Following last night’s home defeat as a decent favorite, the Edmonton Oilers need to regroup quickly as the Battle Of Alberta will see its third meeting with the Calgary Flames tonight in Edmonton. With a 4-5 SU record since the All-Star break, is Edmonton back to its early-season ways?
With the noise getting loud following their historic winning streak, leave it up to Connor McDavid to put his stamp on tonight’s game, as the Art Ross-chaser has put up an insane 16 assists over his last six games. It’s always square to back big names with NHL picks, but a multi-point effort from ninety-seven is more than 50% probable entering tonight.
I break down the NHL odds and offer my free best bets for Wild vs. Oilers for Saturday, February 24.
Flames vs Oilers odds
Flames vs Oilers predictions
Connor McDavid is closing in on points leader Nikita Kucherov, who is eight points ahead of McDavid, but the Edmonton forward has four games in hand. Since the All-Star break, McJesus has 20 points in nine games, with 19 of those coming as assists.
He’s pointed in all but one of the games since the break, and has posted multi-point efforts in six of them. The former MVP has been shooting a lot, averaging 3.44 shots per game since February 9, and the goals could be coming tonight. He’s put up 16 assists over his last six games, and if 97 can start finding the back of the net, these multi-point games could be even more frequent.
The Oilers are slipping, and McDavid will save the team under the prime-time lights of Hockey Night in Canada in the Battle of Alberta. He has a point race to win, and the noise is getting loud and distracting in Edmonton. If the Oilers don’t put up a better effort tonight, the media attention could be even bigger.
The Flames shut out McDavid in Edmonton’s 3-1 win in January, but that won’t happen tonight as the soon-to-be betting-favorite for the Art Ross has 55 points in 25 home games this year, including 16 multi-point games and just one pointless outing. It’s chalky, but McDavid to score two-plus points at -110 is still showing value considering his splits, form, and matchup.
My best bet: Connor McDavid Over 1.5 points (-110 at SIA)
Flames vs Oilers same-game parlay
Oilers team total Over 3.5
First period Over 1.5
Hyman anytime goal
The Oilers are 58-30 O/U on the first-period total over their last 88 games, and following another losing effort last night, a big start will be paramount for the fading Oilers. Jacob Markstrom has been solid of late, but he is playing above his career numbers. The Flames have been one of the most inconsistent teams in hockey this year, and just when you think they might be on a run, they lay an egg.
McDavid has 16 assists over his last six games, which is wild production, and Zach Hyman should be a big benefactor of the pass-first forward. Hyman has a goal in three straight and has found the back of the net in nine of his last 14 games.
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Flames vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Coming off last night’s 4-2 loss to the Wild as a -175 closing favorite, the Oilers have not seen a lot of bettor’s money this morning as SIA opened the Oilers as -200 moneyline favorites, but that number has lengthened to -175 as of noon today.
The movement is warranted, as the Oilers are on the second game of a back-to-back while the Flames have been off since their Thursday home win over the Bruins. Edmonton was a great spot to fade last night as it was a look-ahead spot for tonight’s game where they will be rolling with No.1 goalie Stuart Skinner. Calgary will likely counter with Markstom, who is 6-2 SU over his last eight games with a 2.14 GAA and a .932 save percentage.
The Battle of Alberta has been dominated by McDavid and the Oilers, who have won eight of the last 10 matchups, including both this year, where they’ve outscored Calgary 8-3.
However, the Oilers have not been the same team that won 16 straight games following the All-Star break. Since the time off, the overvalued Oilers are 4-5 SU with a negative goal differential of 0.2 goals per game.
The amount of goals the Oilers are conceding is alarming, as their 4.00 GAA since the break is tied with the Blue Jackets for the fourth-worst mark in the league. It hasn’t been one or two games to skew those numbers either, as Edmonton has given up at least three goals in each of the nine games since its winning streak came to an end.
Calgary is a tough opponent as it has nothing to lose, and players are playing for spots considering the entire team seems to be involved in trade rumors. They are 5-3 SU since the break with a positive goal differential and sit just three points out of a playoff spot. This is a team rallying despite a front office that is selling off pieces but has struggled to be consistent all year long.
A deeper look at the Flames’ metrics at 5-on-5 does paint a picture of a team bound for some regression. Since January 1, the Flames rank sixth in shooting percentage and save percentage at 5-on-5. Those numbers are hard to maintain, and despite coach Ryan Huska rolling with three lines, there isn’t a ton of high-end scoring on this roster.
If this game turns into a shootout like many of the recent Edmonton games have (5-1 to the Over in its last six games), the edge lies with the Oilers, who have been in a lot of those games of late.
There isn’t much value on an Edmonton team that's playing inconsistent hockey and is on a back-to-back. Calgary at +145 is tempting after I hit Minnesota at +155 last night, but I do like the Minnesota offense more than the current Calgary one.
If you’re like me and thought Edmonton was looking forward to this game, hence a bad outing last night, then an Edmonton team total Over 3.5 at -125 might be the best way to bet this game.
I have no interest in the total, as this could be a war of a game between two teams that hate each other but nothing about Edmonton’s recent play has me wanting to hit an Under.
Flames vs Oilers betting trend to know
The Edmonton Oilers have hit the first-period Over in 58 of their last 88 games (+14.15 Units / 10% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Oilers.
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Flames vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Saturday, February 24, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN, CBC |
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