The beer is in the fridge. The chicken wings are sizzling. Your Super Bowl 59 bets are locked in… almost.
If you’re looking to add a few last-minute wagers to your Big Game betting portfolio, these are some of my favorite NFL picks and Chiefs vs. Eagles predictions to get in before the whistle blows at 6:30 p.m. ET.
Super Bowl coin toss
Of the thousands and thousands of ways to wager on Super Bowl LIX, the coin toss odds are the fairest of them all. That’s especially true if you can find a sportsbook offering EVEN on Heads vs. Tails (bet365).
Most shops will peg this popular prop at -105 vig for either result, given that this is a 50/50 proposition. But a select number of operators will put up 1/1 odds on the Super Bowl coin toss just to offer an appetizer that entices more Big Game bets at their book.
It’s a great last-minute wager to make since the odds won’t move, unlike everything else on Super Sunday. If you have a couple bucks left in your Super Bowl bankroll and kickoff is closing in, take a shot on Heads or Tails but make sure you’re getting true odds at +100.
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Saquon Barkley Over rushing yards
If you think the Philadelphia Eagles’ star running back has a big day in the Big Easy, you’re getting the better of the number on Super Sunday.
Saquon Barkley’s rushing markets have been wild in the postseason. Books closed his yardage total at 122.5 O/U for the NFC Championship Game and took one-sided play on the Over, regardless of that high bar.
His rushing yard prop for Super Bowl LIX opened as high as 119.5 O/U and has dropped as many as 10 yards across the market, with Barkley’s Over/Under on rushing yards currently as low as 109.5 O/U (-110) at FanDuel.
We’re seeing a “Joes versus Pros” set up at the sportsbooks when it comes to this prop bet.
Operators like BetMGM are reporting 67% of ticket count and 65% of the handle on the Over for Saquon’s rushing total. Yet, this number has shrunk considerably with some respected opinions on the Under coming in during the week.
Player projections are all over the place when it comes to Barkley’s output on the ground. Some models are as short as 89 yards while others forecast a ceiling of 123 yards. My personal projection is around 103 yards but Barkley is more than capable of laying waste to those Super Bowl predictions.
If your Super Bowl script sees the Eagles riding their star RB to glory, then you can find Barkley Over 109.5 rushing yards at -110 here on gameday. When it comes to beating the bookies in the biggest game of the year, getting the best of the number is vital.
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Most receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX – DeVonta Smith
Star Super Bowl props take a ton of action, so come gameday you can find solid numbers on those second-tier talents.
If we look at Caesars’ odds for the player to record the most receiving yards in Super Bowl LIX, we find the usual suspects: A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, and Xavier Worthy. All of those pass-catching options are +340 or shorter.
Then we come to Eagles receiver DeVonta Smith at +500. The Louisiana native is primed for a big performance in the Big Easy, given his history against the Kansas City Chiefs.
Smith led Philadelphia with 100 receiving yards when the Eagles and Chiefs battled in Super Bowl LVII two years ago, but he’s also torched Steve Spagnuolo’s defense for big gains in two regular season matchups.
Smith caught seven of 10 balls his way for 122 yards in a Week 4 game with Kansas City in 2021 and had six receptions on eight targets for 99 yards versus K.C. in Week 11 of last season.
Philadelphia moves Smith around but primarily utilizes the 2020 Heisman Trophy winner in the slot. The Chiefs’ passing defense has struggled to contain slot receivers this season, ranked fifth-worst in terms of fantasy points allowed to slot WRs while giving up the second highest output to receivers in the middle of the field (vs. the perimeter).
Smith has the historical and hometown edge to lead all players in receiving yards on Super Sunday.
Kansas City first scoring method – Field Goal
The Chiefs have an extremely efficient offense but take on a vaunted stop unit in Vic Fangio’s Eagles.
Philadelphia doesn’t allow for many big plays and boasts the fifth best red-zone defense in the land (48.28%), dropping that to TD rate 40% in the postseason. So far in the playoffs, the Eagles have left foes to settle for seven total field goal attempts over their three games.
Kansas City is a patient attack and Andy Reid isn’t one to press the panic button early on. If the Chiefs’ first drive stalls out, there’s a good chance they’re within Harrison Butker’s range and will gladly take the three points.
Butker’s total made field goals prop has been shark infested waters during the ramp up to Super Bowl LIX, with plenty of respected money showing up for the Over. That’s driven the price from Over 1.5 FGMs from -125 to as high as -185.
Respecting that one-sided action on KC’s kicker, we can piggyback off that opinion and grab a pretty nice return on the Chiefs’ first method of scoring to be a field goal in Super Bowl LIX. This prop is listed at +320 at bet365.
