In a virtual elimination game from the AFC playoffs, the Las Vegas Raiders take on the Indianapolis Colts today. The Colts are currently the No. 7 seed in the AFC playoff picture but are in a four-way tie and only one game ahead of these Raiders and the Denver Broncos.
NFL odds have tabbed the Colts as 3.5-point home favorites with a total of 43.5 points. Let’s dig into this playoff-style matchup, and I’ll provide my free NFL picks for the Raiders vs. Colts on Sunday, December 31.
Raiders vs Colts odds
Raiders vs Colts predictions
The Raiders have played with rejuvenated life since Antonio Pierce took over the coaching job and have won two consecutive games, including an impressive road win to spoil Christmas for the Kansas City Chiefs. They’re now back in the wildcard hunt in the AFC with a win on Sunday.
Meanwhile, the Colts have also been hot, winning four of five before losing last week at Atlanta in ugly fashion. They find themselves tied for the AFC South lead with both the Jaguars and Texans, but need help in tiebreakers. They’re also tied with the Steelers and Bengals for the final wild-card spot.
Michael Pittman showed how important he is to this offense when it managed only 262 total yards of offense without him last week. The good news is that he appears to be back to practice and has shown some signs that he could be available this week.
On the other end, Josh Jacobs and Michael Mayer are still looking like they won't be available this week for the Raiders offense. An offense that has strangely busted out for 83 points over the last two weeks, despite ranking 25th in points scored and 29th in yards gained. Prior to those two games, the Raiders scored 46 total points in their previous four games combined.
The Colts defense has not been great overall but is very solid in the passing game. They only allow 220.7 passing yards per game (14th) and given up 17 passing touchdowns on the season, which ranks third in the NFL. Since the bye week, the Colts allowed 20 points to the Bucs and 13 points to the Steelers in their two home games, compared to 28 to the Titans, 34 to the Bengals, and 29 to the Falcons in their three road games.
In road games this year, the Raiders only average 14.7 points per game. Their highest road total was 20 points just last week in KC. The Colts defense is typically much better at home, and they will want to try and get their run game going to make a playoff push. With a time of possession advantage, I really like the Colts to keep the Raiders scoring at bay in this matchup.
My best bet: Raiders team total Under 19.5 (+102 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Raiders vs Colts same-game parlay
Raiders team total Under 19.5
Under 42.5
Colts -3.5
With the Raiders team total Under, we can parlay in some other props to hit some nice odds.
To combine with the team total Under for the Raiders, I will lean on the game total Under rather than the Colts team total Under. The Raiders defense has been fantastic since Pierce took over, but I don’t want to miss out on a SGP just in case the Colts win 30-7 or something of the like.
Finally, we will add the Colts to cover the spread. Prior to last week, the Raiders had not won a road game since Week 1 and every loss was by seven or more points. All Colts home wins have come by at least seven points, and I like their chances to pull another one at home to stay in the playoff hunt.
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Raiders vs Colts spread and Over/Under analysis
The Colts’ biggest flaw on defense is in the run game. However, the good news is that they will likely not have to deal with Jacobs. Even with Jacobs, the Raiders rank 31st in the NFL in rushing yards per game at 88.6. I expect the Colts to be able to win the battle on the ground on both ends and control possession in this contest.
It‘s a rare occasion this season for the Colts to be favored, but they have excelled in those situations. They are a perfect 5-0 both straight up and against the spread as favorites. They have also won those five games by an average margin of nine points per contest.
When Pierce took over the coaching job in Week 9, the Raiders had allowed 23.4 points per game and were 3-5. Since then, the Raiders have only allowed 15.3 points per contest. The Under is an impressive 7-3 in the last 10 Raiders games, and 5-2 in games under Pierce.
Raiders vs Colts betting trend to know
The Raiders have only hit the team total Over in seven of their last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Colts.
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Raiders vs Colts game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Sunday, December 31, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Colts -3.5, 43.5 O/U |
Raiders vs Colts latest injuries
Raiders vs Colts weather
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