Best NFL Sack and Tackle Props for Week 18: Fade Dremont Jones Against Speedy Kyler

Books have been slow to roll out player props for Week 18 odds because of the uncertainty of who will be playing. That's especially true for defensive player props, with far less available on the board compared to previous weeks.

Thankfully there are a few games that matter, so we have some defensive props to dig into. This week in NFL odds, I'm fading a trio of pass rushers on their sack total — including Miami's Christian Wilkins, who will have a tough time on Sunday night against Buffalo.

Here are my best free sack and tackle NFL picks for Week 18.

This week’s best sack and tackle props

• Calais Campbell Under 0.25 sacks (-130 at bet365)
• Dremont Jones Under 0.25 sacks (-145 at DraftKings)
• Christian Wilkins Under 0.25 sacks (-190 at bet365)
• Jalen Thompson Over 3.5 solo tackles (-105 at DraftKings)
• Quay Walker Under 7.5 total tackles (-110 at bet365)

Picks made on January 6 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of our sack picks and our tackle props

Best Week 18 sack picks

Falcons vs Saints: Calais Campbell

Atlanta Falcons defensive lineman Calais Campbell is still playing at an extremely high level considering that he's 37 years old. However, he isn't the same interior pass rusher that he was back in his prime when he notched a career-high 14.5 sacks with the Jaguars in 2017. Campbell has 5.5 sacks in 16 games this year while posting a 67.7 pass rush grade per Pro Football Focus. 

Campbell and the Falcons are on the road on Sunday against a New Orleans Saints team that has been doing an excellent job of protecting quarterback Derek Carr, allowing just 12 sacks over the last 10 games. With Campbell being held off the sack sheet in 11 of his 16 contests this season, take the Under 0.25 on his sacks. 

Calais Campbell: Under 0.25 sacks (-130 at bet365)

Seahawks vs Cardinals: Dremont Jones

Dremont Jones has been held without a sack in eight of his previous 11 games and has a mediocre pass rush grade of 65.6. On paper Arizona's offensive line looks like one of the worst in the league, but the Cardinals actually sit just below the league average with 2.6 sacks allowed per game.

Many of those sacks happened earlier in the season as well when the Cardinals were trying to find chemistry with their young offensive line while blocking for Josh Dobbs, who held on to the ball too long and scrambled into pressure.

With Kyler Murray back at QB, the Cardinals have been allowing fewer sacks. Over the last four games, Arizona has given up eight sacks despite facing teams that can bring the heat such as Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh. Don't expect Jones to sack Murray this week.

Dremont Jones Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-145 at DraftKings)

SNF Bills vs Dolphins: Christian Wilkins

Miami Dolphins Christian Wilkins has picked up a career-high eight sacks this season but his pass rush grade sits at a modest 68.8. Wilkins has been held off the sack sheet in five of the last eight games and he'll have a tough time getting to Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen on Sunday night. 

The Bills have allowed a league-low 21 sacks this season, with five of those coming way back in Week 1 against the Jets. Miami has lost its two best edge rushers Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips to season-ending injuries, so even when Wilkins does get a push up the middle, Allen should be able to get to the edge and avoid a sack.

Wilkins has become one of the top interior linemen in the league but he has just one sack in nine career games against Buffalo. Fade him on his sacks total here.

Christian Wilkins Prop: Under 0.25 sacks (-190 at bet365)

Best Week 18 tackle picks

Seahawks vs Cardinals: Jalen Thompson

Arizona Cardinals safety Jalen Thompson is coming off a quiet performance against the Eagles where he had just one solo tackle. However he had racked up at least four solo tackles in seven of his previous eight games. Thompson leads Arizona with 57 solo stops this season and he almost never comes off the field on defense.

Thompson either plays in the box where he can help in run support, or he lines up against the slot receiver where the Seattle Seahawks have been targeting rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba more in recent weeks. Either way, he should get plenty of tackling opportunities against a Seahawks team that loves to throw.

Jalen Thompson: Over 3.5 solo tackles (-105 at DraftKings)

Bears vs Packers: Quay Walker

Walker leads the Green Bay Packers with 109 total tackles but there are a few reasons to take the Under 7.5 on his tackles in Week 18.

Walker tends to get his tackles in bunches with his overall number, inflated by a game in September where he racked up 19 tackles and another where he had 17. In fact, he has had fewer than 7.5 tackles in nine of 13 games this season — including five of his previous six contests.

In addition, the Packers will also have De'Vondre Campbell back in the lineup after a two-game absence. Campbell was an All Pro in 2021 and is also a tackle machine, which means that Walker will have more competition when it comes to getting to the ball carrier first.

Quay Walker: Under 7.5 total tackles (-110 at bet365)

How are sack and tackle props calculated?

It's important to read the wording associated with the sack props at each specific sports book. Most books will list an Over/Under number which is set at 0.25 or 0.75, since players can be credited for 0.5 sacks for sharing a sack with a teammate. Other books will mark a sack as a "yes" or "no" proposition in which case half a sack will typically count as the player recording a sack.

Best strategies to bet sack and tackle props

There are several factors to consider when handicapping sack totals. The most obvious involves the defensive player himself. How often does he get sacks both in terms of his recent history and also over a larger sample size and does he consistently generate pressure. A player might have picked up sacks in three consecutive games but if he doesn't consistently beat his blocker, he's likely due for regression. On the other side of things, a player might be held off the sack sheet in four straight games, but if he's constantly pressuring opposing passers, it's only a matter of time before he gets a sack.

Who the defender is matching up against is also an important factor. How well does the projected starter opposite from him perform as a pass blocker and is that opposing player injured or playing out of position? In addition, is the offense able or willing to double-team the defender? Certain quarterbacks also hold on to the ball longer, have less pocket awareness, or don't have the mobility to evade pass rushers.

It's also important to consider how the rest of his team will affect a player's ability to get sacks. Perhaps his defensive coordinator is using him more in coverage, perhaps another defender is poaching his sacks or is allowing him to get easier matchups. Maybe improved play in the secondary will lead to coverage sacks.

Game situation also matters since an offense that throws the ball a lot or is expected to play from behind, will also give a defense more opportunity to get sacks. 

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