NFL Week 12 Picks and Predictions: Rams Cover is In the Cards

Thanksgiving Week is very much a turning point in the NFL season.

Teams not on pace to make the playoffs tend to lose their way post-Turkey Day, be it actual tanking for draft positioning, coaches and front offices kicking the tires on younger players, or guys just giving up on a losing year.

Many of those teams mailing it in for the final weeks of the schedule are the ones getting the points, which can make betting NFL underdogs – which I do exclusively in this column – a touch tricky.

Since 2020, underdogs have covered the NFL odds at a 51% clip from Week 12 onward, a dip from the 54% success rate against the spread for dogs from Week 1 to Week 11 in that same span.

Give those late-season pups a cushion of six points or more – which is often those clubs packing it in – and that ATS clip sinks to 47%.

Pad those lines with more than a touchdown (+7.5 or higher) and the biggest underdogs on the board come through less than 45% of the time in the final seven weeks of the past three seasons.

It’s something to keep in mind as you scour the Week 12 odds and beyond.

Here’s hoping my favorite underdog NFL picks and predictions for Week 12 are still barking by Thanksgiving.

Last week: 2-0-1 ATS

Season: 18-13-2 ATS

NFL Week 12 picks and predictions

• Commanders +12.5
• Buccaneers +2.5
• Rams +1.5

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Washington Commanders (+12.5) at Dallas Cowboys pick

Bookmakers are wearing their Thanksgiving “stretchy” pants when it comes to this expanding point spread in Dallas.

The Dallas Cowboys have swelled from -10.5 to as big as -12.5 hosting the Washington Commanders for their annual home stand on the holiday Thursday.

Some of that movement has to do with the popularity of “America’s Team”, especially on a day whenever Joe Blow is home watching and wagering on this game. Covers Consensus currently shows 64% of picks on the Cowboys.

Some of it has to do with the way Dallas has absolutely shit-stomped bad teams this season, blowing big spreads out of the water against bottom-tier teams. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS as faves of a touchdown or more in 2023.

And some of this adjustment – much of this adjustment – has to do with Washington faceplanting against the Giants last week, losing 31-19 as a closing 7.5-point home favorite. That pushed the look-ahead line from lows of +8.5 to its current high of +12.5.

It was a loss that doesn’t exactly have you running to bet the Commanders in Week 12, but I believe it’s being blown out of proportion.

Washington made improvements on offense in the past month, with QB Sam Howell and this passing game picking up the pace and putting up points. The Commies have jumped from 23rd in EPA per play in the first seven weeks to 13th in that advanced stat in the past four outings.

Washington was able to crack a tough divisional defense from the Eagles in both matchups with Philadelphia this season, posting 31 points in those close losses, and Dallas defense, while dangerous, is susceptible to home run plays.

Add in the fact that this is a massive divisional underdog on a short week, and I’m grabbing the points with Washington.

Oh, and Dallas is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 Thanksgiving Day games. That includes a greasy backdoor cover from the G-Men last year, scoring a last-second TD to lose 28-20 and squeeze inside the +10.5-point spread.

Let’s make this a Thanksgiving tradition.

PICK: Washington Commanders +12.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts pick

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have come back to earth after their stunning 3-1 start to the season, but they’ve continued to play competitive football throughout.

Tampa Bay owns an average margin of -0.8 on the season – pretty good for a 4-6 SU record - and has covered four straight games heading into this Week 12 trip to Indianapolis.

The offense has made the biggest improvements in recent weeks. The Buccaneers jumped from 26th in points per play through the first eight weeks to 12th in that measurement in the past three outings.

That uptick shows in the Bucs’ advanced metrics as well, ranking No. 9 in EPA per play since Week 9 after sitting 18th in the first eight weeks of action. Tampa Bay has a great shot to keep those positive gains coming against a Colts defense that isn’t fooling me.

The Indianapolis Colts were able to wrangle the wet noodle arms of the Patriots and Panthers before hitting the bye in Week 11 but gushed gains and points in the previous three contests. The Colts allowed 114 total points against Cleveland, New Orleans, and Jacksonville.

The Bucs' defense hasn’t been much better, but at least they have an identity. Tampa Bay slams the door on rival running backs and will force Indy to beat them through the air. Injuries to the secondary are concerning, but there’s a shot Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean make it back for Sunday.

In a battle of quarterbacks who look more like villains from an 80’s teen flick than pro passers, I’m trusting Baker Mayfield to ball out over Gardner Minshew.

Never thought I’d say that.

PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 (-110 at bet365)

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) at Arizona Cardinals pick

The Los Angeles Rams scored a 26-9 win over the Arizona Cardinals as a 7.5-point closing home chalk back in Week 6, with the Cardinals outgained by only 37 total yards of offense.

The big difference was L.A. shutting the door inside its own 20-yard line and leaving Arizona to go 0 for 3 in the red zone, settling for three field goals.

This time around, the Cards have Kyler Murray back at QB and James Conner at running back, which has Arizona as a short home favorite. However, that combo couldn’t get anything going against the Texans in Week 11 – even with Houston coughing the ball up three times.

Los Angeles returns RB Kyren Williams, who’s been out since that last meeting with Arizona, in which he rushed for 158 yards and a touchdown. That gives L.A. a nice boost on the ground against an Arizona defense ranked 26th in success rate allowed per run and 28th in run-stop win rate.

As for defending the pass, the Cardinals don’t discriminate when it comes to making rival QBs look good. They’ve watched rookies, seasoned veterans, and even Deshaun Watson play like Peyton “F-ing” Manning in the past weeks, with opponents boasting an average passer rating of 99.2 on the year.

Matt Stafford is still a capable QB, ranked Top 10 by PFF, and he could have Cooper Kupp on the field, with the potential to play through an ankle injury.

Either way, L.A.’s balanced attack should have no trouble taking apart a Cardinals defense that’s still bad when it’s healthy. And it’s not healthy in Week 12.

PICK: Los Angeles Rams +1.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

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