A.J. Brown Super Bowl 57 Prop Odds and Prediction: KC Defense Keeps Brown Under Receptions Total

We haven’t seen the best of the Philadelphia passing game of late but that hasn’t stopped Super Bowl player prop bettors from driving up A.J. Brown’s receiving markets.

Today, I’m looking specifically at his reception total and how the addition of some more mouths in the passing game and an underrated Kansas City pass defense are working against Brown having a high-volume performance in Super Bowl LVII. 

The Birds may be favored in our Super Bowl odds, but I break down why it may not all come easy for the Philly wideout - read more in my Super Bowl picks below.

A.J. Brown Super Bowl 57 prop pick and same-game parlay

• Under 5.5 receptions
• Under 5.5 receptions/Over 72.5 receiving yards/anytime TD

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

A.J. Brown Super Bowl 57 best bet

Thanks to some extremely positive game script in the postseason, the Philadelphia Eagles have thrown the ball just 49 times for a meager 35% pass rate. Of Jalen Hurts’ 31 postseason completions (seven in the second halves), seven have gone to A.J. Brown who has yet to top 30 yards.

The lack of work hasn’t fooled anyone, however, as early bettors have steamed his yardage total to a six-game high 72.5 yards after opening at 68.5 yards. His longest reception sits at 26.5 yards which is as high as that market ever gets, and his total receptions is sitting at 5.5.

It’s no surprise that the No. 1 receiver’s markets are inflating, but taking his Overs, especially closer to the game, likely means getting his worst number and I'm not sure a high-volume game is in store for the receiver.

The health of Kansas City corner L’Jarius Sneed is also important to consider here as the team’s best coverage back is dealing with a concussion he suffered in the AFC title game. He has plenty of time to recover, though.

This is also a KC secondary that grades positively at all four starting DB positions and has some size with three of the starting four reaching 6-feet or taller. Since Week 9, the Chiefs also rank eighth vs. the pass when looking at EPA/dropback and have been great against the pass in the postseason, ranking third in success rate.

Kansas City held Joe Burrow to his worst quarterback rating since Week 1 and Trevor Lawrence’s 74.4 QB rating was his third-lowest mark on the season. This is not a cake-walk of a matchup for Hurts and Brown and although I think it will be tough to contain Brown (who finished third in receptions of 30+ yards and ranked seventh in the league in deep targets per game), a six-catch game against a defense that has an extra week to prepare is less probable.

Brown’s Under 5.5 receptions is currently -125 at Betway while other sharper books are as taxed as -150. Brown is 14-5 to the Under at this number and is backed by an offense that is very comfortable running the ball right now.

Additionally, with Dallas Goedart soaking up 6-7 targets per game, DeVonta Smith needing work, and Kenneth Gainwell factoring in with the passing game, Hurts has plenty of options... that's not great for Brown’s volume.

Since Goedart returned in Week 16, Brown has recorded more than five catches once with a 51% catch rate compared to a 63% catch rate over the season’s first 15 weeks.

Prop: Under 5.5 receptions (-125)

A.J. Brown Super Bowl 57 SGP

A.J. Brown: Under 5.5 receptions

Over 72.5 receiving yards

Anytime touchdown scorer

+4,000 at bet365

Welcome to the world of negative correlation. We’re getting a decent multiplier by taking the Under receptions but Over yards and thanks to having a receiver who runs deep routes and can break long gains, this angle works better with Brown than other receivers.

In the 12 games Brown has recorded at least 67 yards, he’s done so with five or fewer catches seven times while tacking on a TD in four of those.

SGPs with 40/1 odds are very difficult to make on three bets on a single player, but this one has some legs.

Same-game parlay: +4,000 at bet365

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