It's been two years to the day since the Toronto Maple Leafs last beat the Boston Bruins in the NHL regular season.
The NHL odds slightly favor the Buds to break that streak tonight, and my Maple Leafs vs. Bruins predictions expect Mitch Marner to make an undisciplined Bruins team pay on the power play.
Find out more in my free NHL picks for this November 5 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins prediction
My Leafs pick
Mitch Marner power play point (+220 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs look to get back in the win column after back-to-back losses over the weekend. It’ll be a tall task, however, as the Boston Bruins come to town.
It’ll certainly take a solid gameplan from the Buds to get the win tonight, but success on the power play could go a long way to ending this painful winless streak.
Toronto’s PP has been atrocious this season, converting on just four of 40 opportunities. However, the Leafs man advantage is far too talented to hover at the bottom of the NHL ranks.
I believe we saw some signs of the dam breaking in Sunday’s game against Minnesota when the Leafs debuted a five-forward PP unit in the game and converted on their first power play in seven games, ending an 0-for-20 streak.
Could that goal be the confidence builder the PP needs to get rolling this season? I think it could be, and with Toronto's man advantage running through Mitch Marner, his power play point prop has juicy value at +220.
Marner has factored in all four PPGs the Leafs have this season, and he's recorded a point in 53% of their total tallies on the man advantage over the last two years. If this unit is about to go on a heater, there’s a good chance the skilled winger will be involved.
The other trend lending itself to the Buds bursting out of their early season PP slump is the amount of high-danger chances they’ve created on the man advantage, ranking third in that category.
This should all bode well against an undisciplined Boston team that has taken an NHL-high 71 penalties, with a middling penalty kill ranked 17th in the league with just a 78% kill rate.
The Bruins' PK has also struggled with stopping high-danger chances, ranking 31st in high-danger save percentage (.588) while shorthanded.
So, as long as the Leafs continue to create grade-A chances on the man advantage, there’s been a history of the Bruins getting cooked on the PK. In fact, they’ve already had three games this year where they’ve allowed three goals on the man advantage.
Maple Leafs vs Bruins same-game parlay (SGP)
Mitch Marner 2+ shots on goal
John Tavares 2+ shots on goal
William Nylander anytime goalscorer
Marner has been more trigger happy this season, averaging 2.76 shots per game. He’s also hit this target in six of his last eight games this year.
John Tavares ranks 13th in the NHL with 44 shots this season, averaging 3.38 shots per game. He’s also had 2+ shots in 11 of his 13 games played this season.
William Nylander leads the team with nine goals on the season and was the one who broke through on the power play in the last game to give him the team lead in that department. Additionally, with Auston Matthews slated to miss tonight’s game, Willy should be the main triggerman on the PP and at 5-on-5.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Bruins odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins live odds
Maple Leafs vs Bruins opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto +1.5 (-190) | Boston -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Toronto -155 | Boston +130
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-130) | Under 5.5 (+100)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Bruins trend
The Maple Leafs are 4-2 this season as home favorites, which is in line with the 62% win rate across the league. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Bruins.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Bruins
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-5-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN4 |
Maple Leafs vs Bruins latest injuries
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