Week 14's edition of Sunday Night Football has the Los Angeles Chargers vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in a big divisional clash.
My priority in this article is Patrick Mahomes odds, which is showing value in the interceptions market.
Here are my NFL picks surrounding the Chiefs' QB on December 8.
Patrick Mahomes SNF player prop picks
- Best bet
Over 0.5 INT
(-115 at bet365) - SGP Pick
Mahomes Over 0.5 INT
Mahomes 1+ passing TD
Chiefs Over 117.5 rushing yards
(+300 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Patrick Mahomes SNF prop pick
My best bet
Over 0.5 interceptions (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
First things first, let's talk about the Los Angeles Chargers’ defense.
The Chargers currently rank sixth in terms of defensive DVOA and have been causing opposing quarterbacks problems all season. They’re amongst the best teams in terms of passing yardage allowed, too, with 206.4 yards allowed through the air each week.
One area in which Los Angeles has excelled is takeaways. The Chargers have already racked up 13 picks this season, with just three teams currently having more.
They’re fresh off a game in which they tormented Kirk Cousins, holding him to 245 yards and no passing touchdowns, managing to pick him off on four separate occasions.
That’s a concern for Patrick Mahomes, who's struggled with picks this year. He opened the season by throwing an interception in seven straight and has only had four games in which he hasn’t thrown one.
When these teams met in Week 4, we saw Mahomes get intercepted as the Chargers held him to 245 yards and one passing touchdown. With L.A. really ascending, this could get ugly for the Chiefs' superstar.
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Patrick Mahomes SNF same-game parlay
Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 interceptions
Patrick Mahomes 1+ passing touchdowns
Chiefs Over 117.5 rushing yards
Although this has been far from a vintage season for Mahomes, he’s only had two games without a passing TD. He’s had a passing touchdown in six straight games, with 13 TDs in total during that stretch.
The Chargers are averaging 119.4 rushing yards per game. With the return of Isiah Pacheco, we’ve seen the backfield carries split 50/50 with Kareem Hunt. Those two will cause havoc on Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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