Severe winter weather in Western New York forced the NFL to postpone Sunday’s AFC Wild Card contest between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills to this afternoon. That decision, due to dangerous conditions in the Orchard Park area, flipped the sports betting industry upside down on Saturday.
Sportsbooks had to repost NFL odds for the game, which originally would’ve been played in extremely strong winds and snow. And many bettors who based their wagers on that winter weather were left out in the cold. Several operators’ house rules will keep those bets in action for today's game, which won’t be as harshly impacted by the elements.
I dig into the reposted spread and Over/Under total for the Wild Card odds as well as give my best NFL picks for Steelers vs. Bills and its new kickoff of 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday, January 15.
Finally, we've got a spotlight on Josh Allen odds and Steelers vs. Bills props to further fill out your betting slip.
Steelers vs Bills odds
Steelers vs Bills predictions
Postponing this AFC Wild Card game to Monday didn’t just shake up the spread and total but all betting markets had to be reset after being sculpted by the pending winter storm forecast for the original Sunday schedule.
Also getting a reboot with the game sliding to Monday was the game narrative and how bettors saw Steelers-Bills playing out. Pittsburgh was expected to lean into its running backs heavily in those blizzard conditions and honestly, that will still be the focus even with clearer conditions Monday afternoon.
You could say the importance of a successful rushing attack is even more vital for the Pittsburgh Steelers now, as they’ll need to play paced possession football to keep the ball away from the Buffalo Bills offense.
Pittsburgh enters this Wild Card Round on a three-game winning streak and ran the ball more than any other team in the league in the final three weeks of the regular season — calling run on more than 60% of its offensive snaps.
That means a heavy day for running back Jaylen Warren, who’s seen his involvement in the offense increase in the final third of the season. Warren’s snap counts spiked since Week 14 and is very much sharing the rushing load 50/50 with fellow RB Najee Harris.
Where Warren has differentiated himself from Harris is his role in the Pittsburgh passing game and it’s a role that could be utilized just as heavily against the Bills. That has me eyeing Warren’s combined prop of rushing + receiving yards for Monday.
His player prop has this rush + receiving as low as 54.5 combined yards at FanDuel while other operators are as high as 60.5 O/U for this market.
Warren’s rushing projections range from 33.9 to as high as 50 yards with some models, against a rushing yard total as low as 32.5 O/U (FanDuel). My forecast calls for 40.3 gains on the ground from the shifty back out of Oklahoma State.
He’s averaged 10.4 carries per game over the past 10 contests and faces a Buffalo defense that has been soft against the run this season. The Bills wrapped the year sitting in the bottom third of most rushing defense metrics, including EPA allowed per run and yards per attempt against.
Where Warren’s worth — and added value in the combo prop market — comes into play is in the passing playbook. He’s been one of Mason Rudolph’s most popular options, drawing an average of 5.25 targets in the QB’s four games under center for the Steelers.
Warren has posted receiving yard efforts of 17, 23, 28, and 30 yards in that span and takes on a Buffalo defense that has been susceptible to pass-catching running backs this season. The Bills have allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to the position, allowing 8.3 yards per reception to running backs.
The prop markets for Monday have Warren’s receiving yard total sitting at 18.5 yards O/U while player projections all sit north of this total. Models range from 20.06 to as many as 28.2 yards with my number just shy of 24 yards through the air.
His passing yards could have a higher ceiling based on the revamped game script since weather is no longer as major a factor.
Pittsburgh is a 10-point favorite with the total at 37.5 on Monday — 4.5 points higher than the O/U before the game was postponed. That means the Steelers will likely be playing from behind and passing more in the second half.
That scenario gives Warren’s snap counts a short in the arm over Harris, as he’s the capable pass catcher. Buffalo’s vaunted pass rush (second-highest pressure rate) will come after Rudolph, who will look to Warren frequently as a checkdown option.
Given my projections, the advantageous matchup, and increased involvement for Warren, I have the Steelers’ RB pegged for at least 64 combined rushing/receiving yards against the Bills on Monday, which is more than enough to get Over the shorter total of 54.5 combo yards at FanDuel.
