Vikings vs Rams Early Picks, Predictions & Odds for TNF Week 8

NFL Week 8 betting begins out West when the Los Angeles Rams welcome the Minnesota Vikings to SoFi Stadium for Thursday Night Football.

Minnesota has a short week to get right after suffering its first loss of the season while L.A. is riding high on the heels of its second win of the year. Too bad its backers can’t feel the same, suffering through a 1-5 ATS record.

I run down the opening spread and Over/Under total for this mid-week matchup and give my early leans and NFL picks for Vikings at Rams on October 24.

Vikings vs Rams predictions

Early spread lean
Rams +3 (-102 at FanDuel)

My analysis

How will the Minnesota Vikings react to a disappointing loss in Week 7? 

Minnesota traded blows with the rival Detroit Lions in a crucial NFC North contest this past Sunday, blowing an early 10-0 lead before storming back in the fourth quarter, only to lose on a last-minute field goal.

Kevin Stefanski not only has to get his team right during the short week, but the Vikes are traveling to Los Angeles for just their second road game since September 15. A letdown looms considering this schedule squeeze.

The Los Angeles Rams bullied a broken Las Vegas Raiders squad last weekend but still couldn’t cover the spread, dropping to 1-5 ATS on the season. The Rams come into Week 8 at the healthiest they've been in a long time, most notably getting WR Cooper Kupp back in the offense.

Los Angeles will need all that extra firepower if the defense can’t slow down the Vikings’ high-octane attack. The Rams’ stop unit has stiffened in recent weeks, giving up only 4.8 yards per play over the last three games — rating out third in EPA allowed per play since Week 5 after sitting 31st in that advanced metric in the first four weeks.

This spread sits at Minnesota -3 at most shops but we’re seeing the vig on the key number climb and this line could close Vikings -3.5 by Thursday. I’m not really high on taking Minnesota -3 and far less interested once this number adds a half-point hook. I’d lean Rams later in the week if we see +3.5.

Early Over/Under lean
Under 48.5 (-120 at FanDuel)

My analysis

As mentioned, Los Angeles’ defense has pulled a 180 the past few weeks. The Rams sit third in EPA allowed per play since Week 5 and have trimmed their opponents’ success rate per play from 50.8% in the opening four weeks to just 37.5% the past three outings.

Drastic shifts in the secondary have sparked this turnaround, with Los Angeles holding its last three foes to less than 57% completions and the third lowest EPA allowed per dropback since Week 5. The Rams have also created chaos in terms of pressure and takeaways, recording four interceptions and a fumble recovery in that span.

Minnesota’s defense is not to be outdone. While the Vikings did find themselves in a shootout with the Lions in Week 7, Brian Flores’ aggressive schemes have been disruptive all season.

The Vikings are No. 1 in EPA allowed per play for the entire season, No. 2 in success rate allowed, and tops in Defensive DVOA at FTN. Minnesota utilizes a blitz-heavy attack generating the highest pressure rate per dropback and has collected 24 sacks and 30 QB knockdowns.

The Rams have a less-than-mobile QB in the aging Matthew Stafford, who has faced the third most pressure in the NFL. Stafford has been hit 25 times, suffered 17 sacks, and plays behind an offensive line rated in the lower third of the league in pass block win rate at ESPN.

Considering L.A.’s improvements at jamming up the pass (and its piss-poor rushing defense) and the Vikings coming for Stafford’s head, we could see both offenses take the ground on Thursday night. That could mean shorter gains with the clock running, which is always good for those holding Under tickets.

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