on the season and can bounce back at home against an offensively challenged opponent. 

They had seven sacks in the Black Friday game where the Jets offense only scored seven points. With New York’s offense allowing the highest QB pressure percentage in the NFL and Miami generating the fourth most pressure, this could be a long day for Zach Wilson.

My best bet: Jets team total Under 13.5 (-108 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Jets vs Dolphins same-game parlay

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Jets vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis

The Dolphins are an 8.5-point favorite, which is fascinating considering they were favored by 9.5 in New Jersey against the Jets a few weeks ago.

They easily covered the number and won by 21 points, but the Dolphins are clearly beat up and Zach Wilson is probably a slight upgrade over Tim Boyle. 

That said, the Dolphins have had some great performances on their home field following losses this season. This includes beating the Giants by 15 and putting up 524 yards of offense, beating the Patriots by 14, and a 7-point win over the Raiders where they shut them out in the second half.

As for this total of 37.5, it’s easily the lowest total for a Dolphins game this season. The previous lowest was the Black Friday game where the number closed at 40. The teams combined for 47 points which was aided by two pick-sixes at the end of the second quarter. 

Jets vs Dolphins betting trend to know

The Jets have gone Under the second-half total in 15 of their last 18 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Dolphins.

Jets vs Dolphins game info

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