Aaron Rodgers lasted only four snaps the last time he took to the turf at MetLife Stadium.
The New York Jets need a lot more than that from the veteran quarterback and his mended Achilles in Week 3 when they host the rival New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football.
Rodgers and New York are sizable favorites in the home opener despite this being the third game in 10 days, with both teams ravaged by injuries during this short week.
My Patriots vs. Jets predictions break down the spread and Over/Under for Thursday Night Football as I dish out my best NFL picks for September 19.
Patriots vs Jets TNF prediction
My best bet
Hunter Henry Over 3.5 Receptions (+102 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The list of capable skill players on the New England Patriots is about as long as the sleeves on former coach Bill Belichick’s hoodie. Among those rare highlights is tight end Hunter Henry.
The eight-year veteran may not be finding his way to many fantasy football rosters, but he is coming off a very busy day in Week 2’s overtime loss to Seattle.
Henry was targeted 12 times for eight catches, amassing 109 yards. This is a notable jump from his quiet Week 1 numbers, which saw the burly 6-foot-5 TE targeted three times for two grabs and 18 yards.
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett isn’t much for throwing the ball past the sticks, entering Thursday with the fourth-lowest air yards per attempt. However, given injuries to every single starter on the offensive line, the Pats’ ground game could screech to a halt and Brissett could find himself in long down-and-distance situations.
Those pass-prompting possessions and the fact the New England +6.5 game script has the Patriots playing from behind — again promoting passing — have Brissett dropping back more than he’d like.
And who’s he going to target when the New York Jets pass pressure closes in?
Against the Seahawks, Henry was Brissett’s safety blanket more than once, hitting the tight end while rolling out of the pocket for three catches. New England also countered Seattle’s aggression on man coverage with a short screen pass to the TE, which Henry carried for a big gain.
Henry’s player projections range from 3.5 catches to more than four receptions in Week 3, and I believe the ceiling could be even higher considering the injuries on the Jets' defense.
New York could be missing starters at all three levels, including linebacker C.J. Mosley. He’s the Jets’ top cover LB and would draw the Hunter assignment, but he’s missed practice with a toe injury.
Patriots vs Jets TNF same-game parlay
Hunter Henry 4+ receptions
Breece Hall anytime touchdown
Jets moneyline
Henry could be the best receiving option for the Patriots, especially when Brissett is under pressure.
Breece Hall has two touchdowns this season and can find paydirt on the ground and through the air.
Mid-week games give mixed results, which is why I'm avoiding the -6.5, but the Jets should be able to take advantage of a shorthanded New England team.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Patriots vs Jets odds
Patriots vs Jets live odds
Patriots vs Jets opening odds
- Spread: New England +7.5 | New York -7.5
- Moneyline: New England +285 | New York -375
- Over/Under: Over 42 | Under 42
Odds courtesy of FanDuel
Patriots vs Jets spread and Over/Under analysis
• The look-ahead markets in the summer had New York listed as a 7.5-point home favorite in Week 3. However, with the Patriots an overtime away from being 2-0 and the Jets offense starting slow, this official opener was New York -6.5.
• The Over/Under total is among the lowest on the Week 3 board. Look-ahead lines had the number at 42 points this offseason, but the official Week 3 O/U opened as high as 39 and has since tumbled to 38.5 points.
• Injuries are up and down the depth chart for both teams, and no place is more banged up than New England’s offensive line. Cluster injuries can have a big impact on the outcome, and all five starters for the Pats’ protection currently carry a questionable tag for Thursday.
Patriots vs Jets betting trend to know
The Jets haven’t been this big a divisional favorite since 2018, and the franchise is 6-3 SU but 3-6 ATS laying -6 or higher versus an AFC East rival since 2000. Find more NFL betting trends for Patriots vs. Jets.
Patriots vs Jets game info
| Location: | MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-19, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
Patriots vs Jets latest injuries
Patriots vs Jets weather
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