Super Bowl 58 Head-to-Head Position Prop Picks and Odds: Butker Gets the Better of Moody

The Super Bowl odds offerings are not slowing down, and just when you think you’ve looked at every market, I’m here to introduce you to head-to-head or matchup markets.

These are Super Bowl props markets where sportsbooks offer two players in a spread format in terms of total yards, carries, or receptions. There are a ton to look through and if your game script Super Bowl predictions are correct, you could be very profitable here.

I continue to explore the Super Bowl prop bet markets and break down my best head-to-head prop wager in my NFL picks for Sunday, February 11.

Don't forget to check out our Chiefs vs. 49ers predictions for more analysis of Super Bowl 58.

Best Super Bowl Head-to-Head Position Prop Picks

Harrison Butker vs Jake Moody: Longest field goal

Kickers are people too and they’re always the forgotten heroes heading into the final game of the year. 

I’m not going kicker-less in my account this year as I feel Kansas City Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker has the edge this year in a head-to-head longest field goal market over San Francisco 49ers kicker Jake Moody.

This is being offered as a 50/50 bet at bet365 as the team to kick the longest field is priced at -115 aside. This might not be a typical head-to-head or matchup market where I’m betting Isiah Pacheco +23.5 rushing yards at -115 vs. Christian McCaffrey, for example, but this is my favorite bet when comparing two players who do the same thing for each team. Basically, this is Butker to kick the longest field goal on the moneyline at -115 with the push in play.

Butker has one of the best legs in all of football. He made 40 of 42 kicks this year, went a perfect 8-for-8 from 40-49 yards, and hit all six of his attempts from 50-plus yards. His 95.2% rate would make even Adam Vinatieri blush.

Looking at volume, he has made more kicks than anyone in the league and crushed a 52-yarder in Baltimore in the Championship Round in poor kicking conditions late in that first half. Andy Reid trusts these glutes. 

Butker also has a QB that can get him into long field-goal position with less than 30 seconds, which is also an edge over the 49ers as Brock Purdy doesn’t have that gear in his game yet as a shorter aDOT QB.

The Niners’ Jake Moody is not in Butker’s league in terms of consistency and hitting long kicks. The 24-year-old kicker will be playing in his first Super Bowl so there could be some nerves there. He has already missed a field goal in each of his playoff games this year — both from 48 yards.

On the season, he’s hit just seven of 13 kicks from 40-plus yards and has just one attempt of 50-plus yards since Week 8. Butker gets asked to kick from long range more often and is far more accurate than Moody’s 80% success rate, which ranks outside the Top 25 in the league.

Finally, Butker knows this track very well having played at Allegiant Stadium each year over the last four seasons. He also has 18 games of playoff experience with an 87.5% success rate.    

Considering the even pricing on this prop, Butker has a big edge to kick the longest field goal as he’s arguably the best kicker in football and his team trusts him from 40-plus yards more than Moody's does.

Additionally, if you find yourself staring at a Butker vs. Moody matchup prop for points, I’d take the former at -1.5 at -120 or better. 

Longest field goal prop pick: Chiefs (-115 at bet365)

Patrick Mahomes vs Brock Purdy matchup pick: Total passing yards

The passing yards matchup for Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy is set at 15.5 yards in favor of Mahomes with a total of 502.5 yards. It’s hard to nail the spread as the difference is going to be heavily reliant on the closing game script and which quarterback is passing late. However, with THE BLITZ projecting 60 total passing yards to the Over at 563, why take one QB when bettors can take both?

A lot of the reason THE BLITZ likes both QBs passing Overs has a lot to do with the improved passing volume and efficiency that comes indoors that isn’t always priced in. 
Everyone has been talking about how each team can run the ball, which also sets up big-gain potential in the play-action game.

This market doesn’t need both signal-callers to sling it, as a 300-yard effort from the trailing QB combined with a 225-yard effort from the winner will still give this a green checkmark.

Total passing yards matchup: Over 502.5 yards (-110 at FanDuel)

Christian McCaffrey vs Isiah Pacheco matchup pick: Total receptions

Christian McCaffrey is -1.5 receptions vs. Isiah Pacheco in the total receptions matchup and paying just -120 to finish with two or more catches. Considering CMC’s reception market is at 4.5 and Pacheco’s at 2.5 — both juiced to the Over — this looks like an easy spot to back the San Francisco running back.
 
If the Chiefs are playing with the lead late in this game, this could be a lay-up, but expect the 49ers’ RB to have a much bigger role in the passing game than Pacheco, who is ceding third-down work to Clyde Edwards-Helaire. 
 
Since the bye, McCaffrey is averaging 6.3 targets per game, and in the majority of those games he’s been leading. Compare that to Pacheco’s 3.2 targets per game over his last 10, and the 49er RB is averaging more catches (4.6) than Pacheco is averaging targets.

McCaffrey has a huge volume advantage as he has seen double-digit targets in three of his last 10 games, while Pacheco has seen more than four targets just once over that same stretch.

Total receptions matchup: Christian McCaffrey -1.5 receptions vs. Isiah Pacheco (-120 at FanDuel)

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