Travis Kelce's production in his postseason career has been legendary. Over his last dozen playoff games, he’s averaging nearly 100 yards and more than a touchdown, and everyone in North America is privy to that information ever since he became a household name thanks to Taylor Swift's presence.
However, these are things priced into the Super Bowl odds, and with his reception total jumping a full catch and paying solid plus money to the Under, is it time to buy some Under shares for the most bet-on player in Super Bowl 58?
After taking a look at Travis Kelce odds, these are my favorite Super Bowl picks surrounding the Chiefs tight end come February 11.
Travis Kelce Super Bowl prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Travis Kelce Super Bowl prop pick
Under 6.5 receptions (+118)
I’m not here to bet the Under on Travis Kelce’s receiving yards as his number has climbed as high as 70.5 yards and could still go higher. My issue is with the move from 5.5 to 6.5 receptions which is also a very expensive Over at -144.
It may not be the most exciting prop I’ve put in the account, but the ugly ones are usually the best value and that’s the case with Kelce’s Under 6.5 receptions at +118.
This isn’t a layup but does have a better than 50% chance to cash, per THE BLITZ, which is projecting fewer than 6.5 catches for the Kansas City Chiefs tight end. This is also a projection that accounts heavily for the indoor environment and the boost it has for passing volume and efficiency.
The model is still projecting 76 receiving yards, but the reception market is certainly at its peak after an 11-catch performance vs. Baltimore on 11 targets. That efficiency is hard to replicate and the San Francisco 49ers have one of the best defenses when it comes to defending the middle of the field with their big and athletic linebackers.
This is a number that is 7-2 to the Under over Kelce’s last nine games and has hit the Under at 61% on the season. I’m also getting this at plus money which is where the majority of the expected value is.
Detroit’s Sam LaPorta going for nine catches in the NFC title game is also feeding into the love for Kelce’s Overs and driving up the price. San Francisco’s 70% completion rate allowed to opposing TEs is one of the best marks in football. The Patriots were the best team at defending TEs and they finished with a 68% completion rate to the position on the season.
With a projected neutral game script, the Chiefs should stay with the run vs. a defense that can’t stop outside runs and gives the overall pass volume a slight downgrade.
With recency bias and public narrative driving up this number and price, it’s time to bring in the resistance and hit the Under on 6.5 receptions.
Prop: Under 6.5 receptions (+118 at FanDuel) 
Travis Kelce Super Bowl same-game parlay
Under 6.5 receptions
Over 70.5 receiving yards
Let me teach you a few things about multipliers. Most bettors will look at the correlated parlays between the Over receptions and yards and take what they get not knowing what the actual probability is. It's a tough thing to find out.
Kelce's Over 6.5 receptions (-144) + Over 70.5 yards (-110) is paying just -103 as an SGP and that's a wildly low multiplier. That means there's a bigger multiplier betting against two correlated markets.
The Under 6.5 receptions + Over 70.5 yards is paying a massive +1,109 whereas other books have this at +750. That's a big difference and with such a high reception total coupled with just 70.5 yards, this play has some legs.
First, THE BLITZ likes both of these plays to cash at better than 50% with a 6.48 projection for the receptions and 78 yards for the yardage total. Since the Chiefs' Week 10 bye, this exact +1,109 prop has hit four times in 10 games for a nice 281% ROI or +38.1 units.
It may take until the final drive to decide, but this multiplier is too big and because of the increase in the reception total, this is more live than the odds are indicating. The 40% hit rate over the last 10 games is a good indicator of the probability.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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