Week 12 odds in the NFL feature an AFC North showdown between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. This game could be a bit of a slog as NFL odds opened with an Over/Under of just 34.5 for this clash between these divisional rivals.
The Steelers will try to ignite their ice-cold offense after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, while the Bengals just lost superstar quarterback Joe Burrow to a season-ending injury. The spread has also flipped, with Cincinnati opening at -1 before shifting to favor Pittsburgh by a point.
Here are my best free NFL picks for Steelers vs Bengals on November 26.
Steelers vs Bengals odds
Steelers vs Bengals predictions
The Cincinnati Bengals will take a massive step back on offense without Joe Burrow, exacerbated by their offensive line's pass protection challenges and the probable absence of No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins for another game.
Jake Browning is set to assume the quarterback role, and although he had a productive college career at Washington, he went undrafted in 2019 and has since faced challenges in establishing himself as more than a practice squad player. Browning managed to beat out Trevor Siemian for the backup role this year and had just one career snap in the NFL before replacing the injured Burrow last week.
Browning led the Bengals to a garbage-time touchdown drive at the end of the game and also marched down the field for a field goal just after halftime. However, his other four drives resulted in just a single first down. The Bengals backup will have a rough time against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that ranks ninth in the league in EPA and brings a ton of pressure off the edge.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati's stop unit is significantly worse and ranks 25th in the league in defensive EPA while sitting just 30th in success rate. Although there's plenty wrong with the Steelers' offense, Matt Canada's terrible play-calling was a big reason why they averaged a pathetic 118.7 passing yards per game over their last three contests.
While Kenny Pickett isn't anything to write home about, the former first-round pick is better than those numbers would suggest and has turned the ball over just once in his last six games. The Steelers' ground game has also been picking up steam and they now rank sixth in the league in rush EPA.
In a game with a close spread between two offenses that will likely struggle, I'll ultimately back the side with the better defense.
My best bet: Steelers -1 (-110 at DraftKings)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Steelers vs Bengals same-game parlay
Steelers -1
Kenny Pickett Over 198.5 passing yards
Jaylen Warren Over 47.5 rushing yards
Quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan will take over the play-calling duties in Pittsburgh, and while he doesn't have a ton of experience, Sullivan has a strong rapport with Pickett.
Pickett has been held well below 200 yards in his last three games but he's been hamstrung by an offense that didn't allow him to throw downfield. The Steelers QB threw for more than 220 yards in five of his first six starts this year and I expect Sullivan to try and open up the playbook for him against a vulnerable Bengals secondary.
The Steelers have been piling up yards on the ground lately and naming Jaylen Warren as their starting running back has paid off. Warren has rushed for more than 80 yards in three consecutive games and is coming off a spectacular 129-yard performance against the Browns.
While 74 of those yards came on a single play, Warren still picked up 55 yards on his other eight carries. He should be able to eclipse his low rushing yards total against a Cincy side that is second-last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (138.3) and yards allowed per carry (5.0).
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Steelers vs Bengals spread and Over/Under analysis
The lookahead line for this contest had the Bengals as 5-point favorites, but when the news broke that Burrow was done for the year, that number shifted to -1 by Sunday evening. Money soon came in on the Steelers as 1-point pups and the line jumped the fence to favor Pittsburgh at -1.
The lookahead O/U was at 41.5, and with Browning under center, that total has plunged to 34.5.
Despite some low totals this season (including a total of 34 against the Browns with a backup QB last week), the Under has gone 7-1 in the Steelers' last eight games. They lost 13-10 to the Browns last week but they've still gone 6-3 — both straight up and against the spread — in their last nine games.
Steelers vs Bengals betting trend to know
The Steelers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Bengals.
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Steelers vs Bengals game info
| Location: | Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Sunday, November 26, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Bengals -6, 41.5 O/U |
Steelers vs Bengals latest injuries
Steelers vs Bengals weather
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