A pair of NFC South rivals face off with plenty at stake today as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the New Orleans Saints. The Buccaneers can clinch the division title and a playoff spot with a victory, but the Saints could steal it if they win out and the Tampa loses again next week.
NFL odds for this Week 17 clash opened with the Bucs as 3-point home faves before slimming to -2.5. Here are my best free NFL picks for the Saints vs. Buccaneers on December 31.
Saints vs Buccaneers odds
Saints vs Buccaneers predictions
New Orleans Saints wideout Chris Olave was limited in practice with an ankle injury on Wednesday, but he was dealing with that last week and still snagged nine of 13 targets for 123 yards against the Rams. Olave has now racked up more than 90 receiving yards in four of his last five games and should be poised for a big performance against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has surrendered a league-high 264.1 passing yards per game.
If it seems like the Bucs get burned by a top wideout nearly every week, it's because they do. They've allowed more than 100 receiving yards to nine different wide receivers this year, and that doesn't even count their matchup against Buffalo, where they allowed three different wide receivers to hit the 70-yard mark... or each of the last two games where they gave up 90 yards to Calvin Ridley and 97 yards to Dontayvion Wicks.
Olave had one of his worst games as a pro when the Saints faced Tampa back in Week 4, ending up with just a single catch for four yards on six targets. However, he played well against it last year as a rookie, picking up 80 yards in the first meeting and 65 yards in the rematch, and Tampa Bay's pass defense is worse this year.
The Bucs starting corners Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis have both allowed a passer rating of more than 110 into their coverage and Davis could be sidelined by a concussion. Expect Olave to be highly motivated by his mediocre performance against Tampa earlier this year and hammer the Over 66.5 on his receiving yards total. It wouldn't be a bad idea to also consider a sprinkle on his 100+ yards milestone which is currently paying out at +320.
My best bet: Chris Olave Over 66.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Saints vs Buccaneers same-game parlay
Chris Olave Over 66.5 receiving yards
Saints moneyline
Baker Mayfield Over 0.5 interceptions
This is the kind of divisional rivalry spot between two similarly ranked teams where taking the points typically works out long-term. In fact, in six of the last seven meetings between these rivals, the underdog has gone 6-1 against the spread while winning outright five times.
The Bucs have also been the second-luckiest team in the league while the Saints are second-last in the luck rankings, and as both of those trend toward the median, we should see positive regression for New Orleans and negative regression for Tampa Bay.
If the Saints pull off the upset victory on Sunday, they'll likely pick off Baker Mayfield at least once.
Mayfield hasn't thrown a pick in his last three games (not coincidently all Tampa Bay wins) but he had an interception in eight of his previous 10 contests. He's also been picked off in five of Tampa Bay's seven losses and the Saints stop unit is tied for eighth in the league with 14 interceptions.
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Saints vs Buccaneers spread and Over/Under analysis
The spread opened with the Bucs as 3-point home favorites with the O/U at 41. Tampa Bay has 74% of the Covers consensus and the majority of the tickets, but pro money has come in on the Saints, moving the line off that key number of -3 to -2.5. The total has also ticked up to 42.5.
The Saints are coming off a 30-22 road loss to the Rams last Thursday. They had won their previous two games by a combined 40 points, although that came against the Giants and Panthers.
The Saints' 4-10-1 ATS mark this season is tied for the worst in the league while the Bucs' 10-5 ATS record is tied for first. Tampa is on a four-game winning streak and has covered in seven of its last nine contests.
Saints vs Buccaneers betting trend to know
The underdog is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between these division rivals. Find more NFL betting trends for Saints vs. Buccaneers.
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Saints vs Buccaneers game info
| Location: | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, December 31, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Buccaneers -3, 41 O/U |
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