Survivor pools were getting a little stagnant before the results of last week.
We didn’t see many upsets in October, but with Minnesota, Baltimore, Miami and the New York Jets going down as sizable favorites in Week 8, survivor pools shrunk ahead of the midway mark of the schedule.
Considering how nuts the 2024 campaign has been — favorites of -5.5 or higher are just 28-16 SU (64% win rate vs. 76% from 1985-2023) — making it to Week 9 is a badge of honor all on its own.
Now the fun begins.
With November knocking on the door, you’ve got to really start planning past this week’s survivor selection to make sure you don’t paint yourself into a corner later on. No one wants to be counting on a flakey team like the Jets, Cardinals, or Giants in the home stretch of the calendar.
Here is my NFL Week 9 survivor pick for Covers 10K Pro Football contest, as well as the safest bet on the board, according to the NFL odds.
(Teams used: Buffalo, L.A. Chargers, Seattle, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Cincinnati, Denver)
Best survivor pool bets for Week 9
Click on each pick to read the full analysis.
Covers Week 8 survivor pool pick
Minnesota Vikings
Opponent: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Moneyline odds: -245 (71% implied win probability)
I don’t expect this selection of the Minnesota Vikings to be as sweat free as some of my previous survivor picks. Not with the Colts involved.
Indianapolis somehow continues to play competitive football, despite box scores and metrics stating the contrary. The Colts have also yanked struggling QB Anthony Richardson and will go with veteran Joe Flacco, which has trimmed the spread from Indy +6 to as low as +5.
What waits for Flacco on Sunday Night Football is a well-rested and pissed-off Minnesota squad that has dropped two straight after starting the season 5-0. The Vikings are back home off a mini bye, having played last Thursday, and will unleash hell on the Colts’ aging QB.
Flacco sees his output tank when facing the blitz and Vikes’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores runs the most blitz-happy stop unit in the land, generating the highest amount of pressure per dropback. Overall, Minny sits Top 6 in the sexy advanced defensive stats heading into Week 9.
Using Minnesota this week allows me to take a sizable home favorite and one that doesn’t provide much future value down the road, with the Vikings playing a lot of away games in the coming weeks.
We can hang on to heavyweights like Kansas City, Baltimore, and Detroit for when we get deeper into the sked.
Safest Week 8 survivor pool pick
Baltimore Ravens
Opponent: vs. Denver Broncos
Moneyline odds: -500 (83% implied win probability)
The Baltimore Ravens ruined a lot of folks’ weeks last Sunday with a fourth-quarter collapse to the Browns that thinned the survivor herd in Week 8. This week, Baltimore is back to laying the lumber, giving as many as 10 points to the Broncos.
If this whacky-ass season isn’t evidence enough, don’t think for a second all those points will protect you.
The Ravens have a really bad habit of shitting the bed as big chalk, going just 9-4 SU as a favorite of a touchdown or more since 2021 (69% win rate). Every other fave of -7 or higher in that span has won at a 79% clip.
Regardless, Baltimore is a tempting take in Week 9 and is the “safest” pick, according to oddsmakers. That title has been a curse this season.
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