The Pittsburgh Steelers head to Seattle to take on the Seahawks this evening, coming off a Christmas miracle win over the Cincinnati Bengals behind the arm of Mason Rudolph. Rudolph with his arm so bright was able to lead Mike Tomlin’s sleigh and keep the Steelers alive in the playoff hunt.
Seattle is coming off a win over the Tennessee Titans and remains in the seven-seed slot of the NFC playoff picture, the defense has been exposed on the ground in recent weeks. The NFL odds have the Hawks as 3.5-point favorites, but Pittsburgh is in position to get after Pete Carroll’s run defense.
Find out where my best bets lie in our NFL picks and predictions for Steelers vs. Seahawks on Sunday, December 31.
Steelers vs Seahawks odds
Steelers vs Seahawks predictions
Without a doubt it’s been a topsy-turvy year for the Pittsburgh Steelers offense with offensive coordinator Matt Canada fired, running backs coach Eddie Faulkner promoted to replace him, and quarterback coach Mike Sullivan calling plays. It hasn’t helped that Kenny Pickett looked like a bust before getting hurt and Mitchell Trubisky was awful in his place.
It’s hard to get a good idea of how this offense will look in Mason Rudolph’s second start of the season after he helped hang 34 on the Bengals last week. After all, this offense is scoring just 17.1 points per game, 28th in the NFL, and ranks 25th in EPA per play, 25th in EPA per dropback, and 16th in EPA per rush.
This game against the Seattle Seahawks will be a true test of how this run game has come together this season after a slow start and the ceiling of an offensive line that was built to run the ball. It’s a prove-it game for Najee Harris, who has an appetizing line of 54.5 rushing yards.
While Harris has yet to live up to his first-round billing, he’s been a capable runner who seems to have found his groove in recent weeks, especially when the offensive line brings some attitude to the table.
The Seahawks have one of the worst defenses in the league sitting 29th in EPA per play and it’s been especially bad against the run. It’s 30th in EPA per rush and giving up the sixth most rushing yards per game in the NFL, 129.6.
Coming off a game in which the Titans ran on it for 162 yards despite Tennessee having one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, Pittsburgh is poised to build its offensive game plan around Harris and Jaylen Warren.
On the season, Seattle has allowed at least 55 rushing yards to 13 different players in 15 games and has given up at least 80 rushing yards to opposing teams in 12 games. So while Pittsburgh is in the middle of the pack in terms of rushing offenses — the Steelers have run for 110.2 yards per game this season, 16th in the NFL — Harris can continue to build momentum against a defensive line that’s looking for consistent play.
Per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, Harris is having his most efficient year as a runner with an efficiency score of 3.95; he was at a 4.2 last season and a 3.97 in 2021. He’s on pace for fewer rushing yards this season, but averaging a career-best four yards per carry and has 801 rushing yards in 15 games.
He’s been averaging 13.4 carries for 53.4 rushing yards per game this season and has rushed for at least 55 yards in seven of 15 games. And while that might not get the blood pumping, he’s been better with Sullivan as the playcaller.
Since Sullivan began calling plays in Week 12 against the Bengals, Harris is averaging more carries per game (14.8) and more rushing yards 60.4. This is the perfect opportunity for Harris to run wild and prove why he was a first-round pick out of Alabama.
My best bet: Najee Harris Over 54.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
Steelers vs Seahawks same-game parlay
Najee Harris Over 54.5 rushing yards
Najee Harris anytime TD
Jaylen Warren Over 36.5 rushing yards
The Seahawks haven’t just been giving up big rushing yards, they’ve been allowing plenty of touchdowns on the ground too. Seattle has allowed the fourth most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season with 20 in 15 games and has allowed at least one in 12 games.
Harris hasn’t been a touchdown machine this season with just five in 15 games, but all five have come in his last 10 games. He’s scored twice in five games since Sullivan took over play-calling.
Not only is Harris set up to have a nice day against the Seahawks, but so is Warren. Warren is one of the best backup running backs in the NFL and has rushed for 676 yards this season on 5.3 per carry and has averaged 45.1 rushing yards per game this season.
The former undrafted free agent out of Oklahoma State has rushed for at least 37 yards in seven of 15 games this season. Since Week 12, when Sullivan took over, he’s gone for at least 37 yards in three of five games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Steelers vs Seahawks spread and Over/Under analysis
The line hasn’t shifted even with some initial uncertainty about who the Steelers would start at quarterback. The line opened with the Seahawks favored 3.5 points pretty much everywhere and confirmation Rudolph would start hasn’t changed it.
This season Pittsburgh is 8-7 ATS, but 2-4 in its last six games. Seattle meanwhile is one of the best in the league ATS at 8-5-2 and has gone 4-2 in its last six.
The total opened between 40.5 and 41 and remains there. The Steelers are 5-10 betting the Over this season and the Seahawks aren’t much better at 6-9.
Steelers vs Seahawks betting trend to know
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 away games (+3.45 Units / 29% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Steelers vs. Seahawks.
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Steelers vs Seahawks game info
| Location: | Lumen Field, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 31, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Seahawks -4, 40.5 O/U |
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Steelers vs Seahawks weather
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