NFL Anytime Touchdown Props for Week 3: Lamar Jackson, Brenton Strange & Zamir White

TD Prop bet #1: Lamar Jackson

Best odds: +200 at Caesars

The reigning MVP has begun the season 0-2 SU, and although Lamar Jackson has 167 yards on the ground, those have been scoreless yards through two weeks.

Things could change in Week 3 on the road vs. the Cowboys, who have been very kind to touchdown scorers to open the season. No team has allowed more rushing TDs than the Boys, who have given up five scores — including four to the Saints last week.

The Saints scored in four of their five trips inside the 20 vs. Dallas last week, while the Browns and that irregular offense were a perfect 2-for-2 in the RZ in Week 1. Derrick Henry is the first pick, but I'm not dropping -150 to -170 on him to score this Sunday. 

That's where Jackson and his +200 price tag enter. This is a big price and is as short as +160. For comparison, Josh Allen is being priced as short as -135. I think quarterbacks with Jackson's skillset should not be priced higher than +150. I mean, Anthony Richardson is priced between -105 and +120.  

The Ravens' offense can move the ball vs. Dallas after posting the No. 3 offensive success rate, which includes a game vs. an elite K.C. defense. If things get tight, look for the reigning MVP to take the game — and the Ravens' winless record — into his own hands. This should be an elite effort from Jackson who is already leading all QBs in total yards and rushing yards to begin the year. 

TD Prop bet #2: Brenton Strange

Best odds: +500 at bet365

Let's try to get ahead of this, as the chances of this shortening up are pretty high. Jacksonville tight end Evan Engram was ruled out in Week 2 during warmups after suffering a hamstring injury, and HC Doug Pederson said Engram is "a little bit further away" from returning. 

In his place is Brenton Strange, who ran 22 routes on 30 dropbacks, was second on the team in targets (six) and second on the team in yards (65).

He also saw a red zone target late in the fourth in a critical part of the game on third down, although he didn't haul it in. Strange is the man if Engram is out, and +500 for a possible starting TE is a great price. It's only going to get shorter, and you could cash out if Engram suits up, but right now, the needle is pointing to Strange. 

#Jaguars coach Doug Pederson says TE Evan Engram, who injured his hamstring in pre-game warmups on Sunday "is a little bit further away." Sounds like at least very much up in the air for MNF.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) September 19, 2024

The Bills' defense has surprised through two weeks but is still missing key coverage pieces in linebacker Matt Milano and starting corner Taron Johnson.

The safeties will be protecting the deep shots from rookie Brian Thomas, Gabe Davis, and Christian Kirk, as all three receivers rank in the Top 16 in aDOT. That should give lots of room to Strange in the middle and underneath. It's a long shot, but worth half a unit at +500 for what could close at +250ish if Engram sits. 

TD Prop bet #3: Zamir White

Best odds: +125 at bet365

This is my square TD of the week, and +125 for a back who could get 20+ touches vs. the Panthers is a deal in my books. Carolina is giving up a generous 166.5 rushing yards per game which is the second most in football. JK Dobbins went for 131 rushing yards and a score last week, while both Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams rushed for a TD vs. the Panthers in Week 1.

Antonio Pierce also came out after their Week 2 win over the Ravens and beat the drum Zamir White needs to get the ball 20 or more times this week, and that's the goal for Week 3. It was Alex Mattison who got the RZ TD last week, but it's still White's starting role, and being a 5.5-point favorite should only help White get going.

#Raiders HC Antonio Pierce on Zamir White:

“I’m gonna keep pumping him up. Our goal is to get 20+ touches with him. That was the goal this week, didn’t happen. That’s gonna be the goal this week and every week while he’s the starting running back and I’m here.”

Pierce has a 90%… pic.twitter.com/xLEbPRMs4a

— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 16, 2024

White played 39 snaps in Week 2, but the Raiders also passed the ball 38 times in a game they were chasing for the majority of it. If Pierce can get his way and this game scripts remains neutral, White should have a big role indoors for the Raiders' home opener vs. a defense without its best defensive lineman and two more starters on the D-line questionable.