NFL Week 4 Total Bets: Cincy's Offense Posts Big Number

Over/Under bet #1: Bengals-Panthers Over 47 (-110 at bet365)

This total opened at 45.5 and was quickly bet up to 48 before buyback on the Under brought it back to 47. At that number, I love the Over since these offenses are trending upward, and both defenses are near the bottom of the league in most metrics. 

Andy Dalton showed that Bryce Young's problems couldn't be blamed on his supporting cast by replacing him last week and leading the Carolina Panthers to a 36-22 win against the Raiders. Dave Canales' offense finally found its footing, with Dalton throwing for 319 yards and three scores while Chuba Hubbard rushed for 114 yards and added another 55 through the air.

The Panthers will be without wide receiver Adam Thielen for a while, but Diontae Johnson hauled in eight of 14 targets for 122 yards last week, and Xavier Legette is talented enough to step into the No. 2 role. Expect another strong performance from the Red Rifle against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks 29th in dropback EPA and 31st in defensive rush EPA.

Cincinnati's offense struggled at the start of the year but that shouldn't have been surprising since All-Pro wideout Ja'Marr Chase had missed all of training camp and No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins was injured. Chase has shaken off the rust, Higgins is now healthy, and Andrei Iosivas has emerged as a solid No. 3 WR which led to the Bengals rolling up 436 yards and 33 points last week.

Cincinnati's offensive line has often struggled to protect Joe Burrow but the Panthers are dead-last in the league in pressure rate and clearly miss Brian Burns after trading him away. With time to operate in the pocket, Burrow will pick apart a Panthers squad that's 28th in defensive EPA and 26th in defensive success rate. 

Over/Under bet #2: Steelers-Colts Under 40 (-110 at SportsInteraction)

The Under easily cashed in the Pittsburgh Steelers' last two games despite the total sitting at just 36.5 and 36. We're seeing a more respectable total of 40 this week, but I'm not sure it's justified. 

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson has completed just 49.3% of his passes for 583 yards with six picks through three games. Richardson generates plenty of big plays, but the down-to-down efficiency hasn't been there, with Indy ranking 30th in dropback success rate. 

In addition, Pro Bowl center Ryan Kelly and right tackle Braden Smith are listed as questionable, which is bad news against a Pittsburgh stop unit that leads the NFL in pass rush grade, according to PFF. The Steelers also lead the league in defensive EPA and have been excellent against both the run and the pass, holding opponents to just 8.7 points per game

The Colts also have a few key injuries on defense, but they're still a respectable 15th in the league in defensive EPA. They should do enough to slow down the Steelers, who are 28th in offensive success rate and have yet to score more than 20 points in a game this year. The Steelers are third in the league in rushing rate (57.1%), and with a conservative offense led by Justin Fields, I doubt they'll be able to do enough to drag this contest Over the total.

Over/Under bet #3: Seahawks-Lions Over 46 (-112 at DraftKings)

The Detroit Lions are 3-0 to the Under but that's after three straight weeks of having the highest total across the league with an O/U of 53.5 in Week 1 followed by 51.5 in each of the past two weeks. Their total is sitting at a significantly lower 46.5 this week, which is the second-lowest O/U we've seen at Ford Field since the start of the 2022 season.

A big reason why we're getting a lower total this week (besides their own streak of lower-scoring games) is the defensive play of the Seattle Seahawks, who are holding foes to an incredible 132.3 passing yards per game and 14.3 ppg. That said, the Seahawks played against Bo Nix in his NFL debut in their season opener before facing Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson the past two weeks.

They're going to have a much tougher time containing a Lions offense with Jared Goff at QB, multiple weapons, a great offensive line, and one of the best play-callers in the business. Don't forget that in Seattle's only road game this year, they allowed a one-dimensional Patriots offense to rush for 185 yards, and Detroit is fourth in the NFL at 163.0 rushing yards per game.

That said, Detroit's subpar secondary is going to struggle against D.K. Metcalf and a talented trio of Seahawks receivers. When these teams faced off last September at Ford Field with almost identical lineups, they combined for 811 yards and 68 points. I expect another shootout here.