Texans vs Patriots Preseason Picks and Predictions: Quarterback Play Dominates on Thursday

The second game of the 2023 NFL preseason kicks off Thursday at Gillette Stadium as the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans as a 3.5-point home dog, with a total of 36.5.

NFL odds moved after bettors steamed the Texans once news that rookie quarterback CJ Stroud will start, as will plenty of the other Houston starters. However, Thursday should see plenty of competent QB play on both sides while the Pats could be showing off duel-threat signal-caller Malik Cunningham as well — making that Over look very good at its current low number

Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for the Texans vs. Patriots.

Texans vs Patriots odds

Texans vs Patriots predictions

Bettors have seen this total drop two points from 38.5 to 36.5, but with the potential of experienced quarterback play and some playmaking ability from a pair of rookies, the Over is looking like my favorite play in Thursday night's preseason action at Gillette Stadium.

Second-overall pick CJ Stroud will start and head coach DeMeco Ryans said the starters will also get some run. It's unsure how many series Stroud will see, but with him and Davis Mills sharing first-team snaps in practice, it could be an extended look as Ryans builds a QB competition in his first camp as a head coach.

Stroud seeing multiple series would be great for the Over 36.5 as he is the most athletic signal-caller on either side, but it's the experience on each team that has me predicting some later competent QB play which isn't always the case in the preseason.

The only other QB on the Texans' 90-man roster is 35-year-old Case Keenum, but this is still a QB who is 68-for-97 (70%) for 622 yards, 2 TDs, and 4 INTs over his last two years in the preseason over six games. Bettors can do a lot worse than Keenum closing out a game vs. the New England Patriots' threes and fours late in the game. 

Bill Belichick told reporters that his most inexperienced players will get the most snaps Thursday and didn't mention if Mac Jones will even see the field. Even if Jones sits, I still like this Over 36.5. 

The Pats have Bailey Zappe and Trace McSorley as the two QBs who will likely see all the early work. These are two signal callers with 10 NFL starts between them. Zappe went 45-for-71 (63%) for 462 yards, a score, and three picks in his first taste of preseason last year, while McSorley has six preseason starts to his name and has thrown for five TDs to five INTs. He also has nine NFL starts under his belt.

However, all preseason bettors know that things tend to come down to the last rotation, and if the Pats are giving Malik Cunningham the late work, he could move the ball himself.

Cunningham was a 5-year QB out of Lousvile who threw for 70 TDs while also rushing for 50 more. He is the highest-paid undrafted free agent in New England's history ($200,000 guaranteed) and got plenty of reps at QB this week. His rushing ability alone is enough to get me excited as fourth-quarter preseason football can be downright ugly in the passing game.  

Malik Cunningham is getting the most extensive work at QB he’s had all offseason

Had a nice throw on the run and looks dangerous in the open field

— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) August 7, 2023

With some very competent and experienced QB depth on both sides, decent playing conditions at Gillette Stadium, and the possibility of Cunningham's duel-threat skills being on display vs. the Houston threes and fours, I'm hitting the Over which I feel I'm getting at the lowest number. 

My best bet: Over 36.5 (-110 at bet365)

Texans vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

Preseason football is never easy to handicap. The variance and range of outcomes are wide, but focusing on three simple things is a great way to make a complicated game a little more concise and those three unsurprising things are: the length of starters, the QB rotation, and the coaching motivation factor. Let’s see how these things align for Thursday’s warm-up game. 

First of all, the line movement gives us a good indication of the starters and QB rotation. This game opened as HOU -1.5, moved across the zero to HOU +1.5, and then bolted to HOU -1.5 on Monday before some solid news moved the line across the 3 to HOU -3.5.

The big news was that second-overall pick C.J. Stroud will start for the Texans and that the starters will get some early run for the favorites. 

"Right now, as I see it, guys going out, hopefully getting a couple of series depending on how it goes," Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans said. "[Stroud] will go out there as well. Most of our guys will get work."

There is certainly some ambiguity about which key starters will start or how many series Stroud will get, but considering that Stround and Davis Mills have been sharing first-team reps at practice in a mini-QB battle, that could mean more than a series for Stroud and a decent run for Mills who is a competent QB to back in the preseason with 28 NFL starts to his name. 

Ryans is also a new head coach in his first NFL game as a bench boss and likely has a little more motivation than his counterpart in Bill Belichick, who has done well ATS in the preseason with a 32-24-4 ATS record over his career.

However, Belichick did tell reporters earlier this week that players with the least amount of experience will play the most snaps on Thursday. The head coach has also not named a starting QB and it’s unknown if Mac Jones will even see the field.

That will leave Bailey Zappe and Trace McSorley as the next signal callers on the depth chart, which might entice some bettors to back at +3.5 as the duo have 11 NFL starts combined over four NFL seasons, but Malik Cunningham is a dark horse to see the majority of the snaps under center.

NESN’s Dakota Randall said he bet money on Cunningham seeing some time under center. He is listed as a QB but has seen time at WR in camp. His usage at QB ramped up this week leading the analyst to speculate on his likely playing time. 

The multi-talented QB had a 63% completion rate, 8.8 yards per attempt, and a 151.8 QB rating in his time at Louisville. He also averaged 5.1 yards per carry and ran for 50 TDs over those five years, so he has some game on the ground. 

I’m off the side as I don’t want any part of covering 3.5 points in the first preseason game and it’s tough to trust Bill when he says the most inexperienced guys will see the most snaps. 

Gillette Stadium will be dry with 8-mph winds and solid mid-70s temperatures making it a fairly neutral playing environment for Thursday. 

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