The Minnesota Vikings head to the Sunshine State to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.
Jacksonville is reeling at 2-7, and with franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence likely sidelined by a shoulder injury, my Vikings vs Jaguars predictions are expecting another ugly loss for the Jags. Here are my best free NFL picks for this November 10 clash.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, with the game airing on CBS.
Vikings vs Jaguars prediction
My best bet
Vikings -7 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Jacksonville Jaguars are in the midst of an ugly season and things could get uglier this week with Trevor Lawrence likely out and Mac Jones taking over at quarterback. The drop-off from Lawrence to Jones might not be as steep as many think, but Jones isn't in a good spot to succeed.
The Jags No. 2 wide receiver Christian Kirk suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8 and their other two starting receivers and top three running backs are dinged up as well. The offensive line could also struggle after trading away left tackle Cam Robinson to the Minnesota Vikings, especially with left guard Ezra Cleveland sidelined by an ankle injury.
A backup QB behind a shaky line is a recipe for disaster against a Vikings stop unit that leads the NFL in pressure rate and is second in defensive EPA.
Meanwhile, the Jaguars are last in the league in defensive EPA and allow the highest opponent passer rating (113.4). They'll get picked apart by a Vikes attack spearheaded by Sam Darnold (fourth in the league with a passer rating of 107.8) and superstar receiver Justin Jefferson.
While it isn't easy to lay seven points with a visiting team, Minnesota has looked like a Super Bowl contender and there are still -6.5 lines available.
Vikings vs Jaguars same-game parlay
Vikings -6.5
Mac Jones Over 210.5 passing yards
Sam Darnold Under 14.5 rushing yards
The Vikes are second in the league in defensive dropback EPA but they allow the fifth-most passing yards per game (250). Jones might not be efficient in his first start with Jacksonville, but he should be able to eclipse his low passing yards total, especially if the Jags play with a negative game script.
Darnold has been an efficient passer but he isn't the most mobile QB and he generally doesn't run unless the pocket breaks down. The Jags are 29th in the league in pressure rate and dead-last in pass rush win rate, so Darnold won't be forced into scrambling situations here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Vikings vs Jaguars odds
Vikings vs Jaguars live odds
Vikings vs Jaguars opening odds
- Spread: Minnesota -4.5 | Jacksonville +4.5
- Moneyline: Minnesota -230 | Jacksonville +190
- Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Vikings vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis
- Minnesota opened at -4.5 but ticked up to -7 with the news that Lawrence will likely be out. The total has come down from 46.5 to 43.5.
- The Vikings are 6-2 straight up and against the spread and are coming off a 21-13 win against the Colts last week.
- The Jags have gone just 2-7 SU but they are 5-4 ATS and have covered in their last three games.
- Jones was the Offensive ROTY runner-up in 2021 but struggled last year, averaging 192.7 passing yards per game with 12 interceptions in 11 starts.
Vikings vs Jaguars betting trend to know
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS on the first quarter spread this year, while Jacksonville has an average scoring margin of -3.1 ppg in the first quarter. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Jaguars.
Vikings vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 11-10, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Vikings vs Jaguars latest injuries
Vikings vs Jaguars weather
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