Two weeks of hype, analysis, and anticipation come to a head in New Orleans this evening when the Philadelphia Eagles face the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 59.
There’s no shortage of juicy storylines for this showdown, nor is there a shortage of ways to wager on the Super Bowl odds, but when it comes to my Eagles vs. Chiefs predictions for the Big Game, I keep it simple: who will hold the Lombardi Trophy when the confetti flies in the Caesars Superdome later tonight.
Here are my best NFL picks for Super Bowl 59, kicking off at 6:30 p.m. ET and airing live on FOX.
Chiefs vs Eagles prediction and best bet
- Spread prediction: Chiefs -1 (-105 at Caesars)
- Moneyline prediction: Chiefs moneyline (-115 at Caesars)
- Over/Under prediction: Under 48.5 (-110 at Caesars)
- Best bet: Chiefs -1 (-105 at Caesars)
Chiefs vs Eagles spread
The point spread for Super Bowl LIX opened with Kansas City as a 1.5-point favorite. That held steady for more than a week, but action on the Eagles trimmed that line to Chiefs -1 at some markets earlier this week.
Rarely do we see a 1.5-point favorite win outright but not cover (only four times since 1985), and with the spread slimming to -1, you’re essentially picking which team will win (1-point chalk has won but failed to cover 11 times in that same span).
For me, that team is the Chiefs. But more on that below.
Chiefs vs Eagles moneyline
As mentioned, with a spread at -1, we’re pretty much picking the winner. When it comes to the Chiefs, the short spread often ends up with a victory for both the team and bettors.
Kansas City is 10-5 SU when laying less than a field goal since Patrick Mahomes took over as QB1 back in 2018.
Chiefs vs Eagles Over/Under
This look-ahead total was as short as 45.5 points before the results of Championship Weekend. Once the dust settled on a high-scoring Sunday, bookies opened the Super Bowl LIX Over/Under at 48.5, and that number ran to 49.5 at most shops.
Under action has chipped away at that total, with the O/U now down to 48.5 points. Even with that dip, I like the Under. We’re still on the high side of the key number of 47 points, and these two offenses chew up shorter gains at methodical paces, complementing two of the best defenses in the land.
Chiefs vs Eagles best bet
Chiefs -1 (-105 at Caesars)
My analysis
Given that there’s a surplus of angles and edges for both sides, you have to boil the Super Bowl predictions down to the bones. The true basics that win a football game.
The Kansas City Chiefs have the edge at quarterback. Jalen Hurts is a fantastic player, but he’s not Patrick Mahomes, the Super Bowl MVP odds favorite. Not only does No. 15 have the “Big Game balls” to thrive in the crucial moments, but he’s had success against Vic Fangio’s schemes throughout his career and comes off a sterling performance versus Buffalo in the AFC title game.
The Chiefs also have an advantage in the coaching ranks. Andy Reid and Matt Nagy have a dynamic playbook that doesn’t have to lean on one star weapon to get the job done, which makes it extremely difficult to plan for. Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo is always one play ahead of the opposition and constantly leaving rival QBs hearing the footsteps of one of the fiercest pass rushes in football.
Truth be told, I don’t know if we’ve seen the best of the Chiefs yet. From the moment they won Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas last year, the talk has been about winning three straight titles. And that goal was coming out of every players’ mouth the second the whistle blew and the confetti flew.
In order to make history as the first NFL team to win three in a row, Kansas City had to concede that the regular season was not the priority. Sure, the Chiefs played hard and pushed for the top seed, but that wasn’t the goal. The goal was surviving and getting to the postseason with the pieces intact. They’ve done that for the most part.
We got an appetizer of full-power K.C. between Week 15 and Week 17 when it seemed like the Chiefs needed to kick their own tires to see if they could turn it on at will. It worked. Kansas City was a black hole for bettors all season, besides that three-game stretch in which it went 3-0 ATS.
The Chiefs found that same gear in the AFC Championship Game, which seemed closer than it really was. Kansas City moved the chains at will, finished a collective 6-for-10 on third/fourth down conversions, went 4-for-6 in the red zone, and cracked the 30-point bar for the first time all season.
