The Edmonton Oilers host the Los Angeles Kings at Rogers Place in Game 1 of their opening-round matchup tonight.
Edmonton is a series favorite and carrying considerable chalk for the first game, and with the go-to duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl leading the way, expectations are high.
However, L.A. is anything but a doormat and the Kings have a deep lineup with four centers who all drove possession and won the expected goals battle at 5-on-5. Read my NHL picks and Kings vs. Oilers predictions for Game 1 below.
Kings vs Oilers prediction
My best bet
Oilers moneyline (-175 at SportsInteraction)
My analysis
The Edmonton Oilers went 27-5-3 on home ice following the coaching change to bring Kris Knoblauch behind the bench. This is a dangerous team on paper and the underlying statistics suggest everything they accomplished during the regular season is sustainable.
Additionally, Edmonton has a pair of wildcards in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl who are both capable of winning a series on their own. I also value the Oilers having enough supporting depth to mix and match their in-game lines — especially with the home-ice advantage of last change Monday.
The Los Angeles Kings are a tough test because they’re strong up the middle, have playoff experience, and also have an impressive statistical profile. I just see three areas of concern that will make them susceptible against these Oilers.
Los Angeles finished the season with a second-ranked 84.6 penalty-kill percentage, but the Kings posted a 79.3% mark following the March 8 trade deadline. Edmonton finished fourth in power-play percentage (26.3%), so this special-teams matchup has the potential to favor the Oilers.
The Kings also had elite goaltending down the stretch with an unsustainable .931 team save percentage at 5-on-5 across their final 20 games. Statistical correction is ahead for the Kings in net.
Finally, Los Angeles projects to start Monday’s game with four balanced lines up front, and I’m not convinced that’s the formula — if there even is one — to beat Edmonton.
The Kings may need 3-4 goals to win and diluting the offensive punch across four lines isn't going to be the recipe for success on the road.
Kings vs Oilers same-game parlay (SGP)
Oilers moneyline
Under 6.5
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins anytime goalscorer
While L.A. spreading the wealth across four lines will limit its offensive upside, it should help the Kings mitigate the last-change advantage of the Oilers. Additionally, these were both excellent defensive clubs and ranked third (Kings, 2.56) and 10th (Oilers, 2.88) goals per game, respectively.
The Kings don’t want to turn this into an offensive track meet and they have the personnel to slow this game down and limit Edmonton’s quality scoring chances.
I’m targeting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins to score because he has positive regression ahead when looking at his shooting percentage.
He posted a 3.6% mark and only scored twice across his final 25 games of the season. After finding the back of the net 37 times with an 18.4 SH% last year, he scored 18 times with a 9.8 SH% in 2023-24.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Kings vs Oilers odds
Kings vs Oilers live odds
Kings vs Oilers opening odds
- Puck line: Los Angeles +1.5 (-185) | Edmonton -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Los Angeles +135 | Edmonton -160
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Kings vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This is a mature moneyline since SIA opened at Edmonton -165 on Friday and the Oilers have only moved to -175 as of Monday morning.
- The movement to the Edmonton side is consistent across shops and I'd expect there to be additional action on the Oilers ahead of puck drop.
- Pinnacle has tested a 5.5-goal total on multiple occasions since opening at 6.0 (-106/-108), but the lower number hasn’t lasted.
- Again, since this market has been available since Friday, the odds are telling us a 6-goal total with the Under carrying the higher vig is an accurate number as of Monday morning.
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Kings vs Oilers trend
Edmonton is 27-5-3 on home ice since head coach Kris Knoblauch took over. Find more NHL betting trends for Kings vs. Oilers.
Kings vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Monday, 4-22-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN2 |
Kings vs Oilers latest injuries
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