The Dallas Cowboys backed into a home playoff game by snatching the NFC East title from the fading Eagles in the final three weeks of the season — a huge lift for a team that plays its best football in front of the Dallas faithful.
AT&T Stadium welcomes the Green Bay Packers and a long history between these storied franchises for Sunday’s NFC Wild Card Weekend game, with the NFL odds dealing Dallas as a 7.5-point favorite for this 4:30 p.m. ET kickoff.
I size up the spread and Over/Under total for this Wild Card contest and give my best NFL picks and predictions for Packers vs. Cowboys on Sunday, January 14.
For more angles on this intriguing game, be sure to check out our Packers vs Cowboys props and our Dak Prescott odds and props spotlight!
Packers vs Cowboys odds
Packers vs Cowboys predictions
With an Over/Under this tall and all eyes on the quarterbacks for this Wild Card clash, it’s easy to overlook the ground game — specifically from the Dallas Cowboys.
Stopping Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will be the focus of the Green Bay Packers’ defensive plans, but running back Tony Pollard will be a massive thorn in the Cheeseheads' side and, given Sunday's sizable spread, the final nail in Green Bay’s coffin.
Pollard has had an up-and-down season in his first year as Dallas' RB1, starting slow but picking up steam around Thanksgiving. His production dipped again toward the end of December, but he closed the slate with a 70-yard, 17-carry day versus Washington in Week 18.
It was Pollard’s fourth-highest rushing output on the season (and put him over 1,000 yards) in a game in which he was lightly used in the fourth quarter with the Cowboys protecting their starters. It also served as a positive for both him and the offensive line heading into the tournament.
"In this league, it's something you have to do in the playoffs," Pollard told reporters about the importance of running the ball. "When it's December football and it's cold, and in January, you've gotta be able to pound the ball and be able to throw the ball (as well). Being able to show it was big."
Pollard and the O-line can keep that momentum moving on the turf versus the Packers. Green Bay finished the campaign ranked 22nd in EPA allowed per handoff and allowed 4.4 yards per carry (23rd) to rival rushers, giving up the 11th most rushing yards to RBs.
Green Bay’s defense hasn’t been challenged much in the home stretch of the season. It’s faced plenty of pop-gun passing attacks, which has allowed the Packers to focus on canning the run and forcing foes to lean into their shaky QBs.
However, in games against quality air attacks, like Kansas City and Detroit, rival running backs have enjoyed plenty of space with the Packers protecting against the pass. The Chiefs finished with 148 yards rushing on 25 carries and the Lions rumbled for 140 on 31 attempts.
In fact, the last time Green Bay met Dallas, Pollard blistered the Packers’ run stop. He went for 115 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown in an overtime loss at Lambeau Field in November 2022 — a loss that sticks with Cowboys head coach and former Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy.
Pollard’s rushing yard prop for Sunday sits at 59.5 yards O/U at FanDuel. Other operators are higher on that total, including some notable sharp books jumping from 60.5 to 61.5 yards with the Over juiced to -133.
This prop total seems short considering the trajectory of Dallas’ ground attack, the Packers’ poor rushing defense, but also the game script for this Wild Card contest. With the Cowboys set as 7.5-point chalk, there’s a good chance they’re playing with the lead in the second half and leaning on Pollard and the run to grind out gains and kill clock down the stretch Sunday.
Player projections for the Wild Card Weekend are calling for a big effort from Pollard, with most models flirting with 70 yards. My forecast sits just shy of 65 rushing yards with the ceiling from some projections as high as 74 yards on Sunday.
My best bet: Tony Pollard Over 59.5 rushing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Packers vs Cowboys same-game parlay
Tony Pollard Over 59.5 rushing yards
Dak Prescott Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
CeeDee Lamb anytime touchdown
Pollard picks up where he left off last week and rushes for 60-plus against a suspect Packers defense.
Prescott plays his best football in Jerry’s World and connects for two or more touchdowns on Sunday.