That was good enough to beat the Bills. Kansas City will need to clear a high bar to knock off the Philadelphia Eagles, who present a much stiffer defensive challenge than any other foes the Chiefs have taken on this season.
But when you have the best coaches and the best quarterback (perhaps of all time?), things tend to work out.
Get more Super Bowl predictions from Jason with the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Super Bowl picks (and best bets) from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
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Chiefs vs Eagles same-game parlay (SGP)
Chiefs moneyline
Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown
Xavier Worthy 50+ receiving yards
Jalen Hurts 40+ rushing yards
The Chiefs are in for a fight, but when the smoke settles in the Big Easy, Mahomes and Reid will make NFL history.
Kareem Hunt has scored at least one touchdown in all six of his postseason games and is getting the red-zone carries for Kansas City.
Xavier Worthy can break off a big play at any time and his projections call for 50 or more receiving yards in SBLIX.
Hurts has had two weeks to heal his knee and will need to make plays — and plenty of them — with his legs if Philly is going to keep pace.
Looking for more analysis? Read my full Chiefs vs. Eagles same-game parlay prediction ahead of kickoff tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Chiefs vs Eagles odds
Chiefs vs Eagles live odds
Chiefs vs Eagles opening odds
- Spread: Kansas City -1.5 | Philadelphia +1.5
- Moneyline: Kansas City -121 | Philadelphia +108
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Chiefs vs Eagles spread and Over/Under analysis
• The point spread opened at Kansas City -1.5 and has dipped to -1, with the vig slimming to -105. As of 4 p.m. ET on Super Bowl Sunday, most books are at Kansas City -1 with a select few still hanging the half-point hook at -1.5.
• The total opened at 48.5 and jumped to 49.5 with the initial action on the Over. However, respected action on the Under showed up late last week and knocked this down to 48.5. As of Super Sunday, the market consensus is 48.5 with most shops at a flat -110.
• According to Covers Consensus, 55% of spread picks are taking the Eagles as short underdogs while 67% of picks on the total are siding with the Over.
• The moneyline odds have seen the biggest ups and downs since opening. Philadelphia hit the board as big as +115 and drew a lot of action throughout the two-week ramp up to Super Bowl. The Eagles got as low as -105 before buyback on the Chiefs took this to the market consensus of Kansas City -120/Philadelphia +100 on gameday.
• This is the fourth meeting between these teams since 2021. Kansas City won a 42-30 shootout in 2021, covering as 7-point road chalk while playing Over the closing total of 54.5 points. The Chiefs would also win Super Bowl LVII in Arizona by a score of 38-35, covering as 1-point pups and topping the 51-point number. Philadelphia won the most recent matchup, 21-17 in Kansas City in Week 11 of 2023, covering as a 2.5-point underdog and finishing Under the 46-point Over/Under total.
Chiefs vs Eagles betting trend to know
The Chiefs are 16-7 SU and ATS in games with a spread shorter than a field goal (-2.5 to +2.5), including a 6-1 SU and ATS record in games with spreads between -1.5 and +1.5. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Eagles.
How to watch Chiefs vs Eagles
| Location | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA |
| Date | Sunday, 2-9-2025 |
| Kickoff | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Find out how to live stream Super Bowl 59 for free.
Chiefs vs Eagles latest injuries
The Eagles have officially activated defensive end Brandon Graham. The 36-year-old had been on the injured reserve since Week 12 when he tore his triceps in a win against the Los Angeles Rams.
Many feared it would be a career-ending injury for the 15-year vet, but he committed himself to a rigorous rehab regimen and was a full participant at practice on Friday.
“I feel good,” he told reporters. “This has been the easiest injury, I'd say, out of the injuries I've had. Upper body stuff is a little bit easier.”
Beyond Graham, both teams have gotten healthy at just the right time. Jalen Hurts was battling a knee issue prior to the NFC Championship Game but looked fine during that win, rushing for three touchdowns. He was not listed on the Eagles' injury report this week.
Check out our Super Bowl last minute odds, news & injuries report for further details before game time.
Chiefs vs Eagles weather
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