Patriots vs Bills Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 17: Allen Goes End Zone Hunting

The Buffalo Bills have a clear path to No. 2 spot in the AFC, but their market confidence is high ahead of their Week 17 home meeting with the New England Patriots who beat them back in Week 7. The Bills enter this divisional matchup on a three-game winning streak and as 12-point favorites.

With playoffs on the horizon and Josh Allen finding the end zone with ease of late, should bettors continue to bet on the quarterback’s legs today for solid plus money?

I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for the Patriots vs. Bills on December 31. 

Patriots vs Bills odds

Patriots vs Bills predictions

Josh Allen has found the end zone with his legs in 11 of his 15 games on the season, including six over his last four games. With everything on the line this week and the Buffalo Bills sitting with an implied team total of roughly 26 points, getting his anytime TD at +150 this week is my favorite bet for this AFC East game. 

Allen closed at +110 for a TD last week vs. the Chargers on the road so getting it this week at +150 is great expected value — even with the defensive rating bump for the New England Patriots. 

Josh Allen takes it himself for the lead!#BUFvsLAC on Peacock
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/eeNRIfK0VS pic.twitter.com/dXvxA4lNrq

— NFL (@NFL) December 24, 2023

Since Dawson Knox has returned, the Bills are running the ball more and running out of two-TE sets at a hefty rate. Last week was a bit of an exception with Buffalo using 11 personnel at 63% compared to 35% in Week 15 and 47% the week before that. The heavier sets Buffalo runs out of, the better it is for Allen’s TD probability as it decreases the pass rate and therefore his passing TDs.

In the red zone, Allen has 12 carries over his last four games and has taken four total carries inside the 5-yard line over his last two games. His backfield is averaging 4.2 RZ carries per game, giving the quarterback 58% of the team’s red-zone carries since Week 12. 

This is something bettors saw last year when Allen saw his rushing rate increase later in the season to save his body from injury earlier in the season. Last season in Weeks 1 through 11, Allen averaged 7.1 carries per game and hit the double-digit carry mark three times. In Weeks 12 through 18, the QB averaged 8.83 carries per game and hit 10 or more carries in 50% of those six games.

With his recent run of finding pay dirt plus some great odds, I’ll be standing up when Buffalo gets in the red zone Sunday and expecting No. 7 to get more than half of the team carries near the goal line. 

My best bet: Josh Allen anytime TD (+150 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Patriots vs Bills same-game parlay

Allen Over 28.5 rushing yards

NE +14.5

Douglas Over 46.5 receiving yards

+550 at bet365

Allen's TD has moved significantly but the later the season goes and more is on the line, the more the QB will use his legs. He averaged 1.7 more carries per game last season over the final six games of the year vs. the beginning of the season and this number is a seven-week low. I'm hitting the alt lines to take the Pats at +14.5. Buffalo is not the best blowout team as this is not an offense that runs up the score. Finally, the game script is going to keep Bailey Zappe passing and Demario Douglas led the Pats in air yards last week in an eight-target game. Since his Week 7 game vs. the Bills, the rookie wideout is averaging 53.4 yards per game and has gone over this number in five of those seven matches. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Patriots vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bills were -13.5 on the look-ahead, reopened at -12.5, and have seen some money against them that has moved the line down to -12 after the Bills closed at -12.5 in LA last week. 

This spread looks good on the Buffalo side as recency bias has bettors liking the Patriots a bit more this week after the win in Denver and the Bills did not look like a 12.5-point favorite indoors vs. the Chargers in prime time. 

If New England can’t get Rhamondre Stevenson back this week as well as Hunter Henry, this could move toward the look-ahead line. Stevenson did not practice at all last week while Henry got in one limited session on Friday before being ruled out. 

Bailey Zappe had one of his best games as a pro vs. the Broncos in Denver on Sunday night. He finished with the best CPOE in Week 16 among all QBs with a 75.8% completion percentage but also threw more than 20% of his passes into tight windows (one yard or less of the defender). That is not something he's excelled at over his time in the league as he has a 63.5% completion rate with a CPOE of zero on the season. 

He'll face a Buffalo secondary that held Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to 134 passing yards and no TDs two weeks ago at Highmark Stadium, and that was without safety Micah Hyde who could return this week after logging limiting practices last week before being ruled out. 

I'm not about to back this New England offense. Zappe lost a fumble on the opening drive and went 3-for-13 on third downs. The Pats have a team total of 13.5 and although they still have a great defense that is tough to run against, the New England offense could be creating some short fields for the home side that could cover this game with just 24 points. 

Buffalo and Josh Allen faced a team with nothing to lose last week so they shouldn't be surprised this week as a giant favorite.   

“It’s tough because when you’re playing a team with nothing to lose, that’s a dangerous team. We gutted it out and we found a way,” Josh Allen was quoted following the Bills’ win last Saturday. 

I certainly lean on the Bills at -12 mostly with how bearish I am on the New England offense. The Pats have hit their team total Over just seven times over their last 20 games.

If Buffalo is in control of this game, expect it to be a slow-paced one. It's one of the slower teams in football but Over money has moved this total from 40 to 41. There are 11-mph winds expected and some possible rain/snow which sounds like typical Buffalo weather in late December. Combined these two teams are 11-19 O/U. 

The Patriots also have one of the worst kicking games in football and missed from 47 yards last week plus an extra point. Chad Ryland is making just 65% of his field goals this year. I like the Bills at -12 and -12.5 and lean on the Under at 41. 

Patriots vs Bills betting trend to know

The New England Patriots have only hit the team total Over in seven of their last 20 games (-8.75 Units / -37% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Bills.

Patriots vs Bills game info

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