The Las Vegas Raiders will be looking to end a five-game losing skid when they visit the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon at Hard Rock Stadium.
My Raiders vs. Dolphins predictions are eyeing Brock Bowers to continue his brilliance as one of the lone bright spots for Vegas this season. Here are my best NFL picks for Sunday, November 17.
Raiders vs Dolphins prediction
Who will win Raiders vs Dolphins?
Tua Tagovailoa has been playing very well since coming off the IR, and the win over the Rams gave the Dolphins some momentum in Week 10. I do expect Miami to put up points in bunches against a terrible Vegas defense.
Also, the Dolphins defense is quite solid and as we know, the Raiders aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. With Miami as a 7.5-point favorite on Sunday, I don’t see them having any issues winning and covering on home soil.
My best bet
Brock Bowers Over 52.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
There haven’t been many positives for the Las Vegas Raiders in 2024, but Bowers is certainly one. The former Georgia standout has already broken all sorts of records and sits at 57 receptions for 580 yards and two touchdowns. That leads Vegas by a mile, with Jakobi Meyers reeling in 39 catches.
Whether it’s Desmond Ridder, Gardner Minshew, or the injured Aidan O’Connell under center, Bowers is the main target for his quarterback. He’s hit the Over in receiving yards in all but three games this season. The tight end had just five grabs for 45 yards last weekend but comfortably hit the Over in four consecutive meetings before that.
The Miami Dolphins do have a solid pass defense, ranking eighth in the league. I don’t see Vegas scoring much, but Bowers will make his presence felt on Sunday. Lock in the Over.
Raiders vs Dolphins same-game parlay
Brock Bowers Over 52.5 receiving yards
De’Von Achane Over 61.5 rushing yards
Gardner Minshew Under 19.5 completions
Much in part due to the Tua injury, the Dolphins' pass offense hasn’t been great. They’ve relied more on the run game, with De’Von Achane averaging 4.4 yards per carry for two touchdowns. He’s also a key figure in their passing game, but we’ll focus on his abilities on the ground here.
While the former Texas A&M standout was held to just 37 rushing yards in Week 10, he hit the Over in three games in a row prior, tallying 63 yards, 97 yards, and 77 yards. We also have to take into account that Vegas doesn’t have a great run defense, ranking 22nd in the NFL. I’m banking on a big game for Achane in Week 11.
Minshew was replaced by Ridder in a Week 9 loss to the Bengals but Antonio Pierce announced he will start on Sunday. While none of the Raiders QB options are great, Minshew is probably their most consistent, which is quite sad since he’s thrown more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (6).
When it comes to completions, he’s averaging just 18.5 per contest and has hit the Under in five of the last six. The Dolphins defend the pass well and if Minshew struggles, Vegas will probably bring in Ridder. That’s part of the reason the Under holds value.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Raiders vs Dolphins odds
Raiders vs Dolphins live odds
Raiders vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: Las Vegas +7 (-110) | Miami -7 (-110)
- Moneyline: Las Vegas (+270) | Miami (-350)
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 (-110) | Under 45.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Raiders vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
- Vegas is 4-5 ATS this season
- Miami is 3-6 ATS this season.
- The Raiders have hit the Over in six of their nine games.
- The Dolphins have hit the Under in six of their nine contests.
Raiders vs Dolphins betting trend to know
The Dolphins have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 17 games (-6.55 Units / -33% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Raiders vs. Dolphins.
Raiders vs Dolphins game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-17, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
Raiders vs Dolphins latest injuries
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