My best bet: Jaylen Warren Over 54.5 rushing + receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Steelers vs Bills same-game parlay
Jaylen Warren Over 32.5 rushing yards
Jaylen Warren Over 18.5 receiving yards
James Cook anytime TD
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The Steelers have been running on more than 60% of snaps during their winning streak and Warren has seen an even share of those carries.
If Pittsburgh is trailing in the second half, Warren’s pass-catching prowess makes him a valuable target against a Bills stop unit that has struggled to defend dual-threat RBs.
James Cook, meanwhile, can find the end zone on the ground and through the air. His TD value in the red zone goes up in the second half if the Bills start to run away on the scoreboard and protect Josh Allen from any unnecessary harm.
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Steelers vs Bills spread and Over/Under analysis
The original spread had settled into a market consensus of Bills -10, with money on the Steelers trimming that to -9.5 before Saturday’s decision to postpone the game. This line shrunk in conjunction with the original total, which opened as high as 42.5 and slipped to as low as 33 points due to the pending forecast for the weekend.
With the dip in projected points, the double-digit spread would be a challenge for Buffalo to cover — especially with the estimated 50-60 mph gusts grounding the Bills’ downfield passing game.
However, after the league announced the move to Monday, sportsbooks re-opened this spread at Buffalo -10 and we’ve seen some shops climb to -10.5.
Monday’s forecast predicts snow to stop before the 4:30 p.m. ET start time with sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts reaching 35 mph but calming in the second half. These conditions, while still a factor, are nowhere as near as crippling as Sunday’s original forecast.
The biggest difference is now Buffalo will be able to utilize its biggest strength in the passing playbook. The Bills have a significant edge on offense compared to Pittsburgh’s passing attack, with quarterback Josh Allen possessing arm strength that allows him to throw against stronger breezes.
The Bills finished the year No. 5 in EPA per dropback and third in success rate per dropback, with a dependency on the deep ball. Allen and the Bills’ passing playbook is tops in intended air yards and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt in the final three games of the regular season.
The Steelers defense will be trying to close in on Allen before those big plays can develop. Pittsburgh was among the most blitz-heavy stop units in the NFL this season and finished 11th in pressure rate but will be without elite pass rusher T.J. Watt (sprained MCL) for Monday’s matchup.
Pittsburgh’s passing game may not be as consistent a threat downfield, but Mason Rudolph has the Steelers playing their best two-way football of the season. The team qualified for the postseason thanks to a three-game winning streak to end the schedule, in which Pittsburgh ranked No. 4 in EPA per play and averaged a league-high 10.3 yards per pass attempt.
The Steelers did lean into their ground game during this span, handing off at the highest run rate in the final three weeks of the season. Pittsburgh owned the second-highest success rate per run in that span and will likely play a paced game on the ground, as it attempts to control tempo and possession to park the Bills’ offense on the sideline.
Buffalo’s defense has picked up its play in the final third of the season but this group has been susceptible to the run for most of the year. The Bills finished 24th in EPA allowed per carry and gave up the fifth-most yards per attempt to rival rushing attacks.
As mentioned, the original Over/Under total opened at 42.5 and shrunk to as low as 33 points based on the pending weather for Sunday, but upon the postponement to Monday, bookmakers re-opened the total as high as 39 points Saturday afternoon. Early play took the Under and chipped this number down to 37.5 points as of Sunday morning.
Again, Monday’s forecast calls for snow storms to clear the Orchard Park area before the 4:30 p.m. ET start with winds reaching 35 mph gust before calming to around 20 mph in the second half. Game-time temperatures will “feel like” 5 degrees.
Steelers vs Bills betting trend to know
The Bills are 9-1 SU as a double-digit favorite since 2022 but have gone just 2-8 against those sizable spreads in that span. Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Bills.
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Steelers vs Bills game info
| Location: | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date: | Monday, January 15, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Bills -7.5, 43 O/U |
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Steelers vs Bills weather
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