Sunday Night Football in Week 15 features a pivotal NFC clash between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field.
My NFL picks are betting on big games from Packers running back Josh Jacobs and Seattle's Zach Charbonnet. Here are my best free SNF props for December 15, and make sure to check out Josh Inglis' full Packers vs. Seahawks predictions!
Packers vs Seahawks SNF props
Jacobs o74.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
Charbonnet o29.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)- Smith longest pass completion u35.5 yards (-120 at bet365)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Packers vs Seahawks SNF props
Prop bet #1: Josh Jacobs Over 74.5 rushing yards
One of the biggest storylines in the 2024 NFL season has been the resurgence of star running backs who were dumped by their previous teams and have spearheaded new attacks. Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry have gotten much of that attention, but don't forget about Green Bay Packers RB Josh Jacobs.
The two-time Pro Bowler ranks fourth in the league with 1,053 rushing yards on 4.4 yards per rush attempt. Although Jacobs struggled against a stout Detroit run defense last week, he has still reached 75+ yards on the ground in five of his last seven games.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has been vulnerable on the ground, ranking 22nd in defensive rush EPA. They are 26th in rushing yards per game allowed to running backs (109.5) and 28th in yards per carry (4.9) against the position. This is a five-star play according to our Covers Prop Projections, with the predictive model expecting 93.9 yards from Jacobs.
Prop bet #2: Zach Charbonnet Over 29.5 receiving yards
With starting running back Kenneth Walker III sidelined by a calf injury last week, Zach Charbonnet went off. The UCLA product carried the ball 22 times for 134 yards while adding another 59 receiving yards on seven catches in a 30-18 win against the Cardinals.
Charbonnet might not get as many carries this week since a positive game script is less likely, but he should continue to see plenty of work in the passing game. The Seahawks love to throw the ball to their running backs, with Charbonnet racking up 36 catches for 263 yards, while Walker has hauled in 38 for 271.
With Walker likely sidelined, Charbonnet will receive the bulk of snaps on passing downs against a Packers defense that allows 43.5 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs — the fourth-highest number in the league.
Prop bet #3: Geno Smith longest pass completion Under 35.5 yards
One of the most interesting stats in this matchup is that while the Packers are a respectable 11th in defensive dropback EPA, they sit dead last in defensive dropback success rate. That indicates that while the Packers give up consistent yardage through the air, they don't allow many big plays. Since their season opener, the Packers haven't allowed a single reception of more than 31 yards.
Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith hasn't been throwing deep as much as he was last season, with his average intended air yards (7.2) ranking 29th out of 41 qualifying QBs. Entering Week 15, Smith has completed a pass longer than 35 yards just three times in his last 10 games.
New Users
Choose your welcome bonus at bet365
Get in on the SNF action at bet365, which is offering new users a choice of two incredible offers:
- Up to $1,000 in bonus bets back (if your first bet doesn't win)
- Bet $5, get $150 in bonus bets instantly
Sign up now to pick your offer at bet365, or learn more with our comprehensive bet365 review.
Eligible U.S. locations only.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
