Vikings vs Jaguars Predictions and Picks for Week 10: Lopsided Matchup Looms for Jacksonville

With Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson headling a Minnesota squad that is loaded on both sides of the ball, Jacksonville will be in for another rough outing.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
Nov 8, 2024 • 15:07 ET • 4 min read

NFL

Match starts: 40 hrs
JAC
32 %
MIN
68 %
EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
Minnesota -6.5 (-115) Minnesota -6.5 (-115)
Read Analysis
Sam Darnold Justin Jefferson Minnesota Vikings NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Sam Darnold and Justin Jefferson celebrating following a touchdown.

The Minnesota Vikings head to the Sunshine State to face the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon.

Jacksonville is reeling at 2-7, and with franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence likely sidelined by a shoulder injury, my Vikings vs Jaguars predictions are expecting another ugly loss for the Jags. Here are my best free NFL picks for this Week 10 clash on November 10.

Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, with the game airing on CBS. 

Vikings vs Jaguars prediction

My best bet
Vikings -7 (-105 at BetMGM)

My analysis

The Jacksonville Jaguars are in the midst of an ugly season and things could get uglier this week with Trevor Lawrence likely out and Mac Jones taking over at quarterback. The drop-off from Lawrence to Jones might not be as steep as many think, but Jones isn't in a good spot to succeed. 

The Jags No. 2 wide receiver Christian Kirk suffered a season-ending injury in Week 8 and their other two starting receivers and top three running backs are dinged up as well. The offensive line could also struggle after trading away left tackle Cam Robinson to the Minnesota Vikings, especially with left guard Ezra Cleveland sidelined by an ankle injury.

A backup QB behind a shaky line is a recipe for disaster against a Vikings stop unit that leads the NFL in pressure rate and is second in defensive EPA. 

Meanwhile, the Jaguars are last in the league in defensive EPA and allow the highest opponent passer rating (113.4). They'll get picked apart by a Vikes attack spearheaded by Sam Darnold (fourth in the league with a passer rating of 107.8) and superstar receiver Justin Jefferson.

While it isn't easy to lay seven points with a visiting team, Minnesota has looked like a formidable Super Bowl contender in 2024.

Vikings vs Jaguars same-game parlay

Vikings -6.5

Mac Jones Over 210.5 passing yards

Sam Darnold Under 14.5 rushing yards

The Vikes are second in the league in defensive dropback EPA but they allow the fifth-most passing yards per game (250). Jones might not be efficient in his first start with Jacksonville, but he should be able to eclipse his low passing yards total, especially if the Jags play with a negative game script.

Darnold has been an efficient passer but he isn't the most mobile QB and he generally doesn't run unless the pocket breaks down. The Jags are 29th in the league in pressure rate and dead-last in pass rush win rate, so Darnold won't be forced into scrambling situations here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Vikings vs Jaguars odds

Vikings vs Jaguars live odds

Vikings vs Jaguars opening odds

  • Spread: Minnesota -4.5 | Jacksonville +4.5
  • Moneyline: Minnesota -230 | Jacksonville +190
  • Over/Under: Over 46.5 | Under 46.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Vikings vs Jaguars spread and Over/Under analysis

  • Minnesota opened at -4.5 but ticked up to -7 with the news that Lawrence will likely be out. The total has come down from 46.5 to 43.5.
  • The Vikings are 6-2 straight up and against the spread and are coming off a 21-13 win against the Colts last week.
  • The Jags have gone just 2-7 SU but they are 5-4 ATS and have covered in their last three games.
  • Jones was the Offensive ROTY runner-up in 2021 but struggled last year, averaging 192.7 passing yards per game with 12 interceptions in 11 starts.

Vikings vs Jaguars betting trend to know

Minnesota is 7-1 ATS on the first quarter spread this year, while Jacksonville has an average scoring margin of -3.1 ppg in the first quarter. Find more NFL betting trends for Vikings vs. Jaguars.

Vikings vs Jaguars game info

Location: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL
Date: Sunday, 11-10, 2024
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: FOX

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Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez.

You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports.

Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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