NFL Moneyline Picks for Every Wild Card Game

Baker Mayfield might not get the recognition he deserves for leading the Buccaneers to a division title. Eric Rosales expects Tampa to prevail over the Commanders as one of his moneyline picks for NFL Wild Card Weekend.

Eric Rosales - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Eric Rosales • Betting Analyst
Jan 8, 2025 • 09:23 ET • 4 min read
Bucky Irving Baker Mayfield Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images.

The NFL regular season has come and gone, and business has picked up with what might be the best weekend in football: Wild Card weekend.

While the Kansas City Chiefs and the Detroit Lions sit this one out — the fruits of earning the top seed in each conference — plenty of heavy hitters are on tap with plenty of intriguing matchups.

Below we share the moneyline odds for each playoff game courtesy of DraftKings, as well as our favorite NFL picks.

Wild Card moneyline picks

Matchup Pick
Chargers Chargers vs Texans Texans Chargers (-162)
Steelers Steelers vs Ravens Ravens Ravens (-470)
Broncos Broncos vs Bills Bills Bills (-440)
Packers Packers vs Eagles Eagles Packers (+185)
Commanders Commanders vs Buccaneers Buccaneers Buccaneers (-175)
Vikings Vikings vs Rams Rams Vikings (-115)

Lines courtesy of DraftKings as of 1-8.

Expert Wild Card moneyline picks

Chargers vs. Texans: Chargers (-162)

In the power rankings of "teams you would prefer to face in the playoffs," the Houston Texans are second on my list.

Since its Week 14 bye, Houston has averaged 16 points across four games, and the Rams are the only team in the playoffs that scored less on the whole.

They’re also down receivers Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs, which wouldn’t be so much of a problem if CJ Stroud hadn’t hit the regress button on this season.

Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Chargers were the top-scoring defense in the NFL, allowing just 17.7 points per game, and their offense can get the points needed to prevail.

LA has won three straight heading into the playoffs and has scored at least 34 points in all three. The first division winner goes down early.

Steelers vs. Ravens: Ravens (-470)

There is no team that you should want to face more than the struggling Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh staggers into the postseason losers of four straight, one of them to these very Baltimore Ravens. The offense has gone into the tank, scoring 17 or less in the final four.

Russell Wilson’s game has gone on a milk carton and star wideout George Pickens has fallen off the face of the earth.

Returning from a hamstring injury to give juice to the offense as the only legit deep and mid-range threat, Pickens had four catches 50 yards across those games, including a 1-rec, 0-yard finale.

The Steelers defense might put together a solid outing — as they are wont to do against the Ravens — but Lamar Jackson is on another plane. He’s guiding B-More to 30.5 points per game this season.

He may still have to exorcise his postseason demons, but he'll cruise through this weekend.

Broncos vs. Bills: Bills (-440)

With a rookie QB leading his team to the playoffs for the first time since 2015, the Denver Broncos are the third and final team in the “teams you would prefer to face in the playoffs” power rankings.

This is actually not a slight on Bo Nix, who has been really good, helped along by a very sturdy Broncos defense that’s Top 3 in points allowed per game at 18.3.

It’s just that the Buffalo Bills are that good.

Josh Allen is the likely MVP, and led the Bills to 10 wins in 11 games to clinch the 2-seed, before sitting out the meaningless Week 18 loss to the Patriots.

The Bills were a perfect 8-0 at home this year, putting up 34.3 points per game. The book closes on Denver’s feel-good story in Orchard Park.

Packers vs. Eagles: Packers (+185)

There’s little doubt in my mind that both Jordan Love (elbow) and Jalen Hurts (concussion) will play.

On paper, the Philadelphia Eagles should roll at home.

But the Green Bay Packers can put together a big game and pull off the upset, and the Eagles always feel like they're a few bad plays from some dire straits, especially on offense.

The Packers defense isn’t elite, but they are one of seven teams to hold the opposition to less than 100 yards rushing per game. They’ll be tested to try and stop freshly minted 2K runner Saquon Barkley.

If Green Bay turns this into a passing game, Love can outduel Hurts.

It’s our first upset alert of the weekend.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers: Buccaneers (-175)

Such an intriguing matchup at Raymond James Stadium, where two outstanding QBs have carried their teams to the playoffs.

Jayden Daniels ripped off four straight wins to close his campaign and deliver the Washington Commanders a postseason berth. After 3,500+ yards passing and 25 TDs, along with 891 yards rushing and six scores, you forget the kid is in his rookie season.

Baker Mayfield, meanwhile, should get some MVP votes for holding down the Tampa Bay Buccaneers fort while his best receivers were injured and the offense was patchwork. He had a monster season, throwing for 4,500 yards and 41 TDs.

I’ll take the veteran pivot at home against the rookie. If you do have another bet in you other than the moneyline, it should be the Over.


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Vikings vs. Rams: Vikings (-115)

If there’s ever been a stay-away game for me, it has to be the closing game of Wild Card weekend.

The Minnesota Vikings are a way overqualified fifth seed at 14-3, yet you could convince me they could hang 40 and crush the Los Angeles Rams or score 10 in a blowout defeat.

Meanwhile, the Rams are the only team to beat Buffalo down the home stretch (not including Week 18), hanging 44 on them, but they scored 44 total over the next three games as they clinched the NFC West. You just don’t know what’s in store from week to week.

Matt Stafford is a Super Bowl-winning QB, but Sam Darnold has vaulted himself into excellent NFL starter status with a dream season.

So much of what L.A. does is set up by the run, but Minnesota boasts the second-best run defense in the league, allowing 93.4 yards per game.

The Vikings are way better than anyone wants to give them credit for, but it’s with guarded confidence that I take them to advance.

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Eric Rosales - Covers
Betting Analyst

Eric has been involved in sports media in many different capacities since graduating from journalism school in 1999, back when getting your own column in a newspaper was still considered a thing. He doubled down and graduated from broadcast journalism school five years later, which led to a move to Toronto and a career with The Sports Network (TSN). From behind-the-scenes production work, he moved into the digital realm, where he had his own hoops column (At the Buzzer), while regularly live streaming and chatting with fans during broadcasts as the character known as LeBlog James. He was also a key contributor to TSN and CTV’s Olympic programming during the 2012 London Games.

Eric eventually found his way into the sports betting field in 2016 and has been a mainstay ever since. He was tagged on Twitter as a Top 10 NBA sharp during the 2021 season and has been interviewed about basketball and his handicapping process on shows from Vancouver to India. Eric is now a jack-of-all-sports at Covers, where his predictions span the alphabet soup: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, F1, WNBA, Euro, and Copa.

When making picks, he focuses on finding value first and foremost, and ensuring readers have all the information they need to make an informed choice.

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