Week 12 NFL Teaser: Chiefs Worth a Look Against Raiders

Ladies and gentlemen, it's teaser time!

I got back into the winner's circle last weekend in a very unexpected way as the Lions were able to come back and beat the Bears despite being down by 12 very late into the game. As a result, no more complaining about bad beats... for at least this week anyway.

Week 12's Sunday and Monday slate of games is challenging for us NFL odds bettors for two reasons. First of all, we usually have more games to make our NFL picks & predictions from, but between the Thanksgiving and the Black Friday games, our options are cut down. And second, we only have one favorite (the Chiefs) in that coveted 6.5-to-8.5-point range that we can tease down inside of a field goal.

Either way, I think I've got a great pairing for the Week 12 odds teaser, along with a few other options to consider if you don't like my top NFL picks. Let's go!

Week 12 NFL teaser picks

6-point teaser

• Browns (+7.5)
• Chiefs (-2.5)

Picks made on November 24 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

Week 12 Teaser

Browns (+1.5 to +7.5) vs Broncos

Yes, the Broncos have improved quite a bit in recent weeks, but they’re also getting a lot of help, as they’ve won the turnover battle 13-to-2 in those games, which is absolutely absurd. Despite the enormous turnover edge in these games, three of the wins came by two points or less and they only have one win by more than eight points this season.

I think pulling away against a Cleveland defense that’s allowed 10 points or less in four separate games this season will be unlikely. Like the Broncos, the Browns tend to play in a lot of tight games and they only have one loss by more than four points this season. Denver is dead-last in yards allowed per play this season which could open the door for Dorian Thompson-Robinson to have the best game of his young career. 

I think Denver will have a difficult time moving the football and extending drives in this game. Cleveland is second in yards per play allowed and first in opponent third-down conversion percentage at a ridiculous 25.40%. The Broncos have also had some severe letdown performances at home which include losses to the Jets and Commanders.

Chiefs (-8.5 to -2.5) vs Raiders

Kansas City is 17-3 SU after a loss since Patrick Mahomes became the starter. That's enough to convince me to tease them down inside of a field goal, but I'm obligated to provide 150 to 200 words in this section, so here's some additional ammo:

The Raiders offense against the Chiefs defense is a major mismatch that favors the Chiefs. KC is tied for third in yards per play allowed, while the Raiders offense is 27th in yards per play while also being awful on third down and in the red zone.

This appears to be the top 'get right' opponent for the Chiefs as well, as they have a long history of destroying the Raiders. They've gone 15-2 against the Raiders since 2014 and have beaten them by double-digits six times with Mahomes at quarterback.

Learn more about teaser betting with Covers’ teaser betting guide.

Best Week 12 teaser spots

• Browns (+1.5 to +7.5)
• Chiefs (-8.5 to -2.5)
• Texans vs. Jaguars (+1.5 to +7.5)
• Bills vs. Eagles (+3 to +9)
• Giants vs. Patriots (+3.5 to +9.5)

At the very least, I expect the Texans to hang around in this one, and won’t be surprised if they win outright… just like they did back in Week 3 when they destroyed the Jaguars by 20 in Jacksonville. Somewhat shockingly, Houston has won 10 of the last 11 games in this matchup, while another trend has seen the Jaguars go a brutal 3-14 in their last 17 divisional road games, so the trends heavily align with the Texans. Houston also has just two losses since Week 2 with each of them coming by two points. Their defense really tightens up in the fourth quarter at home where they’ve allowed an average of just 2.8 points in five games, so if they do fall behind, there’s serious potential for a backdoor cover.

The Bills are an up-and-down roller coaster type of team, but they don’t get blown out. Of their five losses on the season, they still haven’t lost by more than six. This is a carryover from last season where they didn’t lose a game by more than three, while in 2021, their biggest loss came by seven points. As long as Josh Allen can focus on limiting turnovers, I expect them to keep pace with the Eagles, who only have two double-digit wins on the season. 

Really, the New England Patriots are favored in a road game? I get it that it’s coming against Tommy DeVito and the Giants, but did the Patriots’ bye week make people forget how awful they’ve been? The Giants are the team in this matchup that has momentum as they’re coming off their best win of the season — a 31-19 victory in Washington — while the Patriots are coming off a pathetic 10-6 to the Colts where Mac Jones got bench for the final drive of the game. With a rock-bottom total of 33.5, a double-digit win by the offensively challenged Patriots is highly unlikely. 

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