The postseason push in the NFC is under the lights on Sunday Night Football in Week 15.
The Green Bay Packers are fighting for a Wild Card ticket to the tournament and visit the Seattle Seahawks, who are clinging to a slim lead in the NFC West. The short spread indicates a playoff-like atmosphere in prime time.
I size up the opening NFL odds and adjustments, giving my best NFL leans and Packers vs. Seahawks predictions for Sunday, December 15.
Packers vs Seahawks predictions
Early spread lean
Seattle +2.5 (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
This is one of the toughest games to handicap on the NFL Week 15 board.
I’m not gushing over the Seattle Seahawks' four-game winning streak, but they're playing solid two-way football and have settled into Mike Macdonald’s defense at the perfect time.
As for the Green Bay Packers, they couldn’t take advantage of a decimated Detroit defense last Thursday and found themselves in a shootout with the Lions.
Sure, the Cheeseheads are 7-2 SU since Week 5 — with those two losses coming courtesy of the Lions — but they’ve also taken advantage of some softer situational spots to build that record.
Green Bay defeated the warm-weather Dolphins in the Wisconsin winter on Thanksgiving Thursday, blasted a broken 49ers roster with a backup QB, and barely escaped with a win over a dysfunctional Bears team in Week 11.
The Seahawks expect to have RB Kenneth Walker back for this important prime-time game, complementing a downfield attack from Geno Smith & Co. Green Bay runs a higher rate of zone coverage — which Smith thrives against — and has allowed a total of almost 650 yards through the air and five passing touchdowns the past two games.
Seattle is a live underdog at home, especially if this spread hits a field goal. The current number is Seahawks as a cheap +2.5 pup, indicating a potential move to three if Green Bay money shows.
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Early Over/Under lean
Under 47 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
I may not put as much stock in Seattle’s four-game winning streak as some, but I can’t deny this defense is coming together under new head coach Mike Macdonald.
Macdonald was the architect of Baltimore’s record-setting stop unit last season and while his schemes have taken time to root in Seattle, the Seahawks are seeing those benefits at the best time.
Seattle has gone from 21st in EPA per play in the opening 10 weeks to No. 2 in that advanced metric during this four-game run. The Seahawks have been notably strong in key areas like third-down defense and red zone stops.
The Packers stop unit has also held its own in recent weeks. While last Thursday’s shootout in Detroit saw a lot of points and yards from the Lions, the Cheeseheads still rate out No. 11 in EPA allowed per play since Week 11.
Offensively, both teams can run the ball and control possession. The Packers have been ground-centric in the second half of the schedule and run at one of the highest rates while a healthy Walker gives Seattle a viable option in the run game. Even without Walker in Week 14, Seattle ran 31 times for 176 yards against Arizona.
This total sits right on the key number of 47 points, up from the look-ahead line of 46.5 O/U. I do like the Under but I would wait and see if the market moves this number up half a point before buying back the Under at 47.5.
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Packers vs Seahawks live odds
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