CeeDee has been a beast for the Cowboys passing game. He’s scored nine TDs in his last nine games and projections call for another score in the Wild Card Round.
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Packers vs Cowboys spread and Over/Under analysis
With the Cowboys claiming the NFC East crown, thanks largely to the Philadelphia Eagles’ belly flop to end the schedule, Dallas earned a home date in the Wild Card Round.
The Packers pushed themselves into the postseason with a win over Chicago in Week 18 and closed the regular season on a three-game winning streak.
Oddsmakers opened Dallas as a 7.5-point home chalk and that spread has stayed steady for the most part, with early dips to -7 at some sportsbooks. That touchdown spread lasted mere minutes before buyback on the Cowboys tacked the half-point hook back on.
According to Covers Consensus, 55% of early picks are laying the points with “America’s Team” on Sunday afternoon. Dallas is one of the better home teams in the NFL, boasting a +12.9 margin of victory as hosts, which led to a 6-2 ATS mark inside Jerry’s World.
The most notable uptick coming on their own field is offensive production. The Cowboys averaged a league-high 0.537 points per play at home (compared to just 0.372 on the road) and amassed almost 426 yards per home outing — most in the NFL.
Prescott thrives on the clean indoor track in Arlington, where he completes better than 73% of his passes for an average of 8.6 yards per attempt and has connected for 22 of his total 36 touchdown throws. Prescott’s 120.0 QB rating inside AT&T Stadium is the highest home QBR in the land.
That offensive pop will be the toughest test Green Bay’s defense has faced all season. The Packers stop unit is the sore spot, wrapping up the regular season ranked 23rd in EPA allowed per play.
They also allowed a success rate per dropback of 48% to rival passing games (28th) and have issues giving explosive plays of 25-plus yards. Green Bay relies heavily on the pass rush to help bail out the secondary and while the Cheeseheads boast the sixth-highest pressure rate, they run into a Cowboys offensive line that ranks No. 1 pass block win rate at ESPN. Prescott has felt pressure on only 17% of his dropbacks this year.
Given this tough test for the defense, Green Bay is putting a lot of weight into QB Jordan Love in the first postseason start of his career. First-timers haven’t fared well under the bright lights of the playoffs, with their teams going 27-50 SU and 30-46-1 ATS.
However, Love finished the regular season playing the best football of his career. After a bumpy start to his first year as the Packers’ QB1, Love posted a QB rating of 111.6 over the final six games of the schedule, including 13 touchdowns to just one interception.
Green Bay has been one of the better offensive units since Week 11, ranking No. 2 in EPA per play in that span, with Love’s passing prowess leading the way at No. 1 in EPA per dropback in those eight contests.
The Cheeseheads will see if those numbers hold water against a Cowboys defense that thrives on chaos. Dallas finished No. 5 in EPA allowed per dropback, checking opposing QBs to a completion rate of only 60.51% (fourth lowest) and snatching 17 interceptions — five of which went back for a defensive score.
Understandably, this is one of the taller Over/Under totals on the board this Wild Card Weekend. Books opened with 49 points and early play has been on the Over, driving his total as high as 51 points as of Wednesday. Covers Consensus shows 59% of picks playing the Over.
Dallas finished the season 8-8-1 Over/Under, but the bulk of those Over results came at home with the Cowboys posting a 5-3 O/U count as hosts. As for the Packers, they wrapped the year 10-7 O/U, including a 7-2 O/U mark away from Lambeau Field. They also went 3-1 O/U indoors.
Packers vs Cowboys betting trend to know
The Cowboys are 7-1 Over/Under vs. their team total at home this season and have gone 25-9 O/U vs. the team total at home since 2020. Dallas’ TT for Sunday is at 29.5 points O/U. Find more NFL betting trends for Packers vs. Cowboys.
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Packers vs Cowboys game info
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, January 14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Cowboys -7.5, 48.5 O/U |
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