The New Orleans Saints welcome the Detroit Lions to the Big Easy on Sunday for a NFL Week 13 odds showdow. The Saints return home after losing back-to-back contests on the road while the 8-3 Lions will try to rebound from an upset loss on Thanksgiving.
NFL odds have the Lions installed as 4.5-point road favorites with the O/U at 46.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Lions vs. Saints on December 3.
Lions vs Saints odds
Lions vs Saints predictions
The Detroit Lions are 8-3 but they've looked vulnerable the last two weeks after needing a fourth-quarter comeback to edge the Bears before getting upset by the Packers last week. It's become apparent that Detroit's defense was overrated at the start of the season and has been struggling lately — especially against the pass.
That said, the New Orleans Saints won't be able to exploit that weakness because their wide receiver corps has been decimated by injuries. Michael Thomas is on the IR with a knee injury, Rashid Shaheed is looking doubtful for Sunday and Chris Olave needs to pass concussion protocol.
Even when healthy the Saints' offense was mediocre and with possibly all three of their starting wide receivers sidelined, they'll have a tough time keeping up with a highly efficient Lions attack.
The Saints are also banged up on defense with shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore placed on the IL last week and three other key starters (defensive lineman Cameron Jordan, linebacker Pete Werner, and safety Marcus Maye) listed as questionable. While they've posted strong numbers on that side of the ball they've faced plenty of weak attacks and Detroit has the best offense they've seen this year.
The Lions are eighth in the NFL in offensive EPA while ranking seventh in success rate. They have a strong offensive line and have been able to throw the ball with Jared Goff or run with their RB tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmir Gibbs.
Look for the Lions to bounce back from their loss last week and cover the spread against a Saints team in turmoil with head coach Dennis Allen on the hot seat.
My best bet: Lions -4 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Lions vs Saints same-game parlay
Lions -4.5
David Montgomery Over 62.5 rushing yards
Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 7.5 receptions
The Saints have been getting gashed on the ground lately surrendering 157.2 rushing yards per game and 5.04 yards per carry over their last five contests. They could be even worse if Jordan and Werner can't suit up and now they face a Detroit offense that ranks fourth in the league in rush EPA. Montgomery has rushed for more than 70 yards in three consecutive games since coming back from a rib injury.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been Detroit's best receiver and is fourth in the league in receptions with 82. He has snagged at least eight catches in five of his last six contests and should be able to take advantage of a Saints secondary that will really miss Lattimore.
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Lions vs Saints spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Lions installed as 3.5-point road favorites with the Over/Under at 44.5. Early money came in on the Lions and the Over, shifting the line to -4.5 and moving the total to 46.5.
The Saints are coming off a 24-15 defeat to the Falcons and lost 27-19 to the Vikings during the previous week. They are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games and are lucky that they are still in playoff contention due to playing in the miserable NFC South.
The Lions had become one of the league's ATS darlings but now that they have an impressive 8-3 record they're getting plenty of love from oddsmakers. That made them favorites of more than a touchdown over the last two weeks and they were lucky to escape with a win against the Bears before losing 29-22 to the Packers on Thanksgiving.
With a defense that is regressing and a finely-tuned offense, the Lions have easily cashed the Over in their last three weeks. That said, the Under is 14-5 in the Saints last 19 games thanks to their solid defense and an anemic offense.
Lions vs Saints betting trend to know
The Saints have been one of the worst teams against the spread in the league, and have gone just 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Lions vs. Saints.
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Lions vs Saints game info
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 3, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Saints +3.5, 44.5 O/U |
Lions vs Saints latest injuries
Lions vs Saints weather
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