The sky is falling in Toronto after last night’s backbreaking loss as a heavy road favorite in Montreal. Now the sloppy-looking Maple Leafs return home to take on the Washington Capitals, who also dropped their opener last night.
Both teams should be starting their backups but that doesn’t necessarily mean goals. However, getting a second-line winger at +680 to score in a game with a high total is tough to ignore.
Find out in my free NHL picks and predictions for Capitals vs. Maple Leafs.
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Capitals vs Maple Leafs best odds
Capitals vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
The Leafs’ second line of Denis Malgin, William Nylander, and John Tavares was the best of the four last night for Toronto. The new combination finished with a 70% xGoal% and Malgin had one of the team’s three goals, amazingly leading all Toronto skaters with 0.658 xGoals. He added two shots on goal, tied for the most offensive-zone shifts at even strength, and complements the play of both Tavares and Nylander.
Malgin could be the Michael Bunting of the second line and with Toronto likely being less “creative” tonight, Malgin could bang in another tally in the paint.
Malgin’s goal market wasn’t widely available last night as it was his first game, but some books had closing odds of +225. Now, a night after scoring, he is available at +680!
This is a play based on price as the +680 odds indicate an implied probability of 12.8% while the other books at +245 are implying a 30% probability.
It’s not often we can get a second-line winger who also plays on the second unit of the power play at anything over +350 to score. To put it in perspective, DraftKings has two of the Leafs’ fourth-liners with shorter goal odds than FanDuel’s price on Malgin.
My best bet: Denis Malgin Over 0.5 goals (+680)
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Capitals vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
It’s never a good thing when your coach comes out after the first game of the year, a 4-3 loss to the Canadiens, and says you deserved to lose. But that’s the life of the Toronto Maple Leafs.
After a sloppy opener vs. a Montreal team starting four rookie defensemen, Toronto head coach Sheldon Keefe was not happy with the Leafs’ execution and called the team’s play careless. Now the Buds will have the quick turnaround after traveling back home to face the Capitals, who dropped their opener 5-2 last night in DC.
Sheldon Keefe: “Not good enough. We deserved to lose.”
— Jonas Siegel (@jonassiegel) October 13, 2022
The Capitals come in with some familiar faces out of the lineup — as Tom Wilson and Nick Backstrom are on the shelf — but they have been adequately replaced with Connor Brown and Dylan Strome. The Caps were outplayed early yesterday and faced a 3-0 deficit in the second frame and will likely have to rely on backup goalie Charlie Lindgren, who has played 24 games in the NHL over the last five seasons.
Washington will also have the advantage of seeing their former goalie in Toronto starter Ilya Samsonov. However, after basically being let go by the Caps last season, Samsonov will be motivated and have money on the board vs. his old team.
It’s a tough game to predict with both teams traveling on back-to-backs and coming off losses. The teams could play tight in front of their backups, especially the Leafs after being called out by their coach following last night's final-minute loss. However, this could also be a high-scoring affair with the mistakes and softness the Leafs displayed last night.
At this price, I’m leaning on the value of the Caps at +170, but the bounce-back and Samsonov angles are legit here and might be the reasons for the ML movement from -175 to -200 for the Leafs.
The Leafs closed at -240 last night.
Capitals vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
Over 6.5 bettors caught a break last night as the Leafs tied the game with under two minutes remaining. The latter portion of that game slowed down significantly at 2-2. It finished with 5.12 expected goals and just over 4.0 expected goals at even strength.
Last night’s game also closed at 7 in most places right before game time and we could see that again today with the 6.5 teetering on the 7. I’m always skeptical of hitting inflated Overs just because two teams are playing backup goalies.
Teams can play differently in front of No. 2s and that play is usually more conservative. Samsonov has a No. 1 job to take over after Murray left the door open last night with -1.48 goals saved above expected. He should have some help as Keefe will be preaching about turnovers after allowing too many odd-man rushes vs. the Habs last night. Being smart with the puck will be a major part of the Leafs’ game tonight.
With both clubs hitting the Over last night and starting backups, it could seem like an easy Over play here but I’d be happy with waiting closer to game time and getting the best price on the Under.
Neither team had any luck with the man advantage (combined 0-for-8) while neither top line had great production.
With the back-to-back, we could also see a more balanced approach to ice time, meaning both bottom-six forwards could see more action.
I’ll wait for a 7 and hit the Under.
Capitals vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The Capitals are 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs Maple Leafs.
Capitals vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 13, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Capitals vs Maple Leafs key injuries
