Canada vs Czechia WJC Final Picks and Predictions: O(ver) Canada

Coming off a pair of dramatic wins in the semifinals, Canada and Czechia will meet in the IIHF U20 gold medal game tonight in Halifax as the heavily favored Canadians (-420) will look to avenge their only loss of the tournament back in the Boxing Day opener.

With Czechia possibly emptying the tank yesterday vs. the Swedes and the Canucks getting elite goaltending, a multi-goal Canada victory is what I'm predicting, and I'm looking at the team total market instead of the puck line.

Here are my free WJC picks for Czechia vs. Canada.

Canada vs Czechia odds

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of January 5, 2023.

Canada vs Czechia picks and predictions

Not many books are offering alternative Puck Lines so it’s time to get creative with the available markets. 

I love the Czechia team total Under 2.5 at -140. Tonight’s underdogs managed zero offense yesterday vs. Sweden (a team they had already played and didn’t make any great offensive adjustments to) and scored their only goal in regulation with 40 seconds left and the goalie pulled.

Czechia already beat Canada in the opener, but the Canadians were humbled and also had to kill a five-minute major penalty that Czechia scored twice on.

Additionally, Canadian rockstar and netminder Thomas Milic was not in net for that game but was the MVP yesterday vs. the Americans, making 43 saves. Milic is coming off two solid games and has dealt with a ton of pressure, which should help him settle his nerves for today.

Speaking of nerves, this is the first time Czechia has reached the gold medal game since 2001, and coming off a 2-1 overtime win vs. Sweden yesterday where it might have emptied the tank, tonight is a tough spot vs. Canada, who’s looking to make up for that 5-2 loss in the opener. 

On top of the Under 2.5 bet, I’m doubling down and hitting Canada Over 4.5 at plus money. The offense got some contributions from people not named Connor Bedard last night, and this team has already proven that it doesn’t need secondary scoring to score five or more. If the Shane Wright line can find the scoresheet, Canada could easily put up five without the help of an empty-net goal.

Staying with empty netters, even if Canada is leading 4-1 late in this game, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Czechia pull the goalie. It’s an untraditional strategy in hockey, but one we’re starting to see more often, and one that is more probable in games with so much on the line.

Czechia goalie Tomas Suchanek might have a 1.30 GAA and a .938 save percentage, but he’s benefited greatly from a cupcake schedule of poor offenses and will more than likely see at least 60 shot attempts. In the tournament, Canada is averaging 45.8 shots per game, while Bedard has 23 points over six games. 

I’m taking Czechia Under 2.5 and Canada Over 4.5, and hoping I can double dip instead of the Canada -2.5 puck line that isn’t as available. 

My best bet: Canada team total Over 4.5 (+108 at FanDuel), Czechia team total Under 2.5 (-140 at FanDuel)

Canada vs Czechia moneyline analysis

Things were looking grim for the Canadians last night vs. the Americans as the USA opened up with an early 2-0 lead that quieted Scotiabank Center. However, goalie Thomas Milic (43 saves) would shut the door the rest of the way while the host’s offense ripped off the next six goals including an empty-netter. 

Connor Bedard (nine goals and 23 points) went into that game contributing to 63% of the Canuck’s goals and although he had “just” a goal and an assist, his line had four of the team’s six goals. The secondary scoring (looking at you, Shane Wright) hasn’t been prevalent, but after last night’s performance that followed the overtime game in the quarter-finals, Canada can’t be stopped. Although the moneyline and -1.5 Puck Line are steep, the momentum Canada is bringing tonight is massive and I see it as 80% probable to win this game.

Canada losing to Czechia in the opening game of the group stage also helps the favorites. Since that loss, Canada is 5-0 with a plus-29 goal differential. Meanwhile, Czechia has seen two of their games (both to Sweden) go to extra time since the 5-2 win over Canada, which was made possible with two power-play goals on a 5-minute major penalty. 

Czechia was also 40 seconds away from playing for the bronze medal and needed a game-tying goal from David Jiricek in the final minute yesterday. 

Now that Milic is playing with confidence after two massive wins that he was responsible for, the team is getting some non-Bedard scoring, and being able to make adjustments vs. a team that beat and humbled them — there’s a lot to like tonight about Canada.

Suchanek has a 1.30 GAA and a .938 save percentage, but that has come against very weak offensive opponents and a Canada team that came out flat in its first game.

I think Canada is 80% probable to win this game, but I also think there are better markets to find value in than the moneyline (-420) or -1.5 puck line (-148).

Canada vs Czechia Over/Under analysis

Canada will see another total of 7 tonight and needed an empty-net goal last night to hit the over despite six total goals being scored in the first 32 minutes of the game. The game slowed down late vs. the US, and considering it was the third game on that ice surface that day, it makes a lot of sense.

Today will see just two games played at Scotiabank Center, which should keep the ice in better condition for the gold medal game. However, tonight's finals will not boast the same offense that the Canada vs. USA game did last night. Czechia has a ton of experience (18 returning players from last year) and high-pick talent, but the underdogs are not nearly as talented as the US roster was. 

It’s hard to pump the Canadian team total Over 4.5 and Under 7, but Czechia’s team total of 2.5 is paying -140 to the Under. This game likely won’t see heavy two-way scoring and a 5-2 Canada win is very probable. 

However, the Under 7 is more of a lean and won’t be seeing any of my money as late empty-net goals are very probable and we could even see Czechia pull its goalie down even three goals. There’s always a bigger risk playing Unders in elimination games because of it, and adding in some better ice conditions, hitting the individual team totals is a better spot for bettors tonight. 

Canada vs USA betting trend to know

Canada is 21-2 SU in the last 23 meetings dating back to 1993. Find more World Juniors betting trends for Canada vs. Czechia.

Canada vs Czechia game info

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