The Florida Panthers host the Tampa Bay Lightning in an intrastate battle this evening.
Florida has won six of the past eight meetings between these teams, and my Lightning vs. Panthers predictions explain why I expect that trend to continue here.
Read on for my NHL picks for Monday, March 3.
Lightning vs Panthers prediction
My best bet
Panthers moneyline (-120 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The defending Stanley Cup champions look like a team that could lift the Cup once again. Over the past two months, the Florida Panthers rank first in the league in expected goal share percentage.
The offense's generation of many high-danger scoring chances is a massive part of this success. Over this stretch, Florida ranks first in xGF/60.
The defense also does a good job limiting the opposition, ranking eighth in xGA/60. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning rank lower than the Panthers in all three categories.
Another disadvantage for the Bolts is they have to go to Amerant Bank Arena for this contest, where Florida is 19-10-2 this season. Tampa is just 14-13-2 on the road.
I also trust goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky to keep up with Andrei Vasilevskiy. The former is 7-2 over his past nine starts with a .935 SV% and 1.68 GAA.
This success will likely continue against the Lightning, a team Bobrovsky is 8-3 against over the past 11 meetings with a .910 SV%.
Lightning vs Panthers same-game parlay (SGP)
Panthers moneyline
Sam Reinhart anytime goalscorer
Aleksander Barkov 1+ assist
Sam Reinhart has scored nine goals against Tampa Bay over the past 10 meetings. A correlated outcome would be for Aleksander Barkov to record an assist, considering he skates alongside Reinhart on the first line and first power play unit.
Barkov has assisted on eight of Reinhart’s past 11 goals, one of which came in Florida’s 4-2 win over the Lightning in December.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Lightning vs Panthers odds
Lightning vs Panthers live odds
Lightning vs Panthers opening odds
- Puck line: Tampa Bay +1.5 | Florida -1.5
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +100 | Florida -125
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Lightning vs Panthers trend
Florida has won six of the past eight meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Panthers.
How to watch Lightning vs Panthers
| Location | Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise, FL |
| Date | Monday, 3-3-2025 |
| Puck drop | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCRIPPS, FanDuel Sports Network - Sun |
Lightning vs Panthers latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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