Isiah Pacheco has Super Bowl MVP odds of +3,300 which is a great number considering he's one of three players who contribute to this Kansas City offense.
The running back has scored in seven straight games, but it’s his rushing markets that I'm focusing on for my Super Bowl predictions. He has appealing Super Bowl odds and a good matchup vs. a San Francisco defense that has been getting gouged on the ground, and Pacheco is primed for an explosive gain or two in Las Vegas.
After taking a look at Isiah Pacheco odds, these are my favorite NFL picks for the Kansas City running back come February 11.
If you want more great bets for the Big Game, check out our Super Bowl 58 prop picks and Rashee Rice player spotlight!
Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl prop picks
- Longest rush Over 15.5 yards
- Pacheco anytime TD/Pacheco Over 17.5 receiving yds/Chiefs 1H TT Over 10.5
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl prop pick
Longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-110)
Say what you want about his running style, but the Chiefs aren’t in the Super Bowl without Pacheco’s output since the Week 9 bye.
Over those eight games, he’s totaled eight touchdowns, 80.5 rushing yards per game on a 4.6-ypc mark, and added in 14 receiving yards per game. He dominates the share in the backfield, playing 80% of the snaps last week and getting 28 of the 59 total touches. He failed to top his longest rush prop of 15.5 yards, but that likely won’t be the case vs. the 49ers.
San Francisco was awful containing the edge, as both David Montgomery and Jamyr Gibbs had success on the outside with both backs having carries of 15-plus yards. KC’s outside run frequency is the second-highest in football at 50% and is a spot where the Chiefs could have plenty of success vs. a defense that ranked 26th in EPA/rush on the year.
.@Jahmyr_Gibbs1 is ELECTRIC. @Lions cash in on the turnover! #AllGrit
— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2024
📺: #DETvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/XwmpMOrRKT
The Niners have also been susceptible to the big rush play and have given up a 15-plus yard carry to a lead running back in five of their last six games and in each match in the playoffs. The indoor track is also working against them as the faster surface should benefit Pacheco, who ran for two TDs and had 90 total yards in this same setting vs. the Raiders this year.
The Aaron Jones run encapsulated what Steve Wilks was talking about. Yes, Young did a bad job on the edge here, but the overpursuit and getting too wide on the second level is what turns it into a huge run. That and a very bad tackle attempt from Ryan. pic.twitter.com/PobsY3vQIY
— Nicholas McGee (@nicholasmcgee24) January 25, 2024
Pacheco has had a carry of at least 15 yards in 10 of his 17 games this year and averages 0.8 breakaway carries per game which are measured in runs of 15+ yards.
I’m staying away from his total rushing yards as the Chiefs are one of the pass-heaviest teams in football but that also works in his favor for big gains with possibly less men in the box vs. the RB.
His TD price has plummeted from +130 to -130, but his longest rush market has stayed the same from last week. He’s hit this in four of the last six games and was on a 3-0 run to the Over before the Baltimore matchup on a wet and slower surface.
With KC’s commitment to running to the outside coupled with the 49ers’ issues in containing the edge and over-pursuing, Pacheco will have multiple opportunities to turn some tosses into big games on the fast track of Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders averaged 0.4 more yards per carry at home than on the road this year.
Prop: Longest rush Over 15.5 yards (-110 at FanDuel) 
Isiah Pacheco Super Bowl same-game parlay
Isiah Pacheco anytime TD
Isiah Pacheco Over 17.5 receiving yards
Chiefs first-half team total Over 10.5
There's no option to add the Over 15.5 yards longest rushing attempt at FanDuel but Pacheco's Over 17.5 receiving yards is a great substitute for a back with a reception total of 3.5. THE BLITZ is projecting 23.2 receiving yards as he's the No.3 option in the passing game for an offense that passes more than 30 other teams.
The anytime TD is added to boost the odds. My price point for his TD is +110 but because he has scored in seven straight games, his price has dropped but adding a high-win-percentage play to an SGP here helps.
Kansas City has been a much better 1H scoring team at 14.6 points per game compared to 7.6 points per second half on the season. Over their last nine playoff games, this offense has scored on the opening drive eight times consecutively, including six TDs.
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