There’s no shortage of storylines or star power in the Week 8 opener and you can spice up this mid-week matchup with a well-calculated Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams Rams same-game parlay.
I take my best NFL picks for Thursday Night Football and build out an SGP for October 24. Make sure to also check out my full Vikings vs. Rams predictions before tonight's kickoff!
Vikings vs Rams SGP for Week 8
Matthew Stafford 225+ passing yards
Cooper Kupp anytime touchdown
Colby Parkinson 3+ receptions
Considering the Los Angeles Rams are short underdogs at home, the game script says Los Angeles will be playing from behind on Thursday night.
That leads us toward the passing props, especially considering how strong the Minnesota Vikings’ run-stop unit is and how shaky the pass defense has looked over the previous three outings. Minnesota has allowed the third most yards through the air in the NFL over its last three games.
The first stop on our TNF SGP is L.A. quarterback Matthew Stafford. The 36-year-old has had a tough time to start 2024, mostly due to injuries to the key positions around him. Luckily for the veteran gunslinger, he'll have top WR Cooper Kupp back in action after missing that reliable option since Week 2.
Stafford’s player models for tonight all come in well above 225 passing yards, with some projecting as high as 262 yards against the Vikings. The QB is averaging 232 yards per game to start 2024 and will eclipse 30 attempts after sitting below that bar in four of his six starts.
Speaking of passes, we’ll see Stafford connect with Kupp in the end zone in SoFi Stadium tonight. Kupp is one of the best receivers in the NFL versus zone coverage and Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy schemes run one of the highest rates of zone.
McVay likes to move Kupp around at the line, with plenty of snaps in the slot. That’s been the kryptonite of this Vikes’ pass defense, getting torched by slot WRs so far (second most fantasy points allowed). Kupp is always Stafford’s first look in the red zone and faces a Vikings RZ defense that has given up touchdowns on 78% of its opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line over the last three contests.
Our final leg of the same game parlay has Los Angeles TE Colby Parkinson tying a bow on this accumulator with three or more receptions on Thursday.
Parkinson has played a big role in the offense with Kupp and Puka Nacua out of order, and even with Kupp back, the TE will be featured with budding rookie WR Jordan Whittington now out for Week 8.
Stafford will turn to his tight end as a pressure release when Minnesota brings the heat. And it will, with the Vikings boasting the highest pressure rate per dropback in the NFL. In terms of targets, Parkinson's best production has come against other potent pass rushes like San Francisco, Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit.
Parkinson has caught three or more passes in four of six games this season and sits tied for the team lead in targets (34). His player forecasts range from 2.9 to 3.7 receptions, with the bulk of the projections north of three catches.
Not intended for use in MA.
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