Jordan Love Odds and MNF Props: Love is Kind to Over Bettors

Primetime games have been infested with backup quarterbacks all season long, and that won’t change tonight in Week 14 with Tommy DeVito set to start once again for the New York Giants. It’s perfect because on the other side, the Green Bay Packers will be tossing out one of the most scrutinized backups in the NFL over the last few years in Jordan Love, who has finally gotten the training wheels taken off in 2023.

All of the agonizing and second-guessing in Title Town over the Aaron Rodgers succession plan seems to have been for nothing, with the state of Wisconsin finding out the Love era could continue the franchise’s string of special quarterback play. 

You can see how I’m betting on the Jordan Love odds as we dive into the MNF odds in my free NFL picks below.

For more coverage, check our Packers vs. Giants picks alongside our Packers vs. Giants prop picks!

Jordan Love MNF prop picks

• 250+ passing yards
• 250+ passing yards/Over 1.5 passing TDs /J. Reed Over 39.5 rec yards

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Jordan Love MNF prop pick

250+ passing yards (+185)

Few quarterbacks in the NFL had more eyes on them heading into the NFL season than Love. The former first-round pick had to replace the future Hall of Famer who replaced another Hall of Famer, that’s a lot of pressure in a football-crazed town like Green Bay.

There were bumps along the way, but Matt LaFleur’s belief in Love has paid off with the former first-round pick being arguably the most improved passer this season and building hope everywhere that he’s the green and gold’s next franchise quarterback.

With the 4-8 Giants coming to town, Love can continue to remind the nation that he’s got special arm talent and playing in a system that perfectly fits his skill set. While New York’s defense isn’t bottom of the barrel, it’s been lucky enough to play some less than stellar quarterbacks this year.

Wink Martindale’s unit is 20th in EPA per play and 15th in EPA per dropback, but has played the likes of Mac Jones, Aidan O’Connell, Zach Wilson, Josh Dobbs, and a banged-up Geno Smith this season. When dealing with a higher end quarterback like Dak Prescott in Week 10, he toasted the secondary to the tune of 404 passing yards and four scores.

It’s a secondary that’s susceptible, and a defense with a pass rush is completely reliant on just two players — Dexter Lawrence and Kayvon Thibodeaux. So while Love isn’t on the MVP-level of Prescott, he can still give this Giants defense all it can handle, even without Christian Watson suiting up.

The former Utah State star has been stacking impressive games after an iffy three-game stretch from Weeks 3 to 5. On the season, he’s averaging 238.8 passing yards per game and has thrown for at least 250 yards in five of 12 games.

However, he’s been at his best over his last three games with eight touchdown passes to zero interceptions while topping 250 yards in each outing. In his last four games, Love has thrown for at least 267 yards in each of them and is averaging 286.5 passing yards per game over that stretch.

Taking Love to go Over his 224.5 passing yards line (-110) is surely the safer move with him having gone Over that number in nine of 12 games, including in each of his last six, but he’s been too good lately for the Packers to not lean on him.

On the season, Love is 10th in EPA per play among quarterbacks, 16th in success rate, and 23rd in CPOE. Those numbers have been impacted by how ultra-aggressive he’s been since the jump — he’s third in air yards per attempt (9.0) — but he’s gotten much more consistent with ball placement in recent weeks as he gained experience.

Since Week 10, Love is fourth in EPA per play, seventh in success rate, seventh in CPOE, and still eighth in air yards. He’s found more of a rhythm while taking less risks and still hitting big plays when they’re there, and they should be there against the Giants.

New York is giving up 228.3 passing yards per game and has inexperience on the backend. First-round rookie cornerback Deonte Banks has been inconsistent giving up big plays against better receivers while Adoree Jackson is allowing a 103.9 QB rating when targeted. The Giants have four defensive backs who have given up over 340 yards in coverage this year.

That should incentivize LaFleur to go with Love’s hot hand, especially with Green Bay’s struggles running the football this season. His offense is ninth in EPA per play and eighth in EPA per dropback, but just 19th in EPA per rush.

Starting running back Aaron Jones is questionable for the game and both he and AJ Dillon are averaging under four yards per carry this season.

Prop: Jordan Love 250+ passing yards (+185 at bet365)

Jordan Love MNF same-game parlay

Jordan Love 250+ passing yards

Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing TDs

Jayden Reed Over 39.5 receiving yards

+450 at bet365

This impressive stretch of play from Love has him tied for fifth in the NFL with Patrick Mahomes for passing touchdowns. He’s thrown 22 in 12 games this season and is on pace for 31 this year.

He’s really been juicing up that number over his last four games with 10 touchdown passes and has thrown at least two in each of those games. On the season, he’s thrown at least two touchdown passes in seven of 12 games.

For Love to take advantage of this Giants secondary and add to his counting numbers, he’ll need his receivers to do some damage, especially with Watson out. Both Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed are nice options to go with for the Over on their receiving yards line.

Doubs line of 40.5 is intriguing, but he’ll likely be dealing with Banks on the outside more often than Reed, who can play the Z or in the slot. That should allow him to get matchups with Jackson, Cordale Flott, Xavier McKinney, or even rookie Tre Hawkins. Those four have combined to allow 1,350 yards in coverage this season.

Reed, a second-round rookie out of Michigan State, has also had the ball schemed to him out of the slot all season. He’s averaging 42.8 receiving yards per game and has had at least 40 in six of 12 games.

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