Titans vs Texans Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 17: Stroud Shines Bright in Return

The Houston Texans’ playoff hopes are on the line as they face the Tennessee Titans on Sunday, but their fate is still in their own hands and they’ll be boosted by C.J. Stroud’s return.

The Texans managed to split the two games while Stroud was in concussion protocol, but they were second-best last weekend in a 36-22 loss to the surging Browns. Even so, Houston is in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC South heading into Week 17.

Tennessee has had its own quarterback injury woes, but Will Levis is expected to be back under center for a Titans team that’s still playing hard despite a 5-10 record. The visitors’ last three losses have all come by a 3-point margin, including a 20-17 setback last weekend against the Seahawks. 

Read on for my free Titans vs. Texans NFL picks for this December 31 matchup, with key playoff implications at stake.

Titans vs Texans odds

Titans vs Texans predictions

This divisional slugfest isn’t the easiest game for CJ Stroud to ease his way back into the action, but his return should immediately spice up the offense after the Houston Texans trudged along with Case Keenum and Davis Mills at the controls.

With the Texans fighting for a postseason spot, and with Stroud eyeing the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, I’m expecting the Houston QB to be his usual aggressive self on Sunday.

Even without the injured Tank Dell as a big-play threat, the hosts have talented targets like Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, and Noah Brown who are all capable of creating separation.

Despite the tight 19-16 scoreline when these teams met two weeks ago, this feels like a matchup that Stroud can dominate. The Tennessee Titans are in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed per game (225.7) and Keenum threw for 229 yards against Tennessee in Week 15.

Stroud’s mobility and willingness to air it out give this Houston offense added dimensions. He went past this yardage number in the last five games he completed before his concussion against the Jets, and he also hit the 300-yard mark in four of those contests.

Plus, against a Titans defense that limited the Seahawks to just 58 rushing yards in Week 16, it’s reasonable to expect Houston to tilt its game plan towards its passing attack.

In the most important contest of his pro career, I’m counting on Stroud to keep the Texans in contention with another stellar performance.

My best bet: CJ Stroud Over 257.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Titans vs Texans same-game parlay

CJ Stroud Over 257.5 passing yards

Texans team total Over 23.5

Derrick Henry anytime TD

+375 at bet365

As well as Stroud has played in his rookie season, the Houston offense hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. In fact, you have to go back to November 12 for the last time the Texans produced more than 22 points.

However, I’m zagging on that and picking the hosts to score 24+ points on Sunday. Some of that stems from Houston’s 5-3 record at home, while I also like the Texans’ defense to rattle Levis on his return from an ankle injury and create good field position for Stroud.

Though the Texans managed to stifle Derrick Henry two weeks ago, holding him to just nine rushing yards on 16 carries, that was King Henry’s only dud game over the past month.

Henry has found the end zone seven times in his past five outings, and I’m picking him to make amends for the sluggish Week 15 effort that left the 29-year-old weighing up his future with the Titans. I’ll gladly add these odds for an anytime TD.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Titans vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis

The Texans can take a big step towards the playoffs here, as well as pushing their case for an unlikely AFC South title in DeMeco Ryans’ first season in charge. In front of what should be an electric home crowd, the hosts are 4-point favorites.

That line makes sense with Stroud back under center for Houston, but there’s very little to choose between these teams, even if the standings suggest otherwise. 

The Texans have won the past two meetings, but the last 10 matchups have been split 5-5. If you’re looking for another reason to lay the points with Houston, it helps that the Titans are 3-6-1 ATS in their last 10 outings.

You’ll be hard-pressed to find trends that point to a shootout at NRG Stadium this weekend. The Under is 6-4 for both teams in their past 10 contests, and the defenses have had the upper hand when these AFC South rivals go head-to-head.

Each of the past three matchups has finished with 35 points or fewer. Even after picking Houston to score at least 24 points, Sunday’s line of 44 points feels a little high, particularly if Levis is dealing with a collapsing pocket.

Titans vs Texans betting trend to know

The Titans’ tendency to serve up tight, low-scoring games dates back beyond this season. Tennessee has only gone Over the total in seven of its last 20 games. Find more NFL betting trends for Titans vs. Texans.

Titans vs Texans game info